General Haftar turns control of seized ports to National Oil Company

The four export ports in Libya's Oil Crescent seized by Libyan general Khalifa Haftar were turned over to the Libyan National Oil Company based in Tripoli.

General Haftar launched Operation Surprise Lightning on September 11. With little resistance, Haftar's forces ended up in control of four ports: Ras Lanuf, Es Sidra, Zuwetina, and Brega. Haftar subsequently turned over control of the ports to the Tripoli-Based NOC. I believe that the situation as it is now is the result of an agreement between the head of the NOC Mustafa Sanalla and Haftar. The agreement I believe was along the following lines. Haftar would seize the ports that were under the control of the Petroleum Forces Guards a group whose leader Ibrahim Jodhran Sanalla hates. He had vehemently criticized the deal between the GNA and Jadhran even though Jadhran, unlike Haftar, accepted the authority of the GNA. In return, Haftar would agree to turn over the ports to the control of the NOC. As a reward for doing so, the NOC would ensure that the rival government, the HoR government of PM Al-Thinni would receive a share of the proceeds from oil revenues that it found acceptable. Sanalla would also lift the force majeure that was preventing foreign ships from loading oil for export at the ports.

It seems Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secreatry-General (SRSG) and many in the international community were not aware of the deal or at least their actions suggest that they were expecting the deal to make it more difficult to export oil. Kobler said that it would make oil export more difficult. Six nations issued a statement echoing Kobler and also demanding that Haftar withdraw his military forces. You will not hear that demand repeated any more. The emerging consensus is that oil exports will now be quickly increased. As a recent tweet puts it: "Two oil vessels docked at #RasLanuf and #Brega today to load over 1.2 million barrels of crude #OilCrescent." Sanalla had made Kobler look foolish in claiming that oil exports would be more difficult. Sanalla hated Kobler for arranging the deal with Jadhran. He was also angry with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in that it had not been advancing the money needed to do work on damaged oil facilities. The nations asking for a withdrawal will no doubt be silent from now on about the issue and applaud the great leap forward toward greater production and export of oil from Libya.

For some reason the press often shows not the slightest curiousity about the most obviously important issues. To illustrate this consider the Reuters and Wall Street Journal's report on the merger of the Tripoli-based National Oil Company (NOC) associated with the GNA and the Bayda-based NOC associated with the Al-Thinni government and the House of Representatives. The issue of the division of the oil revenues is not discussed at all or even brought up. The Reuters report does say: "The NOC said it recognized the presidential council as the executive and also the parliament in the east, the House of Representatives. It would report to both bodies... It plans to make its new headquarters in the eastern city of Benghazi." Note that the deal recognizes the parliament in the east, the HoR. However as things stand now this is in fact recognizing a parallel institution: the HoR government of Al-Thinni supported by Haftar. The merger also agreed to move the headquarters to Benghazi, a city controlled by the HoR rival government. So much for not dealing with parallel institutions.

Yet this was not enough for the HoR, which rejected the merger. Whatever the deal was with respect to dividing revenues it did not satisfy the HoR. Al-Thinni PM of the HoR totally rejected the deal and among other things demanded: "Based on regional interest, Al-Thanni demanded that 40 percent in net oil revenues must be allocated to the eastern region and the remaining 60 percent goes to the western and southern regions." No follow up on this by the press. However a recent tweet shows that the deal is still not agreed upon and that the heads of the two rival NOC's will meet soon to finish the deal: "#Libya | Chairman of eastern NOC says he'll meet Tripoli NOC chairman next week to unite the two corporations & re-open oil ports."

The NOC will now most certainly be funding not just the GNA but also the rival government of Al-Thinni and the HoR. Haftar can make sure that the division of receipts is sufficient for adequate funding of his armed forces. The UN and Kobler go on about the necessity not to deal with parallel institutions. However, its monopsonic NOC has obviously made a deal that ensures a rival parallel government is well funded. If the NOC breaks the deal, the ports and oil fields could very well close again. We have returned to the two government system that existed when the HoR and GNC Salvation Government were rivals.

