Several western countries prepare for intervention in Libya

As the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) begins to establish itself in Tripoli the possibility of an official foreign military mission becomes ever more likely.

There have been constant articles in the press about the threat of the Islamic State some exaggerating its successes and the extent of territory it controls. A second theme is that there are likely to be many more immigrants crossing the Mediterranean to the EU and that foreign intervention is needed to stop the flow. Most of the western nations ready to intervene have been waiting for the GNA to have control so that it will ask for military intervention and aid.

There are already special forces from several nations operating in Libya including the U.S., U.K. and France. They are trying to establish contacts with various militias. The west hopes they can be united against the Islamic State. The Washington Post reports:Planners at the U.S. Africa Command are now developing dozens of targets across Libya that American or European warplanes might strike. They range from the coastal city of Sirte, where the extremist group has established a refuge, to Ajdabiya, Sabratha and the militant stronghold of Derna. U.S. jets have carried out strikes against the group there twice since last fall.This seems rather odd. I understand that the IS has been driven out of Sabratha at least for the most part. The same is true of Ajdabiya from what I have heard. The Shura Council that occupies Derna is still fighting IS in the outskirts. IS was driven out ages ago. Maybe the Africa Command needs to be updated.

Ben Fishman, a White House official who was earlier responsible for Libya, said any U.S. campaign against the IS in Libya would be more limited in scope than its operations in Iraq and Syria. U.S. officials have been trying to seek permission to launch US flights from neighboring countries but so far Tunisia and Algeria have declined. There is no mention of Egypt. Missions will need to be launched from Italy, Spain, Greece or even the UK. Algeria is opposed to foreign intervention. Egypt too is wary of any intervention beyond its own on the side of the HoR and General Haftar in the east. Some analysts think that trying to bring militia on side with the GNA may actually cause more violence in Libya. The plan of the US, which coincides with that of the Libya Political Agreement, is to gradually absorb some of the militia forces into the national army. However, at present the Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar does not even recognize the GNA as the legitimate government. The House of Representatives (HoR) located in Tobruk in the east also refuses to recognize the GNA until it receives a vote of confidence in the HoR and there is a constitutional amendment.

Jean-Marc Ayrault, the French Foreign Minister, urged the international community to be ready to help the GNA if asked, including military support. In comments to a French newspaper Ayrault said:"Libya is a concern shared by all the countries of the region and beyond. The chaos which reigns there today aids the rapid development of terrorism. It is a direct threat to the region and to Europe...We must be prepared to respond if the national unity government of (prime minister-designate Fayez) al-Sarraj asks for help, including on the military front."However, Ayrault also warned that the international community should avoid the mistakes of the past as happened in Iraq that brought about extremism there and the advance of the Islamic State. He might have said the same thing about the intervention against Gadaffi.

A Libya International Assistance Mission has still not received concrete military commitments even after months of talks. Italy has promised to establish at least half the resources. Thousands of Italian or other EU troops could come to Libya to advise local forces on securing the capital. Such a move might simply confirm the suspicions that the GNA is imposed by foreign interests. Italy wants a UN Security Resolution and adequate security in Tripoli before deploying any troops.

Karim Mezran, a scholar at the Atlantic Council, said the Italians still do not have a coherent plan to help the Serraj government to deal with its militant foes: “It leads us to ask the question I’ve been asking from the beginning: Who’s going to provide the new government the support it requires on the ground?” The US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said that once the Libyans were unified under the GNA they would rise up to expel the Islamic State since it is largely a foreign force. If foreign military units come to Libya, the Libyans could rise up against them as well. Carter also seems to be wrong in thinking that the IS are largely foreigners. US intelligence believes that the majority are Libyan although there are many foreign fighters.

While the GNA seems to be gaining power in the west, in the east it is still not even accepted as a legitimate government. Until the GNA is able to meet the demands of the military and the HoR in the east, military intervention would be in the face of a Libya still divided. It is a recipe for more conflict.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/op-ed-usa-france-italy-and-u-k-preparing-for-libya-military-mission/article/462022#ixzz45Mp49fRp

UK and Jordanian special forces working together in Libya

The Guardian reports that British special forces (SAS) have been deployed in Libya alongside Jordanian special forces since the beginning of this year.

The Guardian claim is based on a leaked memo in which U.S. lawmakers were briefed by Jordan's King Abdullah on plans for Jordan's own special forces to operate in Libya alongside those of the UK. The meeting was in the week of January 11. The memo said that the king met with congressional leaders including John McCain, Bob Corker, and Paul Ryan speaker of the House of Representatives. The king remarked that the Jordanian forces could be useful for the U.S. in that Jordanian slang is quite similar to Libyan slang.

The UK Ministry of Defence did not comment on the operations of the UK special forces and none of the high-ranking US senators contacted would grant an interview. One senate source did admit that the U.S. legislators met with the king in January but did not comment on what was discussed. Jordan is a key ally of the U.S. in the Middle East, having provided it with over $15 billion in military aid over a number of years.

Angus Robertson of the Scottish National party asked that UK special forces (SAS) be subject to parliamentary oversight but PM David Cameron rejected the demand. Crispin Blunt, the foreign affairs select committee chair, said:“King Abdullah gives a level of insight that we don’t get from our own governments. He has given presentations to parliamentarians behind closed doors in the past. We don’t get that from our own ministers. When [the foreign office minister] Tobias Ellwood told us about RAF flights over Libya these were plainly in support of special forces missions. But when we asked for details we were told the government doesn’t comment on special forces...There is a tendency for the British establishment to work out everything very carefully and then present it to parliament as ‘a take it or leave it’ choice. And then ministers wonder why they have difficulties in parliament.”In an interview with Atlantic magazine recently, U.S. President Barack Obama criticized Cameron for not following through to ensure a smooth transition to democracy in Libya after Gadaffi was overthrown.

The UK and Jordanians probably have the support of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives (HoR), as well as the commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army, General Khalifa Haftar. In July of last year, Haftar was threatened with sanctions and named to be sanctioned by the EU. The next month he travelled to Jordan and signed a military agreement with the country. Nothing more was heard about any sanctions against him and he obviously has the support of Jordan.