US House defeats bill that would have US troops withdraw from Afghanistan

(July 20) The US House of Representatives soundly defeated an amendment to the 2021 National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) by Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) that would establish a plan to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan.

Amendment was soundly defeated

The amendment was defeated with only 129 supporting the amendment while 284 opposed it. Only a slight plurality of Democrats supported the measure while all Republicans but two opposed the amendment. Libertarian Justin Amash supported the amendment.

Trump favors withdrawing all troops

In May President Trump had said that he wanted to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan before the November election. However, since then Democratic leaders have shifted to a more hawkish position and have been trying to prevent a total withdrawal. The Democratic leadership seems to be driven by opposition to Trump's position.

The US has been fighting in Afghanistan for 19 years now, almost two decades. The Taliban show no sign of being defeated. At the end of this February there was a peace deal between the US and the Taliban. However, the Afghan government was not involved in the deal and refused to carry out the terms of a prisoner swap that was part of the deal. Conflict has continued between the Taliban and the government. However, talks between the Taliban and the government may be possible to reach a deal on the prisoner swap and a possible cease fire and peace deal.

The US Taliban peace deal

The US and the Taliban reached an agreement on February 29h this year. The agreement would require US troop withdrawal but conditional on the Taliban keeping their obligations under the deal: "Under the terms of the deal, the U.S. commits to withdrawing all of its military forces and supporting civilian personnel, as well as those of its allies, within 14 months. The drawdown process will begin with the U.S. reducing its troop levels to 8,600 in the first 135 days and pulling its forces from five bases."

The US has already reached the goal of reducing troops to 8,600. All of the troops need to be withdrawn only my May 1 next year. Trump could further reduce troop numbers but keep some there after the election to placate hawks who would accuse him or withdrawing all troops too early if he takes them all out. He can leave some for a later withdrawal without violating the agreement with the Taliban.

Prisoner swap and Taliban government talks

The Afghan government was not part of the US Taliban agreement. As part of the agreement the Afghan government was to free up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners for up to 1,000 Afghan security forces held by the Taliban. However, the Afghan government did not agree to this. However, there have been attempts to have peace talks with the Taliban and also to negotiate a prisoner swap.

So far Afghan officials claim they have released about 4,400 prisoners but they have refused to release a last batch of about 600 inmates as they insist they are too dangerous to be released and that some foreign governments also want them to remain in jail.

However, the US and the Taliban are bother urging that the prisoner swap issue be resolved and that talks on a permanent cease fire go forward.

Ross Wilson the US ambassador to Afghanistan said: “The Afghan people have made clear their impatience. Start intra-Afghan negotiations now so that discussions on a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire can begin.” The US is apparently frustrated at the Afghan government's failure to complete the prisoner swap. As a result the Taliban have continued attacks so that there has been not the reduction in violence that had been hoped. The US charges d'affairs also urged the government to move on with the prisoner swap and talks:“We urge this country’s leaders promptly to establish the new government, create the High Council for National Reconciliation, complete the exchange of prisoners, and move to the opening of intra-Afghan negotiations.”

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Amid worries about the COVID-19 pandemic Trump wants all US troops withdrawn from Afghanistan

(April 28) With a peace deal signed in February between the Taliban and the 12,00 US, troops are already being withdrawn from Afghanistan. However, as concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic rise Trump would like to remove all US troops sooner rather than later.

The withdrawal according to the Taliban US agreement

According to the agreement signed the end of February over the following 135 days troop levels would be cut from 12,000 to 8,600 and five US bases would be closed. If both sides keep their commitments then all US forces could leave Afghanistan by spring of 2021. However, it is thought that the US wants to keep intelligence operatives on the ground. It is doubtful that the Taliban would allow this.

The prisoner swap

The US Taliban deal also promises work on a prisoner exchange ahead of Afghan talks due to start on 10 March, with the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners in return for the insurgents freeing 1,000 government soldiers. However, the Afghan government was not part of the deal and refused to release the prisoners. There have been attempts to negotiate the release prisoners along with talks but so far these have not resulted in a deal. The Taliban reacted to the government refusal to carry out the swap deal by resuming attacks against it. The US came to defense of the Afghan government exacerbating the conflict and negating any cease fire for now. The situation is exacerbated by conflict within the Afghan government as the presidency of Ashraf Ghani is being challenged by Abdullah Abdullah who held his own inauguration ceremony.

