Houthi rebels try to extend their control while UN tries to broker political deal in Yemen

Houthi rebels who have taken control of the government in Yemen have extended their control into areas where they now face resistance from well-armed Sunni tribesmen as well as the Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP). Nadwa Dawsari, a researcher on Yemeni tribe, said of the Houthis who have expanded their influence from their base in North Yemen east to the Red Sea and south to capture the capital Sanaa and even south into territory where Sunnis dominate:" "Traditional Yemeni political actors used to find middle ground and didn't let their clashes lead to a full-blown civil war. The Houthis don't seem to be interested in compromising. They mix a lack of experience in politics with, as their own leader has said, limitless ambitions. The fact that Iran is involved aggravates things and brings in a regional dimension that makes a conflict harder to avoid.""

While there may not have been a full-blown civil war in Yemen for some time there was an extended conflict in which radical jihadist groups were dislodged from areas they controlled. This conflict continues as AQAP and other jihadist groups use guerrilla tactics against the government. In some areas AQAP appears to be joining up with local Sunni tribes against the Shia Houthis. This can only strengthen AQAP. Dawsari rightly notes that intermittent government attacks in the past on areas of Houthi control in the north destroyed whole villages. Ironically, the former president Saleh, who attacked the Houthis while in power, now appears to be allied with them. He still has considerable influence in the army. The Houthis were able to take control in Sanaa, the capital, without much resistance from Yemeni armed forces.

 The Houthis would like to extend their control to areas that have resources that could provide revenue to operate the government. The Houthi leader, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, warned leaders in areas not under Houthi control: "If people try to play games which affect the economy, the people will resist them. The revolution, the people, the army and the security forces will stand against them." Saudi Arabia withdrew all aid from Yemen late last year. The High Revolutionary Council which at present is running the government is busy trying for create state institutions that confirm to the Constitutional Declaration as well as "drawing up the conditions and standards as well as mechanisms to select members of the National Council."The Council is the group that will form a transitional government before new elections.

As well as facing opposition from Sunni tribes in the south, the Houthi government faces a problem of finance to pay public salaries and grow the economy. They need control of areas such as Marib province that contains not only oil but generating plants for electricity. The Houthis may face fierce resistance by Sunnis who are well armed with Grad and Katyusha rockets and anti-aircraft missiles. Sheikh Hamad Wuhayt leader of a group of Sunni fighters in Marib said: "We'll blow up the oil and gas wells if the Houthis use planes after the air force fell into their control, and we'll cut off the road to the capital." Tribal leaders claim that Saudi Arabia continues to pay them cash allowances even though aid has been cut off to the Yemen government. They deny that Saudi Arabia provides them arms. Saudi Arabia may worry that as Sunni tribes forge alliances with AQAP that some arms provided to Sunni tribes could end up with AQAP. Already AQAP over ran a military base in the south capturing many weapons as the Yemen forces who manned the base put up little resistance as they did not want troops supporting the Houthi government to take it over.

The UN has opposed the Houthi coup:"The United Nations Security Council on Sunday unanimously adopted a resolution demanding that Shiite rebels immediately relinquish control of Yemen’s government in a crisis that has pushed the Arab world’s poorest country near collapse." The resolution is not under Chapter 7 of the UN charter allowing military enforcement of the resolution. The resolution condemns what it calls the group's illegitimate seizure of power. Actually the Houthis were hoping that the UN talks would produce a government that they could accept but they made little progress. The U.S.-allied president Hadi and his whole cabinet resigned after they were unable to produce a solution acceptable to the Houthis. The Houthis realize that they are a minority in Yemen and would like to control the makeup of the government rather than rule themselves. Only when the UN talks appeared not to be able to work out a political solution did they step in and take power. They probably realize that they will need allies in areas where they lack control. The group even sacked one of its top military commanders who failed to reach a settlement with other political factions.

The southern secessionist movement, Al-Hirak, has offered to work with the Shiite Houthi movement to ease the political crisis. The group may see the Houthi power grab as an opportunity bargain for more autonomy for the south. Both the Houthis and southern secessionists rejected the division of Yemen into six federal areas. Mohamed Helboub, a senior member of Al-Hirak, claims "“The Houthis are not ready or capable of carrying out the task they have taken up, particularly as they did not think they would reach this position so quickly. They have now crossed a line and they will find it very difficult to go back..[However], as the Houthis are part of Yemen’s political makeup, we are ready to work with them to find a way out of this quagmire."" Al-Hirak has been pushing for a possible complete separation and the formation of an independent state in the south such as existed previously before unification. Helboub went on: "We are looking for a comprehensive national solution, and if this solution is incumbent on Yemen to be split into two separate states, then that is what we will do." The Houthis may see granting considerable autonomy or even independence might be preferable to trying to rule in an area quite hostile to them.

 The increasing unrest in Yemen has led to the US evacuating their embassy personnel and also for the Philippines to order an evacuation of all Filipino nationals from Yemen. Recently, there are reports, as exemplified by the appended video, that UN-sponsored talks have brought the parties close to a political deal. It remains to be seen whether the Houthis will accept or respect any such deal.

Al Qaeda group takes over army base in South Yemen as US and UK close embassies

Both the US and UK close their embassies in Yemen as security deteriorates after Houthi rebels took over government. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula(AQAP) took control of an army base in the south.