The lose-lose situation where there were no oil revenues may no doubt be replaced by one in which Haftar is able to see oil exported from the ports he controls under the auspices of the officially accepted NOC associated with the GNA. However the merged NOC is also associated with and reports to the HoR and will be forced to finance the rival government. The headquarters will even be moved to Benghazi where Haftar, Al Thinni, and the sanctioned Saleh hold sway. For Sanallah this is fine in that under the former two governments the NOC was also neutral though based in Tripoli. He retained his job and got rid of the hated Jadhran. He also made Kobler look like a fool. Not a bad deal.

Of course my view may be completely wrong. There may be no deal at all. Sanalla and Haftar simply want to save Libya from that pirate Jadhran and ensure that since Libyan oil belongs to all Libyans its increased production and exports will result in revenues that will be distributed to and benefit all Libyans. Given that foreign oil companies benefit from what has happened perhaps this is the narrative that will prevail and be upheld by experts.

Libyan Air Force chief criticizes Defence-Minister designate of Government of National Accord

The chief of the Libyan Air Force, Saqir Al-Jroushi, claims that the Defence Minister-designate of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) could be arrested after visiting foreigners in Tunisia without permission of his commander-in-chief.

Al-Mahdi Al-Barghathi, is the Defence Minister-designate. Although he is involved with Haftar's Operation Dignity designed to rid Libya of Islamists including those who supported the rival General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli, he is not liked by General Khalifa Haftar, the commander in chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA). Both Haftar and Al-Jroushi were named to be subject to EU sanctions last July but there was no action taken even though both reject the GNA. At the same time, Abdulrahman Suweihli, a Misrata businessman, was also to be sanctioned. Now, he heads the State Council, but since he supports the GNA now he need not worry about sanctions. Apparently, Haftar and Al-Jroushi need not worry either since they have too much power.

On Ainabaa TV, Al Jroushi said that Al-Barghathi would be apprehended if he passed through any checkpoints in Benghazi since he has abandoned the LNA and Haftar: "Nominating Al-Barghathi for the defense minister post is aimed at cracking the firmly united army in Benghazi. He will not be able to return to Benghazi again and his fate will be like that of Mohammed Al-Hijazi, the former Dignity Operation spokesman.”Al-Jroushi also noted that a key Gaddafi-era figure, Al-Tayeb Al-Safi, had met with Khalifa Hatar on Saturday at his headquarters in Marj and spoke out in support of Haftar and the army. He said he would encourage people to join Operation Dignity. Al-Jroushi said: “Al-Tayeb Al-Safi has got problems in Tripoli that date back to February revolution times, but he is now in his country and among his people, and it is possible that he goes on trial after the state of Libya is established.”

Al-Jroushi said of the PM of the GNA, Faiez Serraj, that if he treats the army incorrectly he could be considered a terrorist but: "He will be welcomed with open arms if he supported the “army” with weapons and if he reactivated the exportation of oil." Al-Jroushi said the situation in Tripoli the political situation is back to square one after Al-Swelhi was elected head of the State Council. He claimed to be contact with individuals in Tripoli who are opposed to Swelhi and loyal to Haftar who are receiving money and arms support.

Tomorrow, the House of Representatives (HoR) is to meet to give a vote of confidence in the GNA and also amend the constitutional declaration of 2011. According to the Libya Herald, there is a third item on the agenda, a statement condemning the EU sanctions against the HoR president Ageela Saleh. There is no mention of article 8 of the Libyan Political Agreement that takes away the position of commander in chief from Haftar and assigns it to the presidency council. Nor is there any mention of a meeting of the Political Dialogue Committee to discuss the recent formation of the State Council. Given the attitude in the east to the UN-brokered GNA of Haftar and his loyal supporters, there could be fireworks when the HoR meets tomorrow.

UPDATE: The Libya Observer reports that some Haftar forces tried to apprehend Al-Barghathi at Lebreq airport but his guards managed to fend them off.

Several western countries prepare for intervention in Libya

As the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) begins to establish itself in Tripoli the possibility of an official foreign military mission becomes ever more likely.

There have been constant articles in the press about the threat of the Islamic State some exaggerating its successes and the extent of territory it controls. A second theme is that there are likely to be many more immigrants crossing the Mediterranean to the EU and that foreign intervention is needed to stop the flow. Most of the western nations ready to intervene have been waiting for the GNA to have control so that it will ask for military intervention and aid.