Trump complains continually that US troops should be withdrawn now

The present withdrawal of US troops is apparently going ahead at a rate that will see the deadline down to 8,600 by 135 days or mid-July being met according to Lt. Col. Thomas Campbell a Pentagon spokesperson. However, Trump wants to get all US troops out before the COVID-19 pandemic has time to spread too much in the country.

US officials worried about COVID-19 in Afghanistan

Afghanistan lacks health care and testing facilities. It also shares borders with Iran which has been hard hit by the pandemic, As a result US officials have serious concerns about its possible spread in Afghanistan and among US troops. One former senior US official said that Afghanistan would have a significant coronavirus issue even though it is not manifested itself yet. It will.

As of Monday, the Afghan Ministry of Public Health reported 1,703 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 57 deaths in a country with an estimated population of 35 million.

Trump advisers however, constantly try to talk him out of withdrawing all troops. They argue that if COVID-19 is such a danger to troops they ought to withdraw US troops from Italy which is far worse hurt by the pandemic than Afghanistan. Advisers want to try to fix Trump's attention on something other than his concern about drawdowns from what he had in his presidential campaign called useless wars.

Conclusion

Trump is often inconsistent in his statements and sometimes acts differently than he has stated he would. It remains to be seen if Trump will be convinced by the attempts of his advisers and officials to slow down any withdrawal. If Trump were to withdraw all the US troops now, the US would have little leverage to force the Taliban to keep its side of the peace agreement and would also leave Afghan government at risk of facing a concerted Taliban attack against it. The hawks in the Trump administration will muster all the forces they can to force Trump to slow down if not to stop withdrawal altogether.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Nearly three quarters of US veterans favor fulll US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan

(April  23) Nearly 75 percent of US veterans and almost 70 percent of their family members support a full withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, a new poll released Wednesday by a conservative activist group shows.

The US has about 13,600 troops in Afghanistan. It has already started withdrawing some under an agreement with the Taliban. Within 135 days they are to withdraw down to 8,600. However, the agreement signed the end of February involved a prisoner swap that the Afghan government has so far refused to honor as it was not a party to the agreement.

The poll was by Concerned Veterans for America

The group has close ties to the conservative Koch network ad the also the Trump administration. The results show an increase in those who want withdraw from the results of an identical survey last year. The group has been leading public efforts to convince lawmakers and the Trump administration to severely cut back military operations.

Nate Anderson executive director of the group said: “I think this shows the fatigue of almost two decades of war. And I think there is increased awareness among the American public about how long we have been fighting.”

The poll

The survey was across the nation and was conducted April 7 to 10. Those polled were about 700 military veterans and about 800 of veterans' family members. All were chosen at random.

About 57 percent of the veterans polled thought that the US should be less involved in military conflicts overseas. This is an increase of about 9 percent from last year's survey. Just 7 percent thought the US should be more involved.

As mentioned for Afghan specifically 73 percent favored a full US withdrawal, with 69 percent of family members having the same opinion. In contrast, the 2019 poll was about 60 percent in favor for each group. Over half of veterans favored full withdrawal very strongly.

Withdrawal from Iraq also favored

71 percent of veterans and 69 percent of military family members supported a full withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. The Iraqi parliament earlier this year passed a resolution that all foreign troops should leave Iraq. However, the US has refused to discussed the matter. Trump even threatened Iraq with severe sanctions if Iraq forces US troops to leave. Although US troops are supposedly there to fight the Islamic State or ISIS the group has been mostly defeated and is in survival mode control of any territory. The US wants to remain to counter Iranian influence.

About two thirds of veterans polled also wanted to see US foreign aid spending reduced. 17 percent even favored an overall decrease in US spending. However twice as many, 34 percent wanted to see an increase.

Group director Anderson said he hoped the poll would dispel some presumptions made about the military community's support for overseas operations and help sway policy makers to move away from more open-ended combat operations.

