Nearly three quarters of US veterans favor fulll US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan

(April  23) Nearly 75 percent of US veterans and almost 70 percent of their family members support a full withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, a new poll released Wednesday by a conservative activist group shows.

The US has about 13,600 troops in Afghanistan. It has already started withdrawing some under an agreement with the Taliban. Within 135 days they are to withdraw down to 8,600. However, the agreement signed the end of February involved a prisoner swap that the Afghan government has so far refused to honor as it was not a party to the agreement.

The poll was by Concerned Veterans for America

The group has close ties to the conservative Koch network ad the also the Trump administration. The results show an increase in those who want withdraw from the results of an identical survey last year. The group has been leading public efforts to convince lawmakers and the Trump administration to severely cut back military operations.

Nate Anderson executive director of the group said: “I think this shows the fatigue of almost two decades of war. And I think there is increased awareness among the American public about how long we have been fighting.”

The poll

The survey was across the nation and was conducted April 7 to 10. Those polled were about 700 military veterans and about 800 of veterans' family members. All were chosen at random.

About 57 percent of the veterans polled thought that the US should be less involved in military conflicts overseas. This is an increase of about 9 percent from last year's survey. Just 7 percent thought the US should be more involved.

As mentioned for Afghan specifically 73 percent favored a full US withdrawal, with 69 percent of family members having the same opinion. In contrast, the 2019 poll was about 60 percent in favor for each group. Over half of veterans favored full withdrawal very strongly.

Withdrawal from Iraq also favored

71 percent of veterans and 69 percent of military family members supported a full withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. The Iraqi parliament earlier this year passed a resolution that all foreign troops should leave Iraq. However, the US has refused to discussed the matter. Trump even threatened Iraq with severe sanctions if Iraq forces US troops to leave. Although US troops are supposedly there to fight the Islamic State or ISIS the group has been mostly defeated and is in survival mode control of any territory. The US wants to remain to counter Iranian influence.

About two thirds of veterans polled also wanted to see US foreign aid spending reduced. 17 percent even favored an overall decrease in US spending. However twice as many, 34 percent wanted to see an increase.

Group director Anderson said he hoped the poll would dispel some presumptions made about the military community's support for overseas operations and help sway policy makers to move away from more open-ended combat operations.

Trump supports peace deal with the Taliban

Trump has supported the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan as outlined in the February peace deal. However, the deal has been more or less sabotaged by the refusal of the Afghan government to agree to a prisoner swap as outlined in the agreement. Efforts to negotiate the swap with the Afghan government and Taliban have faltered and the Taliban have renewed attacks against the government. As the US defends the government this has involved conflict with the US as well. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the president Afram Ghani faces a challenger Abdullah Abdullah who also claims the presidency..

Since the conflict began in 2001, 2,300 US military personnel have been killed in Afghanistan.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

US general claims 10 to 20 thousand US troops needed in Afghanistan to defeat Taliban

General Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the U.S. army said that the 16-year-old U.S. involvement in Afghanistan was a disgrace.

Speaking with Fox News, Keane claimed that 10 to 20 thousand more troops were needed to win against the Taliban. Keane made his remarks just as reports emerged that Defense Secretary Mattis would send about another 4,000 troops to the country. Earlier recommendations were for from 3,000 to 5,000 to be sent.

Keane insisted that the report of 4,000 additional troops being sent is only speculation but that such an amount would not be enough to defeat the Taliban saying: "There's no doubt the 4,000 will be helpful. But the real question is: Will it change the momentum of the war to our favor? My judgment is it’s likely not to." Given that the combat mission in Afghanistan is supposed to be over and that at one time there were as many as 100,000 U.S. trips in Afghanistan and the Taliban were still not defeated it hardly seems wise to send more troops into the country. With so many troops there are bound to be more casualties. The recent reported insider attack will be but a drop in the bucket. The Pentagon confirmed with Fox News that no final determination had been made about sending additional troops. Nevertheless the 4,000 number has been reported in a number of places. Pentagon spokesperson Jeff Davis nevertheless said: "No decisions have been made." An official told Reuters last month that 3,800 troops could be sent but it could be changed depending on how many troops NATO allies were willing to send. The White House did not respond immediately to a request to comment.

