US airstrikes in Sirte appear ended for now

(November 7) Fox News reports that several U.S. officials claim that after three months of strikes on Islamic State positions in Sirte designed to help the offensive by Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) the operation has ended.

Operation Odyssey Lightning began on August 1. When originally announced the operation was only to last for a few weeks. It has been extended every thirty days since then through September and October but there appears to be no extension into November. The Islamic State (IS) is now confined to a small area of Sirte along the Mediterranean and there are very few IS fighters left. However, they continue a fierce resistance. U.S. officials told Fox News that they were consulting with the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) and did not rule out further strikes in the future. One senior defense official said that there were fewer targets available now without the risk of civilian casualties.

Since the operation began Aug. 1, 367 airstrikes have been carried out. A recent tweet shows a graph of the strikes: "Graphs showing 3 months of Odyssey Lightning OP in #Sirte. 737 ISIS fighters, 38 SVBIED, 36 supply vehicles / positions, targeted since Aug1" No airstrikes have taken place since the end of August.

Apparently new orders from U.S. Africa Command on November 1 are to "end offensive and self-defense strikes" against the IS in Sirte. However, a U.S. official claimed that President Obama can authorize additional strikes going forward on targets of interest. The Sirte Operation has been carried out unilaterally but at the request of the GNA. The U.S. has carried out two other separate airstrikes in Libya since 2015.

While the USS Wasp, an amphibious assault ship, conducted operations involving Harrier Jets and Cobra attack helicopters a majority of the strikes were actually by drones from bases in the region. The Wasp was replaced by the USS San Antonio recently which cannot launch Harrier jets. The U.S. also has a few special forces on the ground helping out in the offensive against Sirte along with some from the U.K.

Meanwhile, ground operations by BAM continue against the IS remnants now confined to just one small district. As they advance they have been able to free some civilians from the IS. On Sunday BAM forces freed 14 civilians from the small Ghiza Bahriya area where IS continues to resist. The forces are advancing slowly and cautiously in an effort to limit civilian casualties. Several groups of civilians have been able to escape or been rescued lately. Some are migrant women and children kidnapped by the IS as they tried to make their way to Europe. Rida Issa, a spokesperson for the BAM forces, mostly from the city of Misrata, said there was no advance on Sunday but on Saturday there were small gains after heavy tank and artillery fire against IS positions.

On Saturday the Misrata Central Hospital reported two BAM fighters were killed and 22 more wounded in clashes with IS fighters. Only ten of those injured needed to stay in the hospital.

UPDATE: According to an article in the Military TImes the operation has been extended. There has been no official announcement and no news as to how long and when extension was authorized. Up until now there have been no further attacks.

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U.S. ups air attacks on the Islamic State in Sirte Libya

Although the final push to defeat the Islamic State (IS) in Sirte began some time ago and their imminent defeat has been announced a number of times, a few IS fighters still remain surrounded in the city in an increasingly smaller area.

In order to soften up IS positions before each advance of the Al Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) forces, the U.S. has targeted snipers and IS positions as part of its Operation Odyssey Lightning that began back on the beginning of August. Just in the last four days, the U.S. has carried out 51 airstrikes. Africa Command (AFRICOM) said that this was some of the heaviest bombing since the operation began. AFRICOM said that in all about 155 targets were hit, mostly enemy fighting positions.

The BAM forces are mostly brigades from the city of Misrata and are loyal to the UN-backed Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). The U.S. airstrikes are in support of the Sirte offensive. There are also some special forces from the U.K. and the U.S. who are helping out on the ground. The attacks are launched from the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp. Since the U.S. operation began it has carried out 261 airstrikes. The Stars and Stripes suggests that there are perhaps fewer than 200 IS fighters left in Sirte.

There were gains against IS on Friday when the group was split into two and on the weekend. On Tuesday BAM forces are reported to have begun advancing again. Mohamed Abdulla a pro-government fighter claimed that BAM forces are making progress every day but needed better care for their wounded. BAM forces have faced fierce opposition from snipers, suicide vehicle attacks, and booby traps. The cost to BAM forces has been heavy. Some sources put the tally at 560 BAM fighters killed plus more than 2,750 injured so far.

Spokesperson for BAM, Muhammad Al-Ghusri said on Wednesday: “The remaining IS militants are not positioned in a combat mode, they are rather cornered, lost and perplexed in a very small area in the city. A coordinated work between our air force and ground troops has paid off and all IS militants are waiting for their death at any minute as they lie trapped in a very small area in Sirte – an area that is encircled by our forces. IS radicals have now two options; surrender or die.”Al-Ghusri claimed that all possible exits have been closed off and there is no way the remaining fighters can escape.