Trump supports peace deal with the Taliban

Trump has supported the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan as outlined in the February peace deal. However, the deal has been more or less sabotaged by the refusal of the Afghan government to agree to a prisoner swap as outlined in the agreement. Efforts to negotiate the swap with the Afghan government and Taliban have faltered and the Taliban have renewed attacks against the government. As the US defends the government this has involved conflict with the US as well. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the president Afram Ghani faces a challenger Abdullah Abdullah who also claims the presidency..

Since the conflict began in 2001, 2,300 US military personnel have been killed in Afghanistan.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Trump administration cuts One Billion from Afghan aid

(March 24) The Trump administration cut $1 billion in aid to Afghanistan on Monday. This followed an visit to the capital Kabul by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Two competing presidents cannot agree on a unity government

Pompeo tried to get the two who claim the presidency Ahraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah to form a unity government with a power sharing deal. In 2014 the two were in a similar position but a power-sharing deal was worked out successfully. However, this time around so far there has been no agreement. Both men have had their own inauguration ceremonies.

US Taliban peace deal may be in ever greater jeopardy

US officials were disappointed by and critical of the meetings even claiming that they dishonored the US and its coalition partners and posed a direct threat to US interests. Pompeo said after the meeting: “The United States deeply regrets that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and former Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah have informed Secretary Pompeo that they have been unable to agree on an inclusive government that can meet the challenges of governance, peace, and security, and provide for the health and welfare of Afghan citizens."

The political impasse may threaten the US Taliban peace deal. At the end of February, the Taliban and US signed a peace deal that included a prisoner swap with the Taliban. However, the Afghan government would not carry out the terms of the swap causing the Taliban to restart attacks on the government. When the US defended the government clashes with the US restarted as well. With the political crisis in the Afghan government there may be even more difficulty in salvaging the peace deal.

US may be pressuring Afghanistan government to follow through on prisoner swap

It is the Afghan government not the Taliban or the US who are sabotaging the peace deal. The US may be using the withdrawal of aid as leverage to force the Afghans to comply with the conditions of the prisoner swap. Officials have already said that further aid could be cut and that the US is doing a full review of its support for the Afghan government.

The Taliban are supposed to start talks with the Afghan government on power sharing as well and this is not happening. The US may have decided that the present Afghan government is a liability and are warning that no Afghan government will get US help unless they help realize US aims.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Another example of NATO's revised stories about Afghan attacks

This is just another example of the manner in which official reports involve periodically rewriting history. Of course the rewrites get little notice while the original accounts no doubt remain in many peoples' minds. This is all part of news management in the war on terror. Note that officials will not even reveal who made the raid let alone hold them responsible. It is no doubt special forces or even private contractors. These operations are not held accountable by anyone. However, the taxpayer is responsible for paying the blood money given out to try to make up for their murderous actions. This is from antiwar.com.

Relatives of Civilians Slain in NATO Night Raid Threaten Revenge Attacks
Survivors Reject US "Blood Money"

The survivors of a NATO night raid against a house party in Afghanistan’s Paktia Province remain up in arms about the slaying of several of their family members, and say that they have rejected US “compensation” payments of $2,000 per person killed.

“I don’t want money, I want justice,” noted Haji Sharabuddin, the head of the family. US forces killed five people, including three women, in the raid. One of the men killed was also a key member of local security forces.

The killings have sparked more questions than most of the night raid civilian deaths in Afghanistan, primarily because NATO issued an initial statement claiming they killed “several insurgents” in a firefight and made a “gruesome discovery” of the slain women.

About a month after the raid, NATO was forced to admit that all of the slain people were civilians and that the “firefight” in question didn’t involve any firing from anyone but the NATO forces. The eight “militants” arrested were all released, without charges.

But the real issue at this point is that, other than the “blood money” offered by the US, officials have made no effort to hold anyone responsible for the killings, and officially the US refuses to even identify who was involved in the raid, citing “national and strategic security.”

To Sharabuddin and his family, the thought of his loved ones being added quietly to the growing number of “extrajudicial killings” in the nation is unfathomable. He has suggested that if officials do not do anything to rectify the situation, he and his relatives will launch revenge attacks, up to and including suicide attacks. Though the US did not actually find any militants in their invasion of the home, they may well have created several.