Only four Yemeni soldiers and one AQAP fighter were killed in the raid. Members of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, took control of the base, a garrison for the Yemeni army’s 19th brigade, then freed some 60 captured soldiers, according to government officials and a media liaison for AQAP. The attackers seized many weapons and even off road vehicles. The base is in the southern province of Shabwa. AQAP has had repeated clashes with the forces of the Houthi rebels who recently took power in Yemen after the failure of a political compromise. This is AQAP's biggest success on the battlefield since the Houthis took power. The US has closed it embassy in Yemen temporarily. A statement from the embassy in the capital Sanaa said: "Recent unilateral actions disrupted the political transition process in Yemen, creating the risk that renewed violence would threaten Yemenis and the diplomatic community in Sana’a,"

Reports say that US vehicles were seized at the airport as embassy staff were evacuated. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said the vehicles had been confiscated. Hower, Hussein Ezzi, a Houthi spokesperson, said that 30 US vehicles that were at the airport would be handed over to the UN and that the whole affair was a misunderstanding. Only a few moments later the UK embassy also announced it was evacuating its staff as well and closing: "The security situation in Yemen has continued to deteriorate over recent days. Regrettably we now judge that our embassy staff and premises are at increased risk. We have therefore decided to withdraw diplomatic staff and temporarily suspend the operations of the British Embassy in Sana'a." France, Germany, and Italy also closed their embassies citing the security situation.

The move may be a prelude to cutting aid to the Houthi government after it forced the resignation of US and western ally former president Mansour Hadi before finally taking power themselves. The UN special envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar in an interview said: “We believe the situation is very dangerous. Yemen is on the brink of civil war”. While the Houthi are bitter enemies of AQAP, they are also anti-American and opposed to drone strikes. The former government cooperated closely with US operations in Yemen.

 Although the Yemen embassy may be closed, drone operations could very well continue and there are also special forces in Yemen who may remain. Presence of US forces was confirmed as long ago as 2012. While US operations against terrorism in Yemen will continue, they may not have the support of the Houthi government even though AQAP is a common enemy. Apparently, many of the army brigades in the south are opposed to the Houthi rule. This might explain why the battle for the base appears to have been brief with few casualties. It would also explain why the captured soldiers were released by AQAP. AQAP may be taking advantage of splits within the armed forces that are now under the control of a Supreme Security Council dominated by Houthi members. AQAP attacked the base after learning that the base was to be handed over to Houthi forces. The base would provide a staging area that the Houthis could use for attacks on adjacent Sunni dominated areas in Marib and Shabwa provinces. Some Sunni tribes are becoming allies of AQAP in battling the advance of Houthis into Sunni areas.

Conflict continues in Yemen

The National Dialogue Conference(NDC) in Yemen was held between March 18, 2013 and January 24, 2014. The Conference was a transitional dialogue sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) subsequent to former president Saleh yielding power.

The NDC was plagued by problems from the beginning. Many in the southern separatist movement refused to join in the dialogue. There were problems with the Houthi separatists in the north as well who ultimately withdrew after two of their representatives were assassinated. The Dialogue members agreed that Yemen would become a federal system with six regions. Sanaa the capital and Aden the former capital of a separate southern state would also have special status. The federal system was rejected by southern leaders including Ali Ahmed who had been part of the NDC.

Many praised the dialogue including Marie Harf who was then a spokesperson for the US State Dept.: "The debates, discussions and compromises throughout the National Dialogue process are evidence of the will of the Yemeni people to work together constructively for the future of their country.” The Houthi leaders and the southern separatist leaders, both those who attended the NDC and those who did not, rejected the federal system proposed. Since that time, the Houthi's have extended their power from the north southward seizing the capital Sanaa and west to a port on the Red Sea. According to the Abaad Centre for Strategic Studies the Shia Houthi rebels now control up to 70 percent of the armed forces. The political transition, following on the transfer of power to vice-president and now president Mansour Hadi from former president Saleh, has failed.

 The Houthis are now threatening to take over the province of Marib that is rich in oil. Some analysts think that former president Saleh, who retains influence in the armed forces, allied with the Houthis in their advance outside areas in the north which they had held for a considerable time. The Houthis are a Shia minority in Yemen and are supported by Iran. It is unlikely that they could successfully rule the entire country which is majority Sunni. More likely, their aim is to be able to ensure that any Yemeni government recognizes their power and interest and is dependent upon their cooperation.

The situation is complicated by the strength of Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen. The advance of the Houthis into Sunni territory has led some Sunni tribes to ally with AQAP in a unified front to resist and fight the Houthis. AQAP not only attacks the Houthis but has been in a continual guerrilla war with the Hadi government constantly launching attacks on the military and government facilities.

 An article in Al Jazeera by Sharif Nashashibi, a prominent journalist on Arab affairs, discusses the difficult scenarios the Gulf Cooperation Council could face in Yemen. One possibility is that the Houthis could extend their control in Yemen. Taking over the oil-rich province of Marib would help achieve this. Yemen would then come more into the Iranian orbit and away from the control of he GCC and Saudi Arabia.

