Al Sadr plans grand coalition

al-Sadr has always been a nationalist but it would seem difficult for him to form a united front with Sunni militants when Sunnis have been attacking Shias regularly. However, politics creates strange bedfellows and perhaps the Sunni groups that Sadr is courting are not involved in attacks on Shias.

Iraq's al-Sadr harbors ambitious plans


By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA Associated Press Writers
© 2007 The Associated Press


BAGHDAD — From hiding, possibly in Iran, U.S. nemesis and radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is believed to be honing plans to sweep into the power vacuum made all the more intense by news that his chief Shiite rival has lung cancer. And he's betting the U.S. won't keep its troops in Iraq much longer.

Al-Sadr aides and loyal lawmakers have told The Associated Press the cleric's ambitions mean he will avoid taking on the Americans militarily as he did in 2004, when his Mahdi Army militia fought U.S. forces to a standstill.

Instead, the 33-year-old cleric plans to keep up the drumbeat of anti-American rhetoric, consolidate political gains in Baghdad and the mainly Shiite south, and quietly foster even closer ties with neighboring Iran and its Shiite theocracy.

The strategy is based in part on al-Sadr's belief that Washington will soon start pulling out troops or draw them down significantly, leaving behind a huge hole in Iraq's security and political power structure, al-Sadr's associates said.

Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi told reporters Monday that Iraq's military is drawing up plans in case U.S.-led forces leave the country quickly.

"The army plans on the basis of a worst-case scenario so as not to allow any security vacuum," al-Obeidi said. "There are meetings with political leaders on how we can deal with a sudden pullout."

It was unclear whether al-Obeidi was referring to routine contingency planning, or if his remarks reflected a new realization among Iraqi leaders that the days of American support may be numbered.

Al-Sadr also believes, his associates said, that Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government may not last much longer, given its failure to improve security, services and the economy. A government collapse is certain to be followed by a political realignment in which the Sadrist movement stands a good chance of emerging as the main player. Al-Sadr's loyalists have 30 of parliament's 275 seats.

The six lawmakers and aides spoke to the AP in separate interviews over the past week. Several agreed to speak of the movement's future only on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss strategy with outsiders. They stuck to broad outlines, declining to be drawn into specifics.

"We gave the government a historic opportunity, but al-Maliki did not use it and that's why we are preparing for a state led by the Sadrist movement," said an al-Sadr political aide who is among those who spoke on condition of anonymity. "An Islamic state led by the Sadrists is our future," he said.

The impact of such a plan — if implemented — would be far reaching.

An Iraq with ultra-radical Sadrist Shiites holding dominant power would seek to curb U.S. influence and bolster the influence of clergy-ruled Iran throughout Iraq and possibly outside its borders in the Sunni Arab heartlands of Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan.

It also could deepen the Shiite-Sunni divide and unleash a wave of Shiite militancy with offshoots joining forces with like-minded groups, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Al-Sadr is said by U.S. officials to have been in Iran since he dropped out of sight some three months ago and is widely believed to be increasingly relying on Iran as the main sponsor of his movement.

After weeks of claiming the cleric was back in the Iraqi holy city of Najaf, his backers now concede al-Sadr is, in fact, in Iran.

"Without Iran, the U.S. can crush the Sadrist movement," said Vali Nasr, a prominent U.S.-based expert on Shiite affairs. "When you have 50,000 to 60,000 fighters, you need a sponsor like Iran," said Nasr, alluding to the reported strength of the Mahdi Army.

Moving closer to Iran now would be a timely tactic since Tehran's main Iraqi client, the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, is widely thought to have forged closer ties with the United States and used a key party conference this month to adopt a new creed stating its commitment to Western values like human rights and democratic rule.

The Supreme Council's leader, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, has been diagnosed with lung cancer and is in Iran for chemotherapy treatment. His illness removes from the scene, at least temporarily, a major al-Sadr rival.

Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militiamen have frequently fought with the Council's own private army — the Badr Brigade — in southern Iraq, an oil-rich region where the two groups compete for dominance.

A preview of a Sadrist-led Iraq can be found in Sadr City, a crowded Baghdad district where some 2.5 million Shiites live under the virtual governance of the Sadrists and the Mahdi Army.

Islamic Sharia courts operate freely in the neighborhood. Girls as young as 7 are forced to wear the Muslim veil. Stores selling alcohol have been forcibly shut. Religious punishments, like flogging those who violate Islam's ban on alcohol, are routine.

"We want an Islamic system," said Nassar al-Rubaie, a Sadrist lawmaker. "We want a presidential system that will produce someone with a power similar to that of a Muslim caliph."