There are already special forces from several nations operating in Libya including the U.S., U.K. and France. They are trying to establish contacts with various militias. The west hopes they can be united against the Islamic State. The Washington Post reports:Planners at the U.S. Africa Command are now developing dozens of targets across Libya that American or European warplanes might strike. They range from the coastal city of Sirte, where the extremist group has established a refuge, to Ajdabiya, Sabratha and the militant stronghold of Derna. U.S. jets have carried out strikes against the group there twice since last fall.This seems rather odd. I understand that the IS has been driven out of Sabratha at least for the most part. The same is true of Ajdabiya from what I have heard. The Shura Council that occupies Derna is still fighting IS in the outskirts. IS was driven out ages ago. Maybe the Africa Command needs to be updated.

Ben Fishman, a White House official who was earlier responsible for Libya, said any U.S. campaign against the IS in Libya would be more limited in scope than its operations in Iraq and Syria. U.S. officials have been trying to seek permission to launch US flights from neighboring countries but so far Tunisia and Algeria have declined. There is no mention of Egypt. Missions will need to be launched from Italy, Spain, Greece or even the UK. Algeria is opposed to foreign intervention. Egypt too is wary of any intervention beyond its own on the side of the HoR and General Haftar in the east. Some analysts think that trying to bring militia on side with the GNA may actually cause more violence in Libya. The plan of the US, which coincides with that of the Libya Political Agreement, is to gradually absorb some of the militia forces into the national army. However, at present the Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar does not even recognize the GNA as the legitimate government. The House of Representatives (HoR) located in Tobruk in the east also refuses to recognize the GNA until it receives a vote of confidence in the HoR and there is a constitutional amendment.

Jean-Marc Ayrault, the French Foreign Minister, urged the international community to be ready to help the GNA if asked, including military support. In comments to a French newspaper Ayrault said:"Libya is a concern shared by all the countries of the region and beyond. The chaos which reigns there today aids the rapid development of terrorism. It is a direct threat to the region and to Europe...We must be prepared to respond if the national unity government of (prime minister-designate Fayez) al-Sarraj asks for help, including on the military front."However, Ayrault also warned that the international community should avoid the mistakes of the past as happened in Iraq that brought about extremism there and the advance of the Islamic State. He might have said the same thing about the intervention against Gadaffi.

A Libya International Assistance Mission has still not received concrete military commitments even after months of talks. Italy has promised to establish at least half the resources. Thousands of Italian or other EU troops could come to Libya to advise local forces on securing the capital. Such a move might simply confirm the suspicions that the GNA is imposed by foreign interests. Italy wants a UN Security Resolution and adequate security in Tripoli before deploying any troops.

Karim Mezran, a scholar at the Atlantic Council, said the Italians still do not have a coherent plan to help the Serraj government to deal with its militant foes: “It leads us to ask the question I’ve been asking from the beginning: Who’s going to provide the new government the support it requires on the ground?” The US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said that once the Libyans were unified under the GNA they would rise up to expel the Islamic State since it is largely a foreign force. If foreign military units come to Libya, the Libyans could rise up against them as well. Carter also seems to be wrong in thinking that the IS are largely foreigners. US intelligence believes that the majority are Libyan although there are many foreign fighters.

While the GNA seems to be gaining power in the west, in the east it is still not even accepted as a legitimate government. Until the GNA is able to meet the demands of the military and the HoR in the east, military intervention would be in the face of a Libya still divided. It is a recipe for more conflict.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/op-ed-usa-france-italy-and-u-k-preparing-for-libya-military-mission/article/462022#ixzz45Mp49fRp

CIA-linked General Khalifa Haftar completes coup in Libya

General Khalifa Haftar, often called a "renegade," now has the support of the internationally-recognized Libyan government in Tobruk. His coup has been successful.