 Given the increasing resistance to Houthi expansion a more likely scenario is a wider civil war, with Houthis, and government forces, fighting with Sunni tribes and AQAP. The southern separatists might choose to exploit this chaos to form their own independent state in the south. Saudi Arabia shares a long border with Yemen and violence within Yemen could cross the border. The Saudis have had sporadic conflict with the Houthis in the past. Sectarian tensions between Shia and Sunnis could also increase in countries such as Bahrain where the Sunnis rule but the Shia are the majority. Some parts of eastern Saudi Arabia could also see more conflict with Shia groups.

 The increased power of AQAP also poses a problem for Saudi Arabia which has itself fought a long internal battle to keep Al Qaeda forces at bay. The Islamic State portrays itself as a force that will combat Shia expansion and this could help it recruit adherents in Yemen. The GCC countries are reportedly suspending economic aid and also military aid to Yemen. This move may make the situation worse rather than better and increase the importance of Iranian aid.

Unlike countries such as Bahrain where the Shia are not a well-armed force and have little control of the government, the Houthis in Yemen are well-armed and have government support. Military intervention by the GCC in such a situation could be a complete disaster and no doubt a huge help to AQAP. No one in Yemen is seeking outside intervention.

Nashashibi believes that the best the GCC can hope for in this situation is to try and limit spillover effects from Yemen conflicts into their member countries. In Sanaa, the capital, there were large demonstrations on Saturday demanding the removal of Houthi fighters from the capital but of President Hadi as well. They also denounced an attack on a police academy on Wednesday that killed 38 people. The protests are called the Rejection movement and took place in other cities as well. The prospect for Yemen appears to be continued instability and an uncertain future.

US drone strikes complicate struggle in Yemen

On Monday night drone strikes targeting Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula(AQAP) positions near the central town of Rada killed 20 suspected militants, according to both tribal sources and witnesses.

While the US is the only country operating drones in Yemen, the US rarely confirms strikes. The Yemeni president Hadi supports the strikes in his battle against AQAP but they are unpopular among the general population. The area around Rada is being defended by AQAP along with Sunni tribal allies against an offensive by Shiite Houthi rebels. The rebels in turn appear to have the support of elements in the armed forces.
The Houthis' main base is in the north of Yemen, near the Saudi border, but they have expanded territory under their control and taken the Red Sea Port of Hudeida last month and also occupied the capital Sanaa in September. The Saudis are concerned about these developments on their border and oppose the Houthi offensive. Now the US has intervened directly in a manner that can only help the Houthis and also alienate Sunni tribes allied with AQAP in the fight against the Shiites.
 Local sources said that armed fighters had killed 22 rebels in attacks in the area on Monday. The attacks came after a four-day deadline expired for the rebels to withdraw. The army deployed hundreds of militia to the southern port of Aden to keep it from coming under control of either the rebels or Al Qaeda. However, there is also a southern movement that could be a threat as well since they are demanding independence from the north. Militia commander Adbullatif Al Sayed said: “We came to Aden to protect security and military institutions as well as vital installations, in coordination with the leadership of the fourth military region. We will confront any armed group attempting to undermine security and stability in Aden, whether the Houthis or Al Qaeda."
 The Houthi rebels reached a deal not to enter the mostly Sunni city of Taez with a population of half a million to avoid fighting within the city. Just a few days ago competing factions including the Houthis and the Sunni Islamist Al-Islah party signed an agreement to set up a technocratic government. President Hadi and the prime minister Khaled Bahah were given the task of forming the new government. Abdel Jubari of the liberal Justice and Construction Party said: “It is a compromise agreed to overcome the question of sharing out ministerial portfolios between the various groups” The agreement on a new government does not seem to have stopped clashes between the Houthis and others. 
Earlier in Rada a suicide bomber had killed 20 Houthi fighters and three days of fighting had killed as many as 250. The intervention of the US in bombing AQAP in the area will turn the majority Sunni population in Yemen against the US and create even more problems for embattled president Hadi who is a firm ally of the US.

Protesters in Aden demand independence for South Yemen

Massive protests have broken out in the southern port city of Aden. A southern separatist movement has been demanding an independent state of South Yemen ever since it was absorbed into Yemen more than 22 years ago.

Hundreds of thousands took to the streets demanding restoration of the former independent state of South Yemen. Aden was the capital of South Yemen until 1990. The demonstration was held on the anniversary of a 1986 civil war in which the exiled former leader Abdul Ismail returned from Moscow and tried to reclaim power. In 1990 officials agreed to come under rule of the north. Ever since, there have been secessionist groups who want South Yemen to be restored. There have been constant complaints that southern development is ignored by the north. The roots of the South Yemen movement are in contrast to those of the Islamic radicals in the south. South Yemen was a secular state, Marxist oriented, and an ally of Russia.

In the spring, when there was an offensive against parts of the south controlled by Islamic militants, there was also an offensive in Aden to clear out separatists. Major General Mansour Hadi has offered to negotiate with officials from South Yemen to grant partial autonomy to the region but most at the demonstration were demanding independence.

The Obama administration is a fervent supporter of the new Yemeni government and President Hadi, the new ruler, who was formerly vice-president under former President Saleh who was also supported by the US until protests and civil unrest made it crucial that he be replaced. Hadi was elected in a contest in which he was the sole contestant. This has been help up as a model for democracy in the area! Obama even suggested that Yemen be made a model to follow in Syria after Assad is turfed out.