Much of the Sadrists' resolve to create an Islamic society, according to the lawmakers and aides, has to do with the movement's strong messianic convictions. In Shiite terms, this translates into making society sufficiently pure for the return of the so-called Hidden Imam, a descendant of Islam's Prophet Muhammad who disappeared as a child in the 9th century. Shiites believe he will return one day to bring justice to Earth.

"The hidden imam is our savior," said Amer al-Husseini, a cleric and a senior aide to al-Sadr in Baghdad. "We need to prepare for his return, both ideologically and practically."

To that end, al-Sadr yanked his five ministers from al-Maliki's unpopular government last month and ordered his Mahdi Army militia to go underground while the U.S. military stages what is likely to be its last major bid to quiet the capital.

Sadrist lawmakers, meanwhile, are pushing to have parliament adopt a decision demanding a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S.-led foreign troops.

Al-Sadr, from his Iranian exile, also has made overtures to the once-dominant Sunni Arabs of Iraq.

On Tuesday, Sadrist lawmakers met with Sunni Arab tribal leaders leading a fight against militants from al-Qaida in Iraq in the western Anbar province. In a joint statement, the two sides called for local elections to be held soon and for Iraq's rival political blocs to rise above their differences.

"We believe that the Sadrist movement is an independent and nationalist movement that we are ready to cooperate with," said Omar Abdul-Sattar, a lawmaker from the Iraqi Islamic Party, the nation's largest Sunni group.

But a Sadrist-led push to introduce a strict version of Islam in Iraq would be a bitter pill to swallow for Sunnis who account for about 40 percent of the population. Most Sunnis — Arab and Kurd alike — disapprove of the dominant role by the clergy in Shiism and view some Shiite rituals, like self-flagellation, as idolatry.

Nor is the Sadrist theology especially popular among other Shiites in Iraq.

Shiites living in areas under Mahdi Army control often complain of the heavy-handedness of the militiamen in enforcing Islamic tenets but grudgingly accept their sway because they see them doing a better job than security forces in protecting their neighborhoods from attacks by Sunni militants.

Nevertheless, Sadrist lawmakers Ghofran al-Saadi and Saleh al-Aujaili said the movement plans to vigorously contest the next local elections to wrest control of provincial councils from rival Shiite groups that benefited from the Sadrists' decision not to take part in the January 2005 vote. The Sadrists fielded candidates only in the parliamentary part of the election.

Holding local elections is one of several policy benchmarks that Washington wants al-Maliki's government to meet to ensure continued U.S. support, but no date has been set yet.

"We have a huge popular base and we are not going to let that go to waste," al-Saadi said. "We have a duty to meet the aspirations of our supporters."


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Does Maliki face an internal crisis?

As this article points out al-Sadr's support is crucial to the Maliki government yet Maliki has now said he will not protect al-Sadr's militia. Sadr has 30 members of the legislature supporting him and even six cabinet ministers. Maliki has agreed to take up the issue of a timetable for US withdrawal and Iraqi takeover of security but a timetable for withdrawal is just what the US refuses absolutely to give. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days. If the people recently arrested were a renegade group this would explain Sadr's lack of response and peace overtures to Maliki.


January 21st, 2007 2:22 pm
25 U.S. troops killed in Iraq Saturday


By Bushra Juhi / Associated Press

BAGHDAD, Iraq - The U.S. military on Sunday reported six more American troops killed in fighting the day before, raising the toll to 25 in the deadliest day for U.S. forces in Iraq in two years.

Four U.S. soldiers and a Marine were killed Saturday during combat in Anbar, the Sunni insurgent stronghold west of Baghdad, the military said. A roadside bomb also struck a security patrol northeast of Baghdad, killing one soldier.

Saturday's carnage also included 12 soldiers killed in a Blackhawk helicopter crash northeast of Baghdad, five killed in a militant attack in the holy Shiite city of Karbala and two others slain elsewhere in roadside bombings.

The parliamentary bloc loyal to the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, meanwhile, ended its nearly two-month political boycott after reaching a compromise in which a parliamentary committee would take up the group's demands for a timetable for Iraqi forces to take over security and the withdrawal of U.S. forces.

"We announce our return to parliament, we will attend today's session, and the ministers will resume their work to serve the people," Bahaa al-Araji, one of 30 lawmakers loyal to al-Sadr, said during a news conference attended by Sunni parliament speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani. Al-Sadr also has six loyalist ministers in the 38-member Cabinet.

The decision appeared to be a way for both sides to save face while allowing al-Sadr's bloc, whose support is crucial to Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, to regain legislative influence ahead of a planned U.S.-Iraqi security crackdown in Baghdad.