Haftar's coup began earlier this year. Hafter was supposed to have taken over control of Libya's main institutions on the 14th of February. He managed to appear on TV announcing that the parliament, the General National Congress(GNC) and the government had been suspended. He claimed that he was not attempting a coup but "a correction to the path of the revolution." He claimed also that there were troops loyal to him in Tripoli. 
Then-Defence Minister Abdullah Al-Thinni claimed that Haftar had no legitimacy and that there were no forces loyal to him in Tripoli. He also noted that there was a warrant out for Haftar's arrest for plotting a coup. While Haftar forces did not attack the GNC at this time, neither was the warrant for his arrest ever carried out. Abdullah Al-Thinni is prime minister of the new government in Tobruk. Al-Thinni now supports General Haftar and his second round of attacks on Islamist militias who have controlled Benghazi for several months. 
The first round in the present clash of what until now had been described as conflicts between militias loyal to Haftar and Islamist-dominated militias, began on May 16 when Haftar's forces began what he called Operation Dignity, as he attacked two Islamist bases in Benghazi. Later on May 18 the Zintan brigades, his allies, attacked the parliament and ransacked the legislature and declared the body suspended again. While Haftar has denied seeking power, he has indicated that he would be interested in running for president. 
A few — but very few — commentators have bothered to piece together what was transpiring with the actions of Haftar. An excellent summary of the career of Haftar is given in a long article in theWashington Institute issued in August. The author, Barak Barfi, has advice for the US near the end:"Washington and its partners should persuade the new Libyan government to appoint Haftar as chief of staff. Respected by his troops, he has the military skills and combat experience necessary to create a modern army. But most important, he is the sole Libyan willing to take on the Islamist militias that are preventing the establishment of a modern state"Another instructive commentary in early June this year is by Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director of Research and Consultancy at the Institute for Near East and Guly Military Analysis(INEGMA) in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Karasik has a PH.D in history from the U. of California in Los Angeles. Karasik speaks of Hafter making small but important gains in his Operation Dignity. He notes that his forces have struck the Libyan parliament as well as Islamist groups. Attacking and burning the elected parliament does not elicit any disapproval from Karasik but is part of the small but important gains that Haftar was making. Karasik also makes the interesting observation that among Haftars' loyal followers are a group of 500-1000 special forces troops who received training somewhere in Eastern Europe according to an Arab official.
Karasik suggests that Haftar's actions will curry favor with those who want a future state like that in Egypt and that Egypt could very well help Haftar by sending in Egyptian special forces to help out against Islamist militias. Mysterious air night bombings during the Islamist takeover of Tripoli were attributed to the UAE and Egypt by the rebels and at first also by the US. Recent air attacks in Benghazi against Islamist militias are also attributed to Egypt. Karasik was prophetic. Near the end of the article Karasik writes: Will General Haftar be the next charismatic, nationalist leader of Libya? General Haftar’s vision for Libya seems to be already in place and his appeal to a good number of Libyans is evident. With additional victories and the wiping out of the opposition, General Haftar’s portrait will soon be posted not only on buildings and streets but across cyberspace. General Haftar has already congratulated President Sisi for his victory. Will President Sisi congratulate a President Haftar in the near future? Only time will tell, especially with a pending legislative election on June 25, 2014.This would all be to the good according to Karasik since Egypt along with Haftar he claims are reversing Libya's decline with back-up support from the US. Haftar's militia have suddenly dissolved and in effect he is now the recognized Libyan army. He even has a green light to "liberate" Benghazi and Tripoli:Libya’s internationally recognized government ordered on Tuesday its military, led by renegade General Khalifa Haftar, to advance on the capital Tripoli and called for a civil disobedience there against armed Islamist groups. Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani’s cabinet said in statement posted on Facebook that the armed forces have the green light to “liberate” Tripoli “and state institutions from the grip of armed groups.”Apparently, the arrest warrant issued against Haftar for his attempted coup is now void.The European Council recently set out its position on the current conflict.The EU urges all parties to urgently observe an unconditional ceasefire. The EU is convinced that there is no military solution to this conflict. Only a political solution can provide a sustainable way forward and contribute to peace and stability in Libya.Don't expect the Council to now condemn the attacks ordered by the Tobruk government on Benghazi and Tripoli. Most of the document is meant to provide legitimacy to that government. The peace process is all a sham and most of the Council document is rhetorical garbage. There is a civil war which will be turned into a war against terrorism by the media and by western officials and their allies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

CIA-Linked General Haftar claims responsibility for second bombing on Tripoli

For the second time in a week CIA-linked General Haftar has claimed responsibility for an attack by air on targets mostly associated with Operation Dawn. The Misrata militia are one of the main groups involved with Operation Dawn.