This was arranged in concert with the GCC and in particular Saudi Arabia. Saleh and his cronies were granted immunity for prosecution for any of their crimes and his relatives continued to wield considerable power in the new government. President Hadi has supported the US intervention in Yemen since it has been instrumental in helping him drive Islamic rebels out of the areas they had occupied last year. However, the groups continue constant attacks on the government using guerrilla tactics.

US Ambassador to Yemen, Gerald Feierstein interviewed by the official Yemeni state media insists that the entire South Yemen secessionist movement is an Iranian plot that is orchestrated by "extremists" opposed to Yemeni democracy in a bid to destabilize the Straits of Hormuz.

Of course the US has been intervening in Yemen for decades. While Iran may be interested in expanding their influence in Yemen, the more likely Iranian intervention would be to aid the Houthi rebels in the north who are Shia. Insofar as there are radical extremists in the south, they are Sunni Islamic radicals often linked to Al Qaeda not to Iran. The democracy in Yemen that Iran is supposed to oppose has been of autocratic rulers supported by the US and neighbouring Arab states.

President Hadi is charged with drawing up a constitution with elections not scheduled until 2014. A national reconciliation dialogue is also to take place to iron out differences among different groups. Islamic radicals are unlikely to take part in the dialogue and apparently most from the Southern secessionist movement will not either. Given that many key groups may not attend, the dialogue will probably be between different factions of the old guard.

Yemen represents a successful model in that the democratic demonstrators who originally tried to bring about democratic change have been mostly sidelined and the transition is led by the old guard under the guidance of foreign powers, but not Iran! Meanwhile the US is advancing its own drone democracy in Yemen to help provide security.

Yemen Defense Minister escapes unharmed after car bomb attack

Mohammed Ahmad, Yemeni Defense Minister, was not harmed by a car bomb blast outside the cabinet office in Sanaa the capital. However, 12 people were killed including several of the ministers' bodyguards.

The blast happened shortly after the announcement by Yemeni officials that the second in command of AQAM (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) had been killed. Saeed al-Shihri was killed along with at least five other militants. A Yemeni news report said:

"The Saudi terrorist Saeed al-Shihri, the second man in al-Qaeda, was killed in a quality operation by the armed forces in Hadramawt,"

Actually the quality operation no doubt involved missile strikes courtesy of the U.S. probably by drones according to senior Yemeni military officials' The U.S. refuses to report on these strikes for the most part although they have made exceptions for high profile targets such as Anwar Al-Awlaki.

Islamic militants have been driven from most of the areas they occupied from the summer of 2011 until driven out a few months ago by Yemeni forces with U.S. supervision and help. However, the militants are fighting back with constant attacks on the Yemeni military and allies of the government. The latest blast is just one of a series.

At least seven bodyguards and five civilians were killed and 14 other people were wounded by this latest attack. Police sealed off the area as ambulances rushed to the blast scene. There are several government departments as well as the security headquarters in the area. The defense minister is leading the war against Al Qaeda in Yemen. The chief editor of theYemen Post said:

"There are certain sides who could be behind this attack.

One is al-Qaeda, because the defence minister is responsible for the war against al-Qaeda. Secondly, those who are against President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi , because [Ahmad] is his closest aide."

At the same time as the car bomb explosion there were two other explosions in the capital but there is no word yet if any casualties resulted from them.

This is not the first attack targeting the defense minister. In May AQAP claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Sanaa that killed almost 100 soldiers and said the target was Ahmad and that the attack was in retaliation for army attacks in AQAP controlled territory.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/332611#ixzz26BEXDnDe

Saudi Arabia donates $2.2 billion in oil products to help Yemen

At a donor's conference in Riyadh the Saudi Arabian minister for external affairs announced a gift of oil and oil products to Yemen worth $2.2 billion to meet domestic demand in the country. The Saudi deputy minister said the donation was necessary to keep Yemen running. Yemen has oil and gas resources of its own but much production has beenj shut down because of the security situation.

Unknown attackers just recently blew up a gas pipeline that fed liquefied natural gas to an export terminal. The pipeline had been repaired just a few days ago after previous sabotage had shut it down in August. A bomb was planted underneath the pipeline and exploded.

Saudi Arabia has called for aid to help Yemen which is in dire economic straits. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council with the support of the U.S. brokered a deal that saw former president Saleh step down. His vice-president Hadi then took power and eventually was elected president unopposed. Hadi has the support of the Saudis, GCC, and the U.S. The U.S. has been active in actions against Islamic militants often linked to Al Qaeda in Yemen. However the economy is in ruins and there is a humanitarian disaster as many people have fled from areas of conflict.

Saudi Arabia asked for up to $11 billion in aid to support the country in its planned transition to democracy. The meeting is at the level of experts and ambassadors. In May Saudi Arabia pledged $3..25 billion in aid and other donors pledged a sum total of $4 billion. Yemen's Planning and Internaitonal Cooperation MInister said that Yemen requires $11 billion in aid. Mohamed al-Saadi said:“Our needs are $14 billion. The Yemeni government can cover some part, but there remains a gap of $11 billion.”

Wael Zakout World Bank manager for Yemen said:“We hope to raise U.S. $6 billion during the donor meeting to cover the transition period lasting until the middle of 2014..We will hold another donor conference after 2014 to raise the rest of the needed funds." The donors meeting will discuss reconstruction, humanitarian needs, as well as security.