Although a year ago Obama set a cap of 8,400 there are believed to be about 2,000 more than that there on a temporary basis. Keane retired in 2003. He blamed the Obama administration for failing to change the momentum of the war saying: "It’s 16 years we’ve been involved in this war and it’s an absolute disgrace that we have not ended this war before, favorable to ourselves. When we took the 100,000 plus troops out of Afghanistan – just left 8,000 – we took all the support that the Afghan Army had," including "attack helicopters and anti-IED intelligence, communications and logistics. We have to put that back if they’re going to be effective." Even Defense Secretary Mattis admitted that the US and its allies are not winning in Afghanistan and had told Senator John McCain that "we will correct this as soon as possible"":“We want a strategy, and I don’t think that’s a hell of a lot to ask." Keane also claimed that Taliban safe havens in Pakistan had to be destroyed and that the Pakistani military had to cease helping the Taliban.

Obama's withdrawal from the combat role in Afghanistan probably helped him politically. The cost in U.S. lives creates a political backlash that U.S. politicians are anxious to avoid. It is unlikely that the U.S. will throw good money after bad and sacrifice more lives for a battle that it is not clear that they can win without completely destroying Afghanistan, leaving them with an almost impossible task of rebuilding the nation, a task that the U.S. has not shown itself very willing to undertake. Any move to double or even triple the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan is likely to renew controversy about the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan that after 16 years is the U.S. longest lasting conflict. However, the addition of a few thousand troops is as Keane points out unlikely to result in victory or even stop the Taliban from further advances.

Trump administration considering sending up to 5,000 more troops to Afghanistan

(May 1) The Trump administration is considering options that involve sending 3,000 to 5,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan. They would advise Afghan military and police units but also include additional special operations forces.

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These special forces would increase counter-terror operations against the Islamic State(IS) fighters who have entrenched positions along the border with Pakistan. America's longest war has hit a stalemate and local security forces have been overwhelmed by rising violence. The situation is less a stalemate rather than a situation where the Taliban are controlling more and more territory. The White House could come to a decision within the coming weeks and announce it at the upcoming NATO security summit scheduled for May 25th in Brussels. Trump has said that he would attend the summit. A senior Afghan defense official told Military TImes that NATO is looking for up to 13,000 troops in all including U.S. and allied personnel. NATO may have difficulty finding countries willing to provide such a large number of troops. In 2014 President Obama declared an end to the U.S. combat operation.

Army Gen. John Nicholson, hopes to increase the number of trained Afghan special forces. These already number 17,000 commandos and have spearheaded operations across the country. They have conducted almost 70 percent of offensive operations with about 80 percent of those done independent of U.S. advisers. However, as the number of U.S. troops increases and their assistance in battle situations also, there will be more U.S. casualties. Two Army Rangers were killed this week and another soldier earlier this month.

Two key Trump administration officials, National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis recently visited the Afghan capital Kabul in April in separate visits. Three hundred U.S. marines have already arrived in the dangerous Helmand Valley. This is their first significant presence in the region since 2014. The Taliban has just announced the start of their Spring offensive. There could soon be casualty reports of US troops. The casualty toll during the winter for Afghan troops was quite high. The U.S. government's Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said there was a "shockingly high rate" of casualties over the winter. Between January 1 and February 24 this year there were 807 troops from the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces killed. Just recently a Taliban attack on an Afghan military base killed more than 140 Afghan soldiers. The Taliban have named their 2017 Spring offensive as Operation Mansouri, named in honor of their former leader who was killed by a U.S. drone strike last May in Pakistan.

After sixteen years of a war the US is not even near winning, the Trump administration is going to escalate US involvement. The U.S. will no doubt become more involved in combat situations in an attempt to slow down if not reverse Taliban gains. Trump's campaign pledges to avoid U.S. involvement in wars such as this has been replaced by increased involvement not just in Afghanistan, but in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Somalia as well. The globalist faction led by Jared Kushner seem to have won out over the nationalist and more isolationist faction led by Steve Bannon. The U.S. also recently dropped the Mother of All Bombs (MOAB) on a mountainous area of Afghanistan controlled by the Islamic State. A recent article suggests that the damage caused by the bomb is being hyped. There is still conflict with IS fighters in the area with two U.S. troops recently killed. A recent video of the bombed area is appended.

Taliban attack on Afghan city of Kunduz creates humanitarian disaster

On Monday Afghan forces slipped past defenses of the northern Afghan city of Kunduz and there have been street-to-street gun battles every since.

