US 'declaration' a setback for Maliki

This from Asia Times. THe US does not seem to understand that being seen as a US puppet is not a positive in most areas of the Middle East. Yet the US continually praises Abbas as if this is going to help Abbas rather than make him look like a puppet in the eyes of many Palestinians. The same is true of this declaration of principles agreed to by Maliki. Maliki is likely to be in deep trouble right away.


US 'declaration' a setback for Maliki
By Sami Moubayed

DAMASCUS - Sometimes, frequently nowadays, one doubts the wisdom of decision-makers in Washington. The case was clear, for example, with Syria and Palestine. When President George W Bush comes out to praise political prisoners in Damascus, he completely ruins their credibility in the Syrian Street, projecting them as stooges for the United States. When he embraces Mahmud Abbas of Palestine, the same impression is made on ordinary Palestinians who immediately write off their president as



a puppet for Washington, making it difficult for him - if not impossible - to discuss peace with Israel.

The situation now applies to Iraq as well.

For four years, the Americans have been pushing for a security breakthrough in Iraq. The White House has been desperate for a "success story" to sell on Iraq to the American public. Chances seemed slim earlier this summer as an increasing number of Iraqi politicians walked out on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. By October, his government had lost legitimacy, since it no longer included Sunnis from the Iraqi Accordance Front or Shi'ites from the Sadrist bloc.

The Americans held on to Maliki, fearing a vacuum if he left. So desperate was the US administration that it began funding and arming Sunni tribesmen in Iraq to combat al-Qaeda. This caused uproar in the Iraqi street, particularly among Iraqi Shi'ites, who claimed that the Sunnis would train their guns on both the Americans and the Shi'ites the minute they were finished fighting al-Qaeda.

They cited how US support for Osama bin Laden backfired the minute he was finished fighting the Soviets in the Soviets in Afghanistan in the late 1980s. When Bush came to Iraq, he had his picture taken with Abdul-Sattar Abu Risheh, one of the cooperative Sunni tribal leaders. Maliki described him as a "national hero". Seventy-two hours later, Vice President Tarek al-Hashemi announced a "reward" (or as some would say punishment) for the Sunni provinces working against al-Qaeda.

A total of US$84 million would go to the reconstruction of Ramadi, with an additional $50 million in compensation for its residents, along with 6,000 job opportunities. Shortly afterwards, Abu Risheh was assassinated near his home in Ramadi. Maliki blamed al-Qaeda. It was a clear message as to how far the militants were willing to go to punish anybody working with the Americans. Abu Risheh had not only fought al-Qaeda, but lobbied relentlessly with government authorities to amend the de-Ba'athification laws that targeted the Sunni community, and restore senior Sunnis to posts in the Iraqi army. Without him, Maliki - and Bush - have one less friend in Iraq.

And now, the Americans have done the same thing to Maliki. Over the past 15 days, a lot of positive news came in from Baghdad. One was a significant improvement in local security, estimated by Maliki at 77% better. Cafes - abandoned by night since 2003 - were once again swarming with Iraqis, thanks to the improved security situation. An estimated 1,000 Iraqis were returning to Iraq per day from neighboring Syria, thanks to better security.

The reasons varied. One was improved US and Iraqi patrolling of Baghdad. Another was a pledge by Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to bring all military activities of his Mahdi Army to a six-month halt. He had been accused of creating major disturbances in Sunni districts. Also, armed Sunni militiamen (working with the Americans) were able to keep al-Qaeda at bay during the months of September-November. Maliki seemed to be doing increasingly well.

The Iraqi Accordance Front, a Sunni bloc with 44 seats in Parliament (out of 275) agreed to reduce its demands and restore its six ministers to the Maliki cabinet. The Sadrists decided to end their decades-long animosity with the Supreme Iraqi Council (SIIC) that is headed by Muqtada's archenemy, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Both groups, who control all Shi'ite militiamen in Iraq, forgot their rivalry for Shi'ite dominance and decided to unite in order to bring stability and security to Iraq.

There was even speculation that Muqtada would restore his ministers to the Maliki cabinet when and if the Accordance Front withdrew its August resignations. Iran, which has been accused by the United States of funding terrorism in Iraq, had seemingly also decided to cooperate and reduce violence.

Things seemed rosy for Maliki, until this week, when Bush convinced him to sign a "declaration of principles" with the United States. Among other things, the declaration pledged to disarm all militias in Iraq, without naming them, and fire all militiamen who had joined the police and security forces under the nose of the Maliki government.

Widening rift between Maliki and Sadr group

I just wonder how long Maliki's govt. will be able to survive. There are more and more defections and even plans it seems to have a vote of non-confidence. So far the US does not support opposition groups or says it doesn't!

