Easterm commander Haftar gains ground in Libya with help of Egypt

(June 2) According to a report in Al Jazeera, forces loyal to eastern commander Marshal Khalifa Haftar launched attacks almost simultaneously against forces associated with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

The attacks happened just hours after unidentified jets bombed GNA-held areas. Haftar does not recognize the GNA government. His forces, the Libyan National Army(LNA) are associated with the rival House of Representatives(HoR) government. The Bunyan al-Marsous(BAM) forces who who were involved in the clashes earlier captured Sirte from the Islamic State. BAM forces, who support the GNA, said they were attacked on Friday both by Haftar and by Islamic State(IS) forces in the central district of Al Jufra which is south of Sirte. While IS has no longer control over major centers they still exist in a number of areas in Libya. Al Jazeera's reporter Mahmoud Abdelwahed said from Tripoli the capital: "Fresh fighting has erupted between forces loyal to renegade commander Khalifa Haftar and forces loyal to the UN-backed GNA, helped by the Benghazi Defence Brigades in the area of al-Jufra in the central desert of Libya." He said warplanes, believed to be Egyptian, hit 14 locations in Jufra overnight including several residential areas and the Jufra air base used by UN-backed GNA forces. Abdelwahed said the raids caused heavy material damage but there were no reports of casualties. The Jufra area is about 400km to the south of Sirte.

Egyptian president Abdel el-Sisi said on Friday that he had directed strikes against what he called "terrorist camps". On television he said that states that sponsored terrorism would be punished. Apparently this includes the UN-sponsored GNA. Do not expect that the GNA or the UN will do anything other than perhaps let fly some moral put downs and requests that Haftar stop all his successful military endeavours. El-Sisi said: "Egypt will never hesitate to strike terror camps anywhere ... if it plans attacking Egypt whether inside or outside the country." Egypt's original attacks were made on the city of Derna which has been under siege by Haftar for ages. The city is ruled by a Shura Council that is anti-Haftar. The group was instrumental in driving the Islamic State (IS) out of Derna some time ago. El-Sisi maintains that the armed men who carried out an attack in Egypt that killed 29 Coptic Christians and wounded many more were trained in camps in Derna. This is a highly unlikely story. More likely he used the terror attack to help out his friend Haftar while appearing to do something to stop terror attacks. The reports of clashes with the Islamic State have yet to be confirmed in that other reports do not mention it.

The Libya Observer makes no mention of any clashes with the IS but reports clashes between local gunmen and fighters from the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB) in the town of Waddan in the Al-Jufra region killed seven gunmen and five BDB fighters. Locals report that the BDB fighters were on the their way to the nearby Al-Jufra airbase after they had been ambushed by gunmen in Waddan who were loyal to Khalifa Haftar's Dignity Operation meant to clear Libya of his Islamist opponents. It began in May of 2014. Forces loyal to Haftar had attempted earlier in the day to advance into Al-Jufra airbase after a night of intense aerial bombardment. They were repelled by BDB fights on the road between Waddan and Zillah another town in the Al Jufra area where Haftar forces are stationed. After the clashes Haftar forces moved into Waddan while the BDB fighters withdrew into the Al-Jufra air base. There is no city of al Jufra as some tweets and reports suggest. It is an area in central Libya south of Sirte with five main towns Waddan, Zillah, Hun the capital, Sawknahan and Al-Fuqaha as well as the airbase. Zillah and Waddan are under control of forces loyal to Haftar.

There are many tweets describing the situation. One tweet claims: "Libyan Army regains control over Widdan & Sokana South of #Libya after heavy clashes with BDB & Mercenaries from Chad." Another tweet remarks: "LNA is gaining grounds in South Libya. HoR will be taking a much better seat at any future negotiations table" Indeed and the GNA appears to be making no effort to reinforce the BDB forces who appear to be providing the only resistance to Haftar. A third tweet notes: "Controlling Jufra is key to holding the rest of the southern region, where 80% of Libya's oil is produced. GNA well choke over this" The actions of the GNA are hard to decipher. They already gave up without a fight the Tamenhent airbase a key base in the south.

While numerous countries especially in the west support the GNA, none of them are bringing any complaints before the UN security council to condemn Egypt's air strikes and giving support to Haftar's military advances in Libya. Instead Egypt will ask for a meeting of the Council at which it will defend its bombings. Now that's chutzpah as the Israelis would put it. A tweet claims: "#Egypt organizes a June 27 UN security council meeting on combating terrorism in #Libya"

Free from the Islamic State Libya's Sirte has both a mayor and military governor

(Dec. 13)Just the other day, councilors from the city of Sirte elected Mukhtar al-Madani as mayor of Sirte. Today the military commanders of Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) named Brigadier Ahmed Abu Shahma as military governor of Sirte.

The Libya Observer claims the move is happening because BAM believes that Madani is loyal to eastern commander Khalifa Haftar and a supporter of his Dignity Operation. While this may have been true in the past, as reported in a recent Digital Journal article Madani said that the would be not be involved in the dispute between the UN-brokered Government of National Accord and the rival House of Representatives(HoR) government with its commander Haftar. He would be concentrating on rebuilding Sirte. Six of seven councilors who had earlier opposed Madani when he was appointed interim mayor by the HoR government supported him in the election. The election was organized under the auspices of the GNA. The present defense minister Al-Mahdi al-Bargathi was also a supporter