Although government forces, backed by US special forces have announced repeatedly that they control the city, residents report that fighting is still ongoing in several areas and many are leaving the city. The fighting is leading to a humanitarian situation that is rapidly getting worse as people have limited access to water, food and medical care.

The UN reports that as many as 10,000 residents have fled their homes because of the fighting and those who remain are facing threats from the fighting. Dominic Parker, of the UN said: "Many families were unable to bring their possessions with them and are in a precarious position. We have had reports that some families have been forced to sleep out in the open and many have few food supplies." Included among those who have fled are almost two-thirds of the staff at the city's main public hospital after it was struck by rockets and small arms fire. The hospital is the main source of medical care in Kunduz after a US airstrike struck and destroyed a center run by Medecins Sans Frontiers last year. A doctor at the hospital Marzia Salaam said that the 200 bed hospital has been swamped by at least 210 patients many civilians including women and children who have been wounded in the fighting. She said: "Many of the wounded had to be carried to clinics in surrounding districts and private clinics in the city. If the situation remains the same, we may be forced to halt our services."

The US military command in Kabul claimed Afghan forces were defeating Taliban attempts to take the city and reinforcements were on the way to clear out isolated pockets of Tablian resistance. In contrast, Ismail Kawasi a spokesperson for the Public Health Ministry claimed there was fighting in every street and the situation was critical. He said there were additional medical supplies in neighboring provinces but they could not be flown in until fighting subsided. However, Abdul Hamid, the Kunduz health director said: “Today is calmer than yesterday. Some sporadic gunshots can still be heard.”

The attack happened just as world powers met in Brussels for a donor conference on Afghanistan. Fifteen billion was raised to help fund the country over the next four years. The EU said it would support a peace process that has been stalled.

India's deputy foreign minister MJ Akbar said: "The war for the future is being fought in Asia. We must stand our ground in Afghanistan. India does not believe in an exit option." At the conference there was also a deal to deport failed Afghan asylum seekers back to Afghanistan, a move that will compound the problem of internally displaced people in Afghanistan which already number a million.

US general claims 30 percent of Afghanistan population is controlled or contested by Taliban

The Taliban and allies control about 10 percent of the population. However, another 20 percent is contested leaving the Afghan government with control of 70 percent of the population.

The claim above is made by General John Nicholson, the commander of NATO's Resolute Support and US Forces in Afghanistan. Nicholson characterized the situation as a positive development since the Taliban are operating primarily in rural areas. At a press briefing Nicholson said to reporters:

“We believe the Afghans control or heavily influence 68 to 70 percent of the population. We believe the enemy control or influence about 10 percent of the population. And then the balance, roughly a quarter, is in play, is contested. This is a positive in the sense of the majority of the population is under control of the government forces and this primarily the population centers, and so on, and the enemy is primarily in more rural areas that have less impact on the future of the country.”

Although Nicholson downplayed the importance of the Taliban presence in rural areas, the Taliban raises funds in the areas, recruits and trains fighters. The Taliban then launch punishing attacks on urban areas including the capital Kabul. Nicholson also claimed that recent reports of concerted attacks on some provincial capitals were exaggerating the security situation, When asked what percentage of Afghan territory the Taliban control, Nicholson would not answer and said only that his estimate is based upon population control.

The Long War Journal estimate based on press reports, military and government statements, and the claims of the Taliban, is that the Taliban control about 10 percent of the districts and contests another 12 percent. Control means the Taliban are openly administering a district providing services, security, and running their own court services. In contested areas, the government may be in contol of the central city of the district but little else. The Taliban often occupy a center briefly and then leave as the cost of holding it is regarded as too high. The Journal also says it is likely that additional districts are also contested or controlled by the Taliban. These additional districts could very well bring the total population contested or controlled close to that of Nicholson. The Taliban control and contest more territory than at any time since US-lead forces invaded after the 9/11 attack.

Nicholson also said that there were up to 1,300 Islamic State fighters in Afghanistan. He claimed they received aid and guidance from the leadership in Syria. While Nicholson still described the overall situation as positive since the Afghan government controlled most of the population and larger cities, General Joe Dunford Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the situation was a stalemate in remarks to the U.S. Senate. As well as controling more territory than ever since the invasion, the Taliban is closing in on a number of important provincial capitals including Talin Kot, Lashkar Gah, and Kunduz. Kunduz already was taken once by the Taliban and then recaptured.