Rift between Sadr bloc and Iraqi PM widens
08 Jul 2007 15:47:54 GMT
Source: Reuters
Al


BAGHDAD, July 8 (Reuters) - A powerful Shi'ite bloc lashed out at Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Sunday after he accused it of failing to take a clear stance on violence, signalling a deepening rift between Maliki and a former backer.

Followers from the movement of anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose support propelled Maliki into the prime minister's office last year, also held street protests in Baghdad in the wake of the Iraqi leader's comments on Saturday.

"This government is at the edge of an abyss. It will collapse," said Ahmed al-Shaibany, a prominent cleric and member of Sadr's inner circle of advisers.

"Maliki ... wants to send a message to the (U.S.) occupiers: 'I can implement your requests' ... We tell you that you are committing a mistake," he said in a statement.

Another top Sadr aide made similar comments in a statement.

Maliki, himself a Shi'ite, on Saturday demanded the Sadr bloc take a clear stance against rogue elements within the movement's Mehdi Army militia that Washington blames for killing U.S. troops.

Maliki's comments came in the wake of fighting between the Mehdi Army and Iraqi security forces that has killed dozens of people in recent weeks in the relatively calm southern cities of Nassiriya, Diwaniya and Samawa.

The Sadr bloc pulled its six ministers out of Maliki's cabinet in April when the prime minister refused to set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

It has also boycotted parliament since an attack on a revered Shi'ite mosque last month in the city of Samarra and most recently rejected a landmark draft oil law.

The youthful Sadr has huge appeal among Iraq's Shi'ite masses but since the start of a U.S.-backed security crackdown in February he has largely disappeared from public view.

Earlier this year, U.S. officials said Sadr was hiding in Iran, although his aides say he never left Iraq. Analysts have speculated he had returned to reassert his authority over his militia, which the U.S. military says has begun fragmenting into splinter groups.

Sadr led two uprisings against U.S. forces in 2004.

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Al Sadr plans grand coalition

al-Sadr has always been a nationalist but it would seem difficult for him to form a united front with Sunni militants when Sunnis have been attacking Shias regularly. However, politics creates strange bedfellows and perhaps the Sunni groups that Sadr is courting are not involved in attacks on Shias.

Iraq's al-Sadr harbors ambitious plans


By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA Associated Press Writers
© 2007 The Associated Press


BAGHDAD — From hiding, possibly in Iran, U.S. nemesis and radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is believed to be honing plans to sweep into the power vacuum made all the more intense by news that his chief Shiite rival has lung cancer. And he's betting the U.S. won't keep its troops in Iraq much longer.

Al-Sadr aides and loyal lawmakers have told The Associated Press the cleric's ambitions mean he will avoid taking on the Americans militarily as he did in 2004, when his Mahdi Army militia fought U.S. forces to a standstill.

Instead, the 33-year-old cleric plans to keep up the drumbeat of anti-American rhetoric, consolidate political gains in Baghdad and the mainly Shiite south, and quietly foster even closer ties with neighboring Iran and its Shiite theocracy.

The strategy is based in part on al-Sadr's belief that Washington will soon start pulling out troops or draw them down significantly, leaving behind a huge hole in Iraq's security and political power structure, al-Sadr's associates said.

Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi told reporters Monday that Iraq's military is drawing up plans in case U.S.-led forces leave the country quickly.

"The army plans on the basis of a worst-case scenario so as not to allow any security vacuum," al-Obeidi said. "There are meetings with political leaders on how we can deal with a sudden pullout."

It was unclear whether al-Obeidi was referring to routine contingency planning, or if his remarks reflected a new realization among Iraqi leaders that the days of American support may be numbered.

Al-Sadr also believes, his associates said, that Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government may not last much longer, given its failure to improve security, services and the economy. A government collapse is certain to be followed by a political realignment in which the Sadrist movement stands a good chance of emerging as the main player. Al-Sadr's loyalists have 30 of parliament's 275 seats.

The six lawmakers and aides spoke to the AP in separate interviews over the past week. Several agreed to speak of the movement's future only on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss strategy with outsiders. They stuck to broad outlines, declining to be drawn into specifics.

"We gave the government a historic opportunity, but al-Maliki did not use it and that's why we are preparing for a state led by the Sadrist movement," said an al-Sadr political aide who is among those who spoke on condition of anonymity. "An Islamic state led by the Sadrists is our future," he said.

The impact of such a plan — if implemented — would be far reaching.

An Iraq with ultra-radical Sadrist Shiites holding dominant power would seek to curb U.S. influence and bolster the influence of clergy-ruled Iran throughout Iraq and possibly outside its borders in the Sunni Arab heartlands of Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan.