Yemen faces separatist movements in both the north and south as well as conflict with Al Qaeda-linked Islamic radicals. There are plans for political dialogue and elections. There will be a meeting in New York of the Friends of Yemen next month. One can judge who is helping run Yemen by the locations of donor conferences! For more seethis article. I

U.S drone attack kills 8 in Yemen

The U.S. is stepping up drone and missile strikes in Yemen. Eight suspected militants were killed on Friday in Hadramut province.

Yemeni official pronouncements claim the 8 killed were members of Al Qaeda. Naturally no mention is made of other victims if any and there is often no independent verification. The strike was on a vehicle in a remote area of the eastern province of Hadramut.

The official defense ministry site claims that the men were heavily armed and were carrying machine guns and explosives. A local anonymous official said that the men were thought to have been on the way to carry out an attack and added that it was a drone strike. The official site version does not mention that.

Probably this was a signature strike. Based upon patterns of behavior and the circumstances the drone operators decided that these were militants. This is a broadening of targets since earlier strikes were restricted to cases where those targeted were known.

The U.S. has small groups of Special Forces in Yemen advising Yemeni security forces and also offers missile and drone strikes against suspected militants. The U.S. helped drive militant forces out of areas they had occupied a year ago in August. The militants are now in remote mountainous areas or in hiding but they continually strike back. However the U.S. is increasing drone attacks as well. Since last Tuesday six other suspected militants have been killed probably by drone strikes. In some cases missiles are fired from ships offshore. A Yemeni intelligence officer was shot dead by a gunman on a motorbike on Thursday in the capital.

United States Central Intelligence Agency

Map of Yemen

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Yemeni's generally react negatively to the drone attacks and the attacks are increasing anti-American feelings. However, some local sheikhs are loyal to the new Hadi government after having opposed the former Saleh regime. These sheikhs keep quiet about the strikes. Some others have helped the regime drive out Islamists and have become targets of radicals themselves.

However, a sheikh from an area south-east of the capital that is an Al Qaeda haven said:

“People are afraid to go to weddings because, whenever large groups of men gather, they are afraid a drone will hit them,”

The sheikh says about one drone a week flies over his home. He and his friends regularly complain about them when they get together. A friend of the sheikh, smuggler, said:

“Our people ask how these foreign planes have a right to come here and kill them, even if some of the people they kill are al-Qaeda.. The other thing is that they think the drones are taking photos of them and spying on them. Because of this, our people have finished with America. "

The new Yemeni president, Mansour Hadi, supported by the U.S. who ran and won unopposed has been very cooperative with the U.S. He was vice-president under Saleh but has managed to bring into his government some who opposed Saleh. The U.S. has stepped up involvement in Yemen since Hadi has been president. Unofficial sources count at least 28 aerial attacks by the U.S. this year alone. Some drones come from Djibouti across the Red Sea where the U.S. maintains a base. Other aerial attacks may be cruise missiles launched from U.S. warships in the area.

Militant attacks are actually increasing. Last month a suicide bomber killed 40 people in Jaar a city recently held by the militants. A tribal leader opposed to Al Qaeda was attending the funeral. The move is perhaps meant to show that there is no security for those supporting the government.

The Yemeni government also faces secessionist forces in both the north and south of the country. Use of U.S. firepower to put down Islamic militants may simply exacerbate conflict rather than pacifying the many opposition forces in Yemen. The long and continuing conflict has ruined the economy and displaced many people creating a continuing humanitarian crisis that is hardly solved by drone attacks.

Yemen tries to restructure army

    Yemen's president Hadi has issued decrees that transfer the command of some Republican Guard units to a newly formed force that will be under his own command.  Most of the elite Republican Guards are under the command of  Brigadier General Ahmed Saleh a son of  ex-president Saleh. Saleh's family retains considerable power within the government and armed forces. Hadi was himself a Saleh loyalist in the past having been vice-president under Saleh. However, now he is trying to neutralize factions within the army. Hadi ran unopposed for president after Saleh stepped down from the presidency with immunity from trial for his crimes. The deal was brokered by the GCC with the support of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
    At the same time Hadi has issued decrees that place some of rival General Al Mohsen al-Ahmar units into the presidential force or under new regional commanders. Rival Saleh and Ahmar army factions have actually had clashes. Ahmar said he welcomed the decision and said that the move could restore unity in the forces. That remains to be seen! Some earlier decrees have not been carried out or were carried out only after great pressure was exerted. In April however Hadi did remove about 20 commanders including several  Saleh relatives. Hadi seems to be trying to remove commanders from both factions.
   In the streets of Sanaa the capital there is a common saying that those who rule them in the past rule them now. There are reports that Hadi the president has still been unable to enter the presidential palace since the area around it is guarded by Republican Guards loyal to Saleh and his relatives. No wonder Hadi is forming a new presidential force. A recent offensive has ousted Islamic militants who had ruled in many areas since last August. However tribal chiefs who helped Yemeni forces under U.S. guidance in the offensive will now be off to Sanaa to collect payment for their loyalty. If the central government does not come up with funds and also help rebuild cities such as Jaar and Zinjibar there will be more trouble. There will no doubt be trouble anyway as Islamic militants are resorting to guerrilla warfare and terrorist actions in the areas in which they had ruled. Much more needs to be done for the vaunted transition to democracy. First a transition to some stability and security is needed. For more see this article.

