Donald Trump annoys Russia with pledge he will establish Syrian safe zooes

U.S. president Donald Trump has announced that he will establish "safe zones" within Syria for people fleeing the civil war and terrorism. Earlier statements by Trump suggested he would be less involved in Syria.

By establishing safe zones, the U.S. would become even more involved in Syria. Trump seems completely indifferent to the negative reactions caused by his continuous announcements that appear to have often been made without consultation or without thought of their negative consequences. Trump repeated once again that the U.S. should have taken the oil from Iraq when it pulled out in 2011. This together with his announcement that Muslims from Iraq will be banned from the U.S. for at lest 30 days has fueled anti-U.S. sentiment in Iraq and could place US troops there in danger of attack. He has also told Mexican president Nieto not to come to the U.S. if he wont pay for Trump's planned wall. He might as well of told him not to come. That is what Nieto decided. Now Trump could be starting a direct confrontation with his supposed ally Russia by demanding safe zones in Syria.

The U.S. was invited to attend the Astana peace talks on Syria but Trump did not send anyone. Now without consulting Russia, he told ABC:“I’ll absolutely do safe zones in Syria for the people. I think that Europe has made a tremendous mistake by allowing these millions of people to go into Germany and various other countries. And all you have to do is take a look. It's… it's a disaster what's happening over there. I don't want that to happen here. President Obama and [former Secretaries of State] Hillary Clinton… and [John] Kerry have allowed tens of thousands of people into our country. The FBI is now investigating more people than ever before having to do with terror […] and it's from the group of people that came in. 'm gonna be the president of a safe country. We have enough problems,”

Russian spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov suggested that the U.S. should calculate all the possible consequences noting that the zones could further aggravate the situation for the refugees. He said that Russia had not yet been contacted about the safe zone plan. Apparently, Trump is expected to order the Pentagon and State Department to compile a plan for setting up the safe zones. However, the president did not present any details of his plan at the ABC news conference. A draft order apparently seen by Reuters said: “The Secretary of State, in conjunction with the Secretary of Defense, is directed within 90 days of the date of this order to produce a plan to provide safe areas in Syria and in the surrounding region in which Syrian nationals displaced from their homeland can await firm settlement, such as repatriation or potential third-country resettlement.”

The setting up of the zones will increase U.S. involvement in the Syrian civil war and require more air support and even boots on the ground to protect civilians. Apparently the draft has no details as to what might be required or even where they might be. Trump seems to be issuing pronouncements with no thought of what the consequences might be. Perhaps he wants to foster conflict between Turkey and Russia as Turkey has also suggested such zones but with quite different motives. The draft also suggests setting up safe zones in neighboring countries but Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey already have camps housing millions of Syrian refugees.

Turkey is apparently just waiting the outcome of Trump's pledge. Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson, Huseyin Muftuoglu, said: "We have seen the U.S. President's request for conducting a study. What's important is the results of this study and what kind of recommendation will come out." He noted that Turkey had suggested safe zones from the start.

The increased U.S. military presence in Syria as a result of the safe zones also increases the likelihood of accidental clashes with Russian forces operating on behalf of the Syrian regime. Russia urged caution with respect to the safe zone plan and noted it had not been consulted. The safe zone plan is said to be part of the larger directive of protecting the U.S. from terrorism,l the same plan that includes a temporary ban on refugees who are fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Somalia. The directive appears to be more concerned with the security of the U.S. than the needs of Syrian refugees. So far there is no sign of a reset of relations with Russia by Trump.

Planned Syrian Safe Zone still not clearly defined

Ever since the U.S. and Turkey announced an agreement that would see Turkey fight the Islamic State(IS) and grant the U.S. use of a Turkish air base to launch attacks, there has also been talk of a "safe zone" in northern Syria along the Turkish border.

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The zone is to be a little more than 60 miles long. Now many weeks later it is still not clear who will be in power in the zone, how it can be kept safe, or even how it can happen given that both Turkey and the U.S. have ruled out using ground troops. Rebel groups will be the proxy force used to capture and run the zone. However, Al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front has ruled out any cooperation with the plan and announced it will withdraw from its front lines with IS in the area. The Front is angry at the continued U.S. bombing of its positions. It has also attacked U.S.-trained rebels who now have refused to fight back against the group. Many rebel groups are incensed that the U.S. attacks the Front. It is not only battling with IS but also contributes key fighters against Assad in many areas.

Originally it was thought the zone would include a lot of IS territory but more recently suggestions are that more of the safe zone will border areas controlled by Kurds. This seems incongruous because Kurds are fighting the IS and Kurdish-controlled areas are relatively peaceful. There seems no need for a buffer zone between their areas and Turkey. Such a safe zone would become part of the Turkish battle against the Kurds. It is not clear that the U.S. would cooperate in creating such a zone. Many local people in areas rumoured to be in the "safe zone" regard talk of the zone as empty promises that will not work. They see a continued bombing campaign.

Analyst Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut agrees with the locals: “I don’t think we will see anything approaching what even resembles a safe zone. If you’re going to have significant numbers of people sheltering in the zone, you’ll need various things — like electricity, fuel, water tanks, piping, clinics.” Neither Turkey nor the U.S. are drawing up plans for these large humanitarian and reconstructions projects. Instead they are launching a PR campaign for what he claims is an unworkable project.

According to international law safe zones are neutral areas where civilians are guaranteed protection. American officials envision a zone 68 miles long and 40 miles deep that would reach the outskirts of Aleppo. It would be a staging area for US-backed rebels to attack the Islamic State. This would obviously not be a safe zone as ordinarily understood. The plan also ignores that there are few US-backed rebels left. Most rebel groups receive no U.S. aid and are not on good terms with the US since the rebels main aim is not to fight IS or the Nusra Front but Assad forces.

The U.S. officials said the zone would not be declared a protected area. Turkey wanted the zone to serve as a refuge for Syrian refugees and prevent the continued influx of refugees into Turkey itself. If rebel attacks are being launched from the zone refugees would hardly be safe from attack.

Turkey wants part of the zone to be policed by a radical Islamist group, Ahrar al-Sham, that cooperates with the Nusra Front. The U.S. is unlikely to agree to this. Aaron Stein of the Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East says:“The plan is nebulous. The area is huge; it’s not well-defined. There may be local governance structures set up” in the zone but it’s not a textbook safe zone.”Given that the area will be a staging ground for attacks on IS, the role of organizations providing aid to refugees will be complicated. Refugees will no doubt continue to flood into Turkey to avoid what will be a battle zone. The appended video has U.S. officials denying there is even any agreement on the zone in contrast to reports from Turkey.

The outlines of the zone have been talked about since late in July. The original plan involved driving the IS out of a 68-mile-long area west of the Euphrates River into the province of Aleppo. The area would come under control of the Syrian opposition. Clearly it is not a "safe zone." The area would not be a no-fly zone but the US has already announced that it will attack any group that attacks US-trained rebel groups. However, those troops are few in number at present and obviously other rebel groups would be required to control the area. The plan would result in IS losing control of all border crossings into Turkey and help stop the influx of foreign fighters. The plan could also bring the U.S. in direct conflict with Assad forces should the US defend the area against Assad bombing or other attacks.