"We are on the verge of a new era. We will be victorious and we will achieve the major change through unity and fraternity and be our army's regain of its strength, taking responsibility and fighting terrorism," al-Maliki said separately during a ceremony for military academy students.

The first reinforcements of U.S. troops have already started to flow into the region. A brigade of the U.S. 82nd Airborne Division, part of the buildup, has arrived in Baghdad and its 3,200 soldiers will be ready to join the fresh drive to quell sectarian violence in the capital by the first of the month, the American military said Sunday.

But the deadly toll among U.S. forces comes at a critical time of rising congressional opposition to President Bush's decision to dispatch 21,500 additional soldiers to the conflict.

The U.S. military statement about the Karbala attack said "an illegally armed militia group" attacked the provincial headquarters building with grenades, small arms and "indirect fire," which usually means mortars or rockets.

"A meeting was taking place at the time of the attack to ensure the security of Shiite pilgrims participating in the Ashoura commemorations," said a statement from Brig. Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, deputy commander of the Multi-National Division-Baghdad.

Thousands of Shiite pilgrims are flocking to the city to mark the 10-day Ashoura festival commemorating the death of one of Shiite Islam's most sacred saints, Imam Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad.

Provincial Gov. Akeel al-Khazaali, who was not at the security meeting, said the gunmen, dressed in military uniforms, were able to drive their black SUVs — similar to those driven by foreign dignitaries — through a checkpoint on the outskirts of the city, 50 miles south of Baghdad, because police assumed it was a diplomatic convoy and informed headquarters that it was coming.

"The group used percussion bombs and broke into the building, killed five Americans and kidnapped two others, then fled," the governor said, adding that Iraqi troops later found one of the SUVs with three bodies of uniformed men.

The U.S. military, which has said that five U.S. soldiers were killed and three were wounded while repelling the attack, denied that two U.S. troops were kidnapped.

Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, a military spokesman, said all American forces "were accounted for after the action."

A security official in Karbala, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose the information to the media, said the gunmen drove to Babil province after the attack. The Babil police commander confirmed that they entered the region before disappearing.

Although Babil province is predominantly Shiite, some parts of it, just south of Baghdad, are Sunni and insurgents are known to be active there.

Saturday was the deadliest day for U.S. forces in two years. It was also the third-highest of any single day since the war began in March 2003, eclipsed only by 37 U.S. deaths on Jan. 26, 2005, and 28 on the third day of the U.S. invasion. U.S. authorities also announced two American combat deaths from Friday.

In violence reported by police on Sunday:

• A bomb left in a bag struck a small bus carrying people to work in a predominantly Shiite area in Baghdad, killing seven passengers and wounding 15.

• A parked car bomb also exploded outside a restaurant in eastern Baghdad, killing one person and wounding five, according to police.

• A suicide car bomber targeting an Iraqi army patrol killed one woman and wounded five other people in the northern city of Mosul.

Maliki drops protection of Mahdi militia

The change in Maliki's position is not all that puzzling. The US is clearly intent on attacking the Mahdi army with or without Maliki's approval. They are not about to allow Maliki to shield al-Sadr's group any more. By agreeing to US demands it looks as if he is not relinquishing sovereignty. It appears he has just changed him mind because of US evidence. Highly unlikely. Reports about what US intelligence have found are often suspect and often leaked as part of the psychological warfare that is going on and the media seems to blithely ignore or perhaps it co-operates in many cases.
It will be interesting to see what the returned Sadrists will do within the government. I have seen one report that says that the aide of al Sadr who was arrested was a rebel against al-Sadr so that Sadr will not rush to protect him or even complain.

Iraqi leader drops protection of militia By STEVEN R. HURST, Associated Press Writer



BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraq's prime minister has dropped his protection of an anti-American cleric's Shiite militia after U.S. intelligence convinced him the group was infiltrated by death squads, two officials said Sunday.

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In a desperate bid to fend off an all-out American offensive, the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr last Friday ordered the 30 lawmakers and six Cabinet ministers under his control to end their nearly two-month boycott of the government. They were back at their jobs Sunday.

Al-Sadr had already ordered his militia fighters not to display their weapons. They have not, however, ceded control of the formerly mixed neighborhoods they have captured, killing Sunnis or forcing them to abandon their homes and businesses.

Saturday's U.S. death toll climbed significantly to 25 after the military reported Sunday that six more troops had died in the deadliest day in two years for American forces.

The latest military reports said four soldiers and a Marine had died during combat Saturday in Anbar province and one soldier was killed in a roadside bombing northeast of Baghdad.