U.S. extends bombing missions in LIbya for another 30 days

Since August 1st, the United States has been carrying out Operation Odyssey Lightning a bombing mission in Libya in support of the offensive against the Islamic State (IS) in Sirte by the forces of the Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM).

BAM forces are mainly from Misrata and are loyal to the UN-backed Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). The operation has been successful in helping the BAM forces defeat the remnants of the IS who remain in Sirte. Very little of Sirte is left to be cleared and the battle should be over within days. In spite of this, President Obama has extended the mission for another entire month, two defense officials told Fox News.

The US has launched more than one hundred missions against the Islamic State in Sirte since the operation began. An AFRICOM spokesperson, Lt. Cmdr. Anthony Falvo, said: "U.S. precision airstrikes have enabled GNA-aligned forces to advance and take key areas of the city from the grasp of the Islamic State." On Monday alone the US Africa Command carried out five strikes against IS positions in Sirte. A recent tweet gives a more updated tally of the strikes: "#Libya : Harrier jets have conducted 124 missions & the Cobra attack helicopters have flown 31 missions in #Sirte."

Obama's decision will keep two U.S. warships off the coast of Libya. One, the USS Wasp, is a large amphibious assault ship said to be loaded with more than 1,000 Marines as well as Harrier jets and Cobra attack helicopters. An escort ship, the destroyer USS Carney is a guided missile destroyer. The destroyer is said to be close enough to Libya to be seen from the shore.

One defense official said he expected U.S. airstrikes to end soon as BAM forces now had control of 90 percent of Sirte. Neither the White House nor the Pentagon have yet officially announced the extension of the mission. It is not clear what the U.S. could bomb after Sirte has been cleared of IS fighters. However, IS units may appear inother areas of Libya. The BAM forces have been helped by small numbers of special forces on the ground from the U.K. and the U.S. Why 1,000 marines remain stationed off shore is not explained. AFRICOM would not speculate as to how long the campaign might continue.

The bombing was initiated at the request of the UN-backed Government of National Accord. Last week, PM of the GNA, Faiez Serraj, went to AFRICOM headquarters in Stuttgart and had talks with Gen. Thomas Waldhauser on counter-terrorism operations. He expressed a "desire for U.S. assistance with future enhanced military capabilities and defense capacity building."

Why did the US decide to provide air support for Libyan offensive against ISIS in Sirte?

On August 1st, the Obama administration announced that Operation Odyssey Lightning had begun, a series of air strikes against the remnants of the Islamic State, or Daesh, surrounded in a confined area of their former stronghold Sirte.

The strikes were coordinated with a ground assault by the Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) forces loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). The U.S. has carried out targeted air strikes in the past and also has a few special forces working with BAM, but also in Benghazi with the rival government and forces led by General Khalifa Haftar — who has so far rejected the GNA and refused to join its armed forces under the command of the GNA Presidential Council (PC).

The official reasoning for the strikes is given in a government release of a statement by Pentagon Press Secretary, Peter Cook. The aim was to help the BAM forces to defeat the IS in Sirte. The strikes were recommended by Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Chairman Dunford. Cook claims that the strikes were consistent with US policy of working with capable and motivated local forces against the IS. The statement notes that BAM forces have already made significant advances against the IS and the air strikes will enable BAM forces to "make a decisive strategic advance". The statement concludes:The U.S. stands with the international community in supporting the GNA as it strives to restore stability and security to Libya. These actions and those we have taken previously will help deny ISIL a safe haven in Libya from which it could attack the United States and our allies.

Given that the BAM forces have the IS forces surrounded and would in time defeat them without help, the timing of the bombings is a bit strange. Why did the US not help BAM from the first when it could have been very helpful to the GNA and have meant less casualties? The GNA no doubt was concerned that asking the US at that time could have resulted in a backlash over overt foreign interference. The GNA is already often criticized at being a creation of, and beholden to foreign interests. However, recently the French have been discovered as supporting the rival House of Representatives (HoR) government and its forces under General Haftar. Three French agents were killed when a helicopter crashed or was shot down while on a reconnaissance mission for Haftar. The GNA may have wanted to show that it too can gain international support.

The raids were condemned by the HoR and Haftar even though they are proponents of the war on terror. Haftar had announced that he was marching to liberate Sirte but took no part in the offensive. The Grand Mufti has joined his opponent Haftar in also condemning the attacks as unacceptable interference in Libyan affairs. Areligious body also condemned the attacks, as reported by the Libyan Observer:The country’s top religious body has totally refused the call for foreign intervention. The Fatwa House said in a statement on Tuesday that the request of the Presidential Council aims to steal the efforts of the revolutionaries and their sacrifices in Sirte front lines.