It also could deepen the Shiite-Sunni divide and unleash a wave of Shiite militancy with offshoots joining forces with like-minded groups, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Al-Sadr is said by U.S. officials to have been in Iran since he dropped out of sight some three months ago and is widely believed to be increasingly relying on Iran as the main sponsor of his movement.

After weeks of claiming the cleric was back in the Iraqi holy city of Najaf, his backers now concede al-Sadr is, in fact, in Iran.

"Without Iran, the U.S. can crush the Sadrist movement," said Vali Nasr, a prominent U.S.-based expert on Shiite affairs. "When you have 50,000 to 60,000 fighters, you need a sponsor like Iran," said Nasr, alluding to the reported strength of the Mahdi Army.

Moving closer to Iran now would be a timely tactic since Tehran's main Iraqi client, the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, is widely thought to have forged closer ties with the United States and used a key party conference this month to adopt a new creed stating its commitment to Western values like human rights and democratic rule.

The Supreme Council's leader, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, has been diagnosed with lung cancer and is in Iran for chemotherapy treatment. His illness removes from the scene, at least temporarily, a major al-Sadr rival.

Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militiamen have frequently fought with the Council's own private army — the Badr Brigade — in southern Iraq, an oil-rich region where the two groups compete for dominance.

A preview of a Sadrist-led Iraq can be found in Sadr City, a crowded Baghdad district where some 2.5 million Shiites live under the virtual governance of the Sadrists and the Mahdi Army.

Islamic Sharia courts operate freely in the neighborhood. Girls as young as 7 are forced to wear the Muslim veil. Stores selling alcohol have been forcibly shut. Religious punishments, like flogging those who violate Islam's ban on alcohol, are routine.

"We want an Islamic system," said Nassar al-Rubaie, a Sadrist lawmaker. "We want a presidential system that will produce someone with a power similar to that of a Muslim caliph."

Much of the Sadrists' resolve to create an Islamic society, according to the lawmakers and aides, has to do with the movement's strong messianic convictions. In Shiite terms, this translates into making society sufficiently pure for the return of the so-called Hidden Imam, a descendant of Islam's Prophet Muhammad who disappeared as a child in the 9th century. Shiites believe he will return one day to bring justice to Earth.

"The hidden imam is our savior," said Amer al-Husseini, a cleric and a senior aide to al-Sadr in Baghdad. "We need to prepare for his return, both ideologically and practically."

To that end, al-Sadr yanked his five ministers from al-Maliki's unpopular government last month and ordered his Mahdi Army militia to go underground while the U.S. military stages what is likely to be its last major bid to quiet the capital.

Sadrist lawmakers, meanwhile, are pushing to have parliament adopt a decision demanding a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S.-led foreign troops.

Al-Sadr, from his Iranian exile, also has made overtures to the once-dominant Sunni Arabs of Iraq.

On Tuesday, Sadrist lawmakers met with Sunni Arab tribal leaders leading a fight against militants from al-Qaida in Iraq in the western Anbar province. In a joint statement, the two sides called for local elections to be held soon and for Iraq's rival political blocs to rise above their differences.

"We believe that the Sadrist movement is an independent and nationalist movement that we are ready to cooperate with," said Omar Abdul-Sattar, a lawmaker from the Iraqi Islamic Party, the nation's largest Sunni group.

But a Sadrist-led push to introduce a strict version of Islam in Iraq would be a bitter pill to swallow for Sunnis who account for about 40 percent of the population. Most Sunnis — Arab and Kurd alike — disapprove of the dominant role by the clergy in Shiism and view some Shiite rituals, like self-flagellation, as idolatry.

Nor is the Sadrist theology especially popular among other Shiites in Iraq.

Shiites living in areas under Mahdi Army control often complain of the heavy-handedness of the militiamen in enforcing Islamic tenets but grudgingly accept their sway because they see them doing a better job than security forces in protecting their neighborhoods from attacks by Sunni militants.

Nevertheless, Sadrist lawmakers Ghofran al-Saadi and Saleh al-Aujaili said the movement plans to vigorously contest the next local elections to wrest control of provincial councils from rival Shiite groups that benefited from the Sadrists' decision not to take part in the January 2005 vote. The Sadrists fielded candidates only in the parliamentary part of the election.

Holding local elections is one of several policy benchmarks that Washington wants al-Maliki's government to meet to ensure continued U.S. support, but no date has been set yet.

"We have a huge popular base and we are not going to let that go to waste," al-Saadi said. "We have a duty to meet the aspirations of our supporters."


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