Nineteen of the deaths were reported Saturday, 12 in a Black Hawk helicopter crash, five in an attack on a security meeting in the Shiite holy city of Karbala and two others in roadside bomb attacks elsewhere. It was the third-highest daily toll for U.S. forces since the war began in March 2003.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's turnaround on the Mahdi Army was puzzling because as late as Oct. 31, he had intervened to end a U.S. blockade of Sadr City, the northeast Shiite enclave in Baghdad that is headquarters to the militia. It is held responsible for much of the sectarian bloodshed that has turned the capital into a battle zone over the past year.

Shiite militias began taking revenge after more than two years of incessant bomb and shooting attacks by Sunni insurgents.

Sometime between then and Nov. 30, when the prime minister met President Bush, al-Maliki was convinced of the truth of American intelligence reports which contended, among other things, that his protection of al-Sadr's militia was isolating him in the Arab world and among moderates at home, the two government officials said.

"Al-Maliki realized he couldn't keep defending the Mahdi Army because of the information and evidence that the armed group was taking part in the killings, displacing people and violating the state's sovereignty," said one official. Both he and a second government official who confirmed the account refused to be identified by name because the information was confidential. Both officials are intimately aware of the prime minister's thinking.

"The Americans don't act on rumors but on accurate intelligence. There are many intelligence agencies acting on the ground, and they know what's going on," said the second official, confirming the Americans had given al-Maliki overwhelming evidence about the Mahdi Army's deep involvement in the sectarian slaughter.

Earlier this month, Bush and al-Maliki separately announced a new security drive to clamp off the sectarian violence that has riven the capital and surrounding regions.

Bush announced an additional 21,500 American soldiers would be sent to accomplish the task and al-Maliki has promised a similar number of forces, who will take the lead in the overall operation.

Iraq's Special Forces Command division has already teamed with the Americans since late last year for a series of pinpoint attacks in which at least five top Mahdi Army figures have been killed or captured.

The neighborhood-by-neighborhood sweep, expected to begin in earnest by the first of the month, will target Sunni insurgents, al-Qaida in Iraq and its allied militant bands equally with Shiite militias, both the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigade.

The latter is the Iranian-trained military wing of Iraq's most power Shiite political group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

The first government official said al-Maliki's message was blunt.

"He told the sheik that the activities of both the Sadrist politicians and the militia have inflamed hatred among neighboring Sunni Arab states that have been complaining bitterly to the Americans," the official said.

Sunni Muslims are the majority sect in key Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, all of which have shunned al-Maliki. Shiites, long oppressed by Iraqi's Sunni minority, and vaulted to power with the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

Many of the leading Shiite figures in Iraq have deep historical ties to Iran, also a majority Shiite state, whose growing muscle in the Middle East is deeply threatening to the autocratic Sunni regimes in the region.

As the Saturday death toll among American troops was mounting, the military reported five soldiers had been killed in an attack on a security meeting in provincial government building in Karbala, south of the capital.

Thousands of pilgrims have arrived in the holy city to mark Ashoura, the festival at the start of the Islamic new year that marks the death of Imam Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad and one of the most-revered Shiite saints.

Iraqi officials said on Sunday that the gunmen who attacked the meeting wore military uniforms and arrived in black sport utility vehicles commonly used by foreign dignitaries — an apparent attempt to impersonate American forces.

The local governor, Akeel al-Khazaali, was not at the security meeting but said security officials told him the SUVs were able to get through a checkpoint on the outskirts of the city, 50 miles south of Baghdad, because local police assumed the vehicles were a diplomatic or official convoy and informed headquarters that it was coming.

"The group used percussion bombs and broke into the building, killed five Americans and kidnapped two others," the governor said. Iraqi troops later found one of the SUVs with the three dead bodies dressed in military uniforms, he said.

Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, a U.S. military spokesman, denied any Americans were kidnapped and said all "were accounted for after the action."

A security official in Karbala, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose the information, also said the gunmen who carried out the attack on the Provincial Joint Coordination Center were using SUVs similar to ones used by the U.S. authorities.

The official said the convoy of gunmen fled into neighboring Babil province. The Babil police commander confirmed that the suspects entered the region before disappearing.

Saturday's deaths of the 25 U.S. troops was eclipsed only by the one-day toll 37 U.S. fatalities on Jan. 26, 2005, and 28 on the third day of the U.S. invasion.

Across Iraq on Sunday, police and morgue officials reported 46 people were killed or found dead, 29 of them bodies, most showing signs of torture, were found in Baghdad.