“This request is an insult to the large numbers of martyrs in Sirte and an attempt to save Haftar in Benghazi on the pretext of fighting terrorism,” the statement reads, calling on all concerned parties to bear their responsibilities and reject this intervention.The BAM forces themselves approved the attacks but wished they had begun sooner. The BAM forces have been virtually stalled for some time and have faced heavy losses from the determined resistance of the few remaining IS fighters. They face snipers, IED's and suicide attacks. It is not surprising that they should welcome help from whatever quarters.

An article in the Atlantic, by Dominic Tierney, editor of Atlantic and Associate Professor of Political Science at Swarthmore College, notes that the US attacks represent a considerable escalation of US involvement in the conflict and in particular it involves publicly choosing to support one side, the GNA, militarily. However, the article argues that the bombing operation is very much evidence of the short-term thinking and lack of long term plans, which characterized the earlier intervention which overthrew Gadaffi.

Tierney remarks that Obama seeks to use force to degrade the IS, but avoids getting into wars using large numbers of boots on the ground that can result in casualties that cause political problems. The articlenotes:The current air campaign in Libya exhibits all the hallmarks of Obama’s way of war: the careful and calibrated use of force, the reliance on air power rather than ground troops, the coordination with local allies — in this case, the GNA, which requested the anti-ISIS strikes.

While the policy may be successful, in the short term there is no clear plan for an endgame. Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said about US policy in the Middle East that the US was basically playing out its tactics day by day. U.S. Marine Lt. General Thomas Waldhauser, when asked about US policy in Libya said: “I am not aware of any overall grand strategy at this point.”

Perhaps, as the article suggests Obama does not want to plan too far ahead in Libya as he could be drawn into more involvement than he wants, perhaps even into "nation building". Obama also must realize that he soon will not be president and may leave it to the next president to make plans for the future. Yet without a long term plan there is not likely to be a durable success in Libya. The bombing campaign is for only 30 days. The GNA still lacks power within the country and has been unable to create a truly national unified government including the HoR and General Haftar. While all of this may be true, the US may be reluctant to commit itself to a much greater degree of intervention since it is uncertain of what the results would be. Perhaps, the US policy makes sense and is based upon a realization that even great powers may not be able to control events in the manner they wish with long term plans.

In a world where it is not easy to control events it may make sense to hedge ones bets and be cautious in any intervention. Tierney writes:France, Britain, Germany, Spain, and Italy have all backed the GNA as the recognized government in Libya. But Western governments seem to be hedging their bets. In July, three French special operations troops died in a helicopter accident near Benghazi, after working on an intelligence mission alongside House of Representatives forces. The international community must send a consistent message about which Libyan groups are considered legitimate.The members of the international community do not have all the same aims. Russia, Egypt, the UAE and likely France support Haftar and the HoR while all also express support for the GNA. Even the UK and US have special forces in Benghazi supporting the HoR and Haftar.

Tierney is certainly correct that the Obama move may set a precedent to supporting the GNA in the future and defeating the IS does not "finish the job" but perhaps it is wrong to think in the first place that there is such a thing a finishing the job. It implies at type of imperialist thinking that is itself part of the problem that the U.S. faces.

Russian reaction to the bombing has been negative, as it shows clear military support for the GNA while Russia supports Haftar and the HoR and gives only lip-service to the GNA. A Russian interviewwith Yuri Zinin of the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations points out the bombing was not authorized by the UN. Zinin suggests that Obama wants to improve his image at the end of his presidency. and notes that the request for the bombing came from the GNA. However, the GNA is very weak and has been unsuccessful so far at creating a unified and stable government. In response to the question 'what can the U.S. do in Lbya?' Zinin replies:"I do not know the answer to this question. When Sarraj said that he had asked the Americans for help, all others stood in opposition to him. They could not understand how it was at all possible to ask the Americans to bomb Libya at the time when the country is disintegrated and the government is illegitimate. This is total chaos. There is no centralized power, and the reconciliation process hardly brings any results."This is simply wrong on several accounts. It is the type of answer you would expect from a Haftar supporter. All others did not stand in opposition to Serraj when he asked the US for help. The GNA Presidency Council support him and the State Council as well. So do the BAM forces as well as many others. The GNA is called illegitimate but is recognized by the UN and most countries as the sole legitimate government of Libya.