U.S. to provide 52 million more in aid to Yemen

The aid is for areas that have been badly affected by Yemen's war on al-Qaida. That war is supported by the U.S. with even U.S. special forces on the ground helping to direct activity.

Yemen is suffering a humanitarian disaster with people fleeing many areas of conflict and the economy in ruins. There is no guarantee that all the aid will filter through to those who most need it as the government is of the old guard many of whom are corrupt. The president Hadi for example was vice-president under Saleh and some of Saleh's relatives are still in positions of power. But the Saleh clan no doubt are not the only corrupt politicians in Yemen.

The new aid is to be directed at the provinces of Lahj, Aden and Abyan. This new aid bring total aid to Yemen to 170 million this year. For more see this article.

Top commander in South Yemen assassinated by suicide bomber

On his way to work on Monday (July 18) Maj. Gen. Sali Ali Qatn was killed when a suicide bomber detonated himself in front of his vehicle. As well as the general his driver and a passenger were also killed.

Both Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) and Ansar al-Sharia another militant group are active in southern Yemen and until a recent offensive by the Yemen military with the guidance of U.S special forces had occupied and run several cities.

While there have been reports of clashes and territory has certainly been retaken details of the campaign remain unclear. In some cases locals report that militants just left without a fight. There are reports too that in some areas locals were recruited to help oust the radicals.

General Qatn was one of new president Hadi's first key military appointments. Qatn led the offensive against militants to regain territory. However, there were heavy casualties in some clashes including a raid on a military post east of Aden that killed about 100 soldiers. The central government still has a tenuous hold over the south of the country which at one time was independent. In Aden there are areas where soldiers or police dare not enter for fear of being attacked. In the area where the general was killed there are reports of the black flag of Al Qaeda being flown. For more see this article.

UN chief sees Yemen as model to achieve peace in other areas of Middle East

Yemen's new government is praised by the UN chief Ban Ki-Moon and seen as a model to achieve peace in other areas of the middle east. The new president was the only candidate in the recent presidential election. Now the UN says that the nation's transition to democracy is largely on track.

The new president Major General Mansour Hadi was originally vice-president under former president Saleh. After protracted protests during which many protesters were killed some opposition politicians and Saleh loyalists came to a deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council which gave Saleh and his relatives immunity for any prosecution for crimes committed during the protests. Pro Democracy activists opposed the deal strenuously but they do not count.

Power was transferred to then vice-president Hadi. Later he would become president in an uncontested race and supported by the U.S. and neighboring states. There has been a transition to the old guard. Meanwhile democratic reforms take a back seat to the war on terror and battle against militants.

The special UN envoy to Yemen Jamaal Omar also praised the government but worried about "serious security concerns". He urged all factions to support Hadi in the name of stability. As well as pro-democracy groups who want Saleh and his cronies to face justice, there are two separatist movements one in the north and one in the south, and a growing Islamic insurgency that had seized large swaths of territory. A fine model for peace and democracy in the Middle East. For more see this article.

Leon Panetta: U.S. can deal with spreading militancy in Yemen without boots on the ground.

Everything the U.S. is involved in within Yemen is always described as related to Al Qaeda. While some conflict involves other militant groups they are described as Al Qaeda linked or Al Qaeda affiliated as soon as they come into conflict with the Hadi government. As soon as they are attacked by U.S. drones they do become very much of the same disposition as Al Qaeda even though before their concern was local. The result is that Al Qaeda is said to be spreading throughout Yemen. In effect the U.S. by its own actions contributes to this spread of Islamic militancy in Yemen.

Leon Panetta says that Al Qaeda's spreading presence in Yemen can be handled by targeted operations rather than boots on the ground. Of course Panetta does not add that there are already special forces on the ground in Yemen. In many cases they are active in directing Yemeni forces and providing information for drone attacks. In one event a group were attacked and at least one wounded.

Panetta defended the use of drones as the most precise weapons the U.S. has in the campaign against Al Qaeda. Yet we know that some attacks have been not precise at all. The earliest attack killed almost all women and children in a remote mountain village.At that period the U.S. had the Yemeni government claim responsibility even though it was later proved to be by the Americans. Another attack killed a tribal elder who was traveling to negotiate with a militant. Of course Panetta says nothing of this but says:“Our whole effort there is aimed at going after those terrorists who threaten to attack our country,” He added:“We’ve been successful. We’ve gone after a number of key targets there. We’ll continue to do that.” The U.S. has also been successful in helping spread Islamic militancy and continued drone strikes will further that collateral effect as well.

While the Yemeni armed forces guided by the U.S. have recaptured some ground there are heavy casualties on both sides and a suicide bomber in revenge killed about a hundred Yemeni troops in Sanaa. The new U.S. supported president (vice-president under Saleh) has sworn to defeat Al Qaeda at his swearing in ceremony. This ensures that he will have the help of the US. against any rebellion. Any opposition will be termed Al Qaeda or Al Qaeda linked. Soon the U.S. will not be involved in counter terrorism but counter insurgency. More drones and other weapons will be required and more boots on the ground who will not be described as such since they will be special forces. For more see this article.

Yemen: Militants kill 32 troops in army base attack

Although the Yemeni military is claiming that it is winning the battle against militants who have occupied territory in Southern Yemen the actual situation seems more complex. The military does seem to have regained some territory including a strategic town of Lawdar.