Reuters reports: The air force of Libya's renegade general Khalifa Haftar on Saturday attacked positions of Islamist-leaning militia in Tripoli for the second time in less than a week, one of his commanders said. The group attacked, Operation Dawn, said the attacks killed ten people and wounded dozens more. A local television station spoke of not one plane but of planes hitting four positions held by Operation Dawn. A spokesperson for Operation Dawn said that buildings of the state oil firm al-Waha near the airport were also hit, as well as the headquarters of the chief of staff that was under Operation Dawn control. Haftar is not believed to be in control of any aircraft that had the ability to carry out these night raids. Local Libyan TV stations speculated that the plane may have come from neighboring countries such as Egypt or western countries concerned about Libya becoming a failed state and a haven for Islamic militants. It is hard to see how an isolated bombing of a few positions held by pro-Islamist militias would do anything other than make the situation worse.

 Even though this is the second set of bombings within a week, mainstream press interest seems minimal and so far there are almost no analytical articles trying to piece together what is happening. Most reports do not mention Haftar's links to the CIA nor do the most recent reports I have read mention Haftar's own remarks to the effect that these bombings are a joint effort with the international community. 

An earlier article notes about the first strikes on Monday this week: The source told New York Times journalist Osama al-Fitory that the bombs were dropped by a Sukhoi Su-24 plane, in a “joint operation” between Haftar’s forces and the international community." The Libyan air force is not believed to have such a plane which is a Soviet era aircraft. Authorities in Egypt have refused to comment as to whether an Egyptian aircraft was involved according to one source. The same source notes that some in Libya are suggesting the plane was obtained from Russia. However, there does not even seem to be any confirmation that the plane was the Sukhoi Su-24 let alone where it came from. Haftar's own remarks suggest that the plane could be part of the foreign or international community support for his operation.

 The second strike may represent some desperation on the part of the Haftar-allied militias. Fighters of the pro-Islamist Libyan Central Shield umbrella group claim to have now captured the airport. This was reported on a TV station that allegedly has links to the fighters. This would be a major defeat for the Zintan brigades who previously provided security for the airport even though they are the same group that earlier, on Haftar's behalf, attacked parliament and burned it as well as kidnapping a number of legislators. None of this seems to be important news in the west. The only important event since the downfall of Gadaffi for many in the western media has been an attack on the consulate in Benghazi that killed the American ambassador and several other Americans.

 The Libyan Central Shield also took control of an army base south of Tripoli which was one of the targets in the latest air strike as well as a nearby warehouse. General Haftar was accused by the former government of mounting a coup. However, the new parliament is said to have a majority of anti-Islamists who may be more favorable to Haftar, although since all candidates ran as independents it may be too soon to assess their leanings. A long, detailed, excellent account of the career of General Haftar by Barak Barfi who is a research fellow at the New American Foundation can be found here . One of his recommendations as to what the US should do in Libya is particularly interesting:

 Washington and its partners should persuade the new Libyan government to appoint Haftar as chief of staff. Respected by his troops, he has the military skills and combat experience necessary to create a modern army. But most important, he is the sole Libyan willing to take on the Islamist militias that are preventing the establishment of a modern state 

 In May of this year, Haftar began his Operation Dignity with unauthorized attacks on two Islamist militia bases in Benghazi. As of now his own base has been captured by an umbrella group of Islamic militias. The group also is said to control Benghazi and Haftar is apparently confined to an airport on the outskirts. The new Libyan parliament was to meet in Benghazi where Haftar is based rather than Tripoli the capital and former site of parliament. The new parliament had to meet in the far eastern city of Tobruk. An Al Jazeera documentary from June of this year is appended and has some discussion of Operation Dignity as well as reporting on the varying attitudes toward Haftar and his anti-Islamist program.