However other areas are still under control of militants of Ansar al-Sharia and AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula). The press and official pronouncements tend to link groups together perhaps to convince the U.S. that these are all Al Qaeda militants or Al Qaeda linked. It works.

The U.S. has been involved in several air strikes, including one that is said to have killed some militant leaders. Often strikes that are said to be by the government are no doubt by the U.S. Wikileaks cables revealed that at least the former government took credit for U.S. attacks so as to downplay U.S. involvement. Probably the present government is doing the same. There are U.S. Special Forces units operating in Yemen as well.

The struggle against militants has been costly as the most recent attack killed at least 32 soldiers. Some time ago the rebels raided a base outside of Zinjibar killing 185 soldiers and captured many others. Those captured were later released. See this article. The U.S. is strongly backing President Hadi as he has made a strong commitment to defeating Islamic. However Hadi faces opposition from within his government and two separatist movements as well as the Islamic militants who oppose his government. For more see this article.

Patrons of Sharia militants release 73 captured Yemeni soldiers

A provincial official said:"Al-Qaeda has released 73 soldiers they seized in the south in early March," The official was speaking in the city of Jaar which is held by the militant group Ansar Al-Sharia (Partisans of Sharia). The group is often said to be Al Qaeda linked or by this official simply Al Qaeda. This blurring of distinctions between groups is probably a deliberate tactic of Yemeni officials since the U.S. is bound to help them as long as they are fighting Al Qaeda.

The official claimed that two busloads of soldiers were driven from Jaar to Aden the main port city in the south. The official said that religious and tribal mediators had secured their release. There were rumors that they were to be executed. There is no account of what the militants were given in exchange. Perhaps there are promises that local tribes will not take part in government attempts to drive out the militants from areas they occupy.On March 4 the militants had successfully attacked an army base near Zinjibar killing 185 soldiers and capturing the 73 who are now released.

The president of Yemen Hadi recently held talks with the FBI director Robert Mueller. No doubt there will be renewed attempts to dislodge militants from areas they occupy. This will stir up more unrest in the south that already has a separatist movement as well as militant groups. For more see this article.

FBI director Mueller visits Yemen

In a sign that the U.S. is becoming more deeply involved in the Yemen civil strife FBI director Robert Mueller visited the capital yesterday. The government took the opportunity to announce that an air strike had killed an important Al Qaeda leader who was involved in an attack on a French oil tanker. No doubt this was a U.S. drone strike but as usual Yemen does not admit such strikes. However U.S. sources say that the strike was carried out by a CIA operated drone.

During a meeting with the new president who was elected recently in a one person race Mueller pledged support for Yemen "with full force" . The original protesters for democracy have been unable to hold the former president Saleh or anyone else responsible for the deaths during the democracy protests. All were given immunity under the GCC brokered deal for the former president to step down.

A Yemen embassy spokesman in Washington said. "President Hadi emphasized that he is strongly committed to combating extremism and working with the U.S. to counter the mutual threat of terrorism." For more see this article.. The Yemeni armed forces along with some local tribes people opposed to a Qaeda or perhaps funded by the government have been trying to take back territory occupied by militants. The U.S. could very well be used by the Yemeni regime to fight forces opposed to the regime who are separatists rather than militants. Branding any group as militants is a sure fire way to gain U.S. support for eliminating them.

Yemen: President faces internal division between pro and anti Saleh officials

Nasser Arrabyee is a Yemeni journalist based in Sanaa. He has a blog here and an article on the new president Abdu Mansour Hadi. He discusses some of the inner conflicts within the new administration.

Under a deal brokered by the GCC the former president yielded power to his vice president Hadi who eventually was elected president in a one horse race! This was applauded as a model transition to democracy by some in the West!

Opposition forces were given positions in the transitional government and just the other day Hadi relieved two Saleh relatives of their positions. Neither of the two have gone quietly.

One surrounded and closed down the airport at Sanaa for a day or so. Now it seems that an important opposition general is to be promoted according to Arrabyee. General Ali Muhsen who had earlier defected from the Saleh regime apparently will become deputy to the supreme commander of the armed forces.

The fired commander of the air force Mohammed Al Ahmar a half brother of Saleh set conditions for turning over the main base to the government. One of the conditions is that the former defected general Ali Muhsen be fired before him or simultaneously with his firing.

The general Ali Muhsen was the second most powerful person in Yemen before his defection according to Arrabyee. He and a tribal leader are doing their best to ease out their former close ally Saleh.

Arrabyee calls the tribal leader Hamid Al Ahmar a billionaire who orchestrated the anti-Saleh uprising. Surely part of that rising was a more pro-democracy movement that was part of the Arab Spring but was eventually sidelined by the sort of elite intrigues described by Arrabyee.

The Ahmar group is trying to have Hadi fire Ahmed Sali who is the son of Saleh and head of the elite Republican Guards. So far this has not happened. If it does there could be even more internal conflict.

Hadi is also being pressed to fire General Muhsen but as with Saleh's relatives he would not accept being fired unless Ahmed Sali head of the Republican guards is fired first. With all of this conflict perhaps some group will march on the presidential palace again as when Saleh was gravely wounded some time ago.

The U.S. and Saudi backed deal did not include firing Saleh relatives but General Muhsen and no doubt others want this along with his Islamist allies. The U.S. wants Muhsen fired for his links historically with militant Islamist groups. Many of his troops have Islamist leanings. This all sounds as if there is likely to be ongoing internal strife that could easily result in violence. For much more see this article.

Yemen: Government forces attack militants with U.S. help

Yemeni government forces are trying to wrest parts of southern Yemen from Al Qaeda and other Islamic militants who have occupied considerable swaths of territory while the country was in turmoil.

President Hadi the former protege and vice-president under Saleh has fired some Saleh loyalist from positions of power but a son of Saleh continues to run the elite Republican Guards.

Two who were fired refused to give up their positions and one general closed down the airport in the capital by surrounding it with loyal troops. The airport is open again now. See this article.



A mainly covert U.S. role in Yemen relies to a considerable extent on drones which are flown from a base in nearby Djibouti on the horn of Africa. There is also a secret base thought to be in Saudi Arabia.However, there are also special forces on the ground.

Yemeni officials also reported that the capital of Abyan province, Zinjibar was hit by missile fire from the Gulf of Aden. The Yemeni government does not have the capability to mount such an attack so no doubt it was mounted from U.S. warships. Zinjibar is occupied by the militant group Ansar al Sharia.

Hadi has so far thrown his lot in with the U.S. in making a priority attacks upon Al Qaeda and other militant groups such as Ansar al Sharia. Saleh alternated attacks with deals with the militants.

Since last May there have been 26 reported U.S,. drone strikes in Yemen. So far this year there have been a dozen already. However militants are stepping up attacks too often taking the battle to the military by attacking bases. The military has already suffered 250 killed this year and lost several bases to militants.

AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and Ansar al Sharia have bet wen them captured a number of towns in southern provinces. They have often repelled attempts by government forces to retake the towns.

Ansar al-Sharia has been especially active wiping out some 150 government troops in an attack west of Zinjibar. Often weapons caches have been captured as well. In the captured towns the group imposes its own strict Sharia law.

The south of Yemen was long a separate state. There is a strong separatist movement as well as Islamic radicals active in the south. Many inhabitants feel abandoned by the central government and believe they get little or nothing from the union. For more see this article.

Yemen: Troops loyal to ousted general surround airport in the capital.

Troops loyal to General al-Ahmar threatened to fire on incoming and outgoing planes. The General was fired by the government in a purge of some Saleh loyalists. Saleh was the former president who gave up power in a deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council.

General al-Ahmar has refused to step down. The airport is surrounded by troops loyal to the general. A chief of the Hamdan tribe who are loyal to Saleh is said to be leading the group.

In a message to his troops the general said the presidential decrees would not be implemented unless the defense minister and the chief of staff left their posts. One wonders who is firing who!

These moves come as there are daily protests demanding that Saleh relatives resign from their positions. General al-Ahmar is a half-brother of Saleh. Of course president Hadi himself was Saleh's vice-president before running unchallenged for president!

The editor of a Yemeni newspaper claimed that Hadi had no other choice but to make the dismissals. He said:“He became president under one condition: he would be able to start a national dialogue a week after he takes power,” “It's been a month and a half and the opposition factions have refused to enter any dialogue with President Hadi unless military reforms take place immediately.” Hadi dismissed another Saleh relative, a nephew, who was head of the presidential guard. No doubt he will feel safer now! However the nephew also refused to quit even though he was offered another position in the military.

The head of the GCC backed Hadi in his moves. The GCC brokered the deal that led to Saleh's resignation. However Saleh still retains a great deal of influence in the new government. The GCC and the U.S. may find themselves enmeshed in tribal rivalries they may not be able to control. Restructuring of the army was one condition of the GCC deal.

If Hadi moves too far he risks losing power entirely. Saleh's son Ahmed still heads the elite forces of the Republican Guard and a nephew is head of central security forces. While Hadi may be favored by the U.S. and GCC he risks plunging Yemen into a civil war if he moves against his own former comrades. In a February speech Hadi said he would make"radical reforms" in the army. He also vowed to fight Al-Qaeda. The U.S. has been happy to help Hadi with the latter task. For more see this article

Yemen: Al Qaeda surveillance reports U.S. troops in Aden

An Al Qaeda group claimed that it had attacked a U.S. intelligence officer after their surveillance showed increasing numbers of U.S. troops in the city of Aden. The new leader Prime Minister Hadi a vice-president under Saleh has vowed to continue the fight against Al Qaeda and other militant groups. He is supported by the U.S. even though he was the sole candidate for president and Saleh supporters and relatives still are the major group running the government.
The statement about the attack came from an AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) website. The Pentagon has confirmed the attack but claims no one was killed. The website said of the intelligence officer:"He was targeted after increasing U.S. activity in Yemen in the light of new political circumstances, and the bringing of a large number of U.S. soldiers to Aden in particular," The site also urged a jihad against the Crusader enemy and to fight the American occupiers of Yemen.
A related militant group Ansar al-Sharia has claimed responsibility for a number of attacks that have killed so far at least 110 Yemeni soldiers in the south of Yemen.
The campaign of assassinations by U.S. drone strikes has been followed by increased militant activity involving taking over the entire province of Abyan at one point. There is also an active separatist movement in the south of the country. At one time the south was a separate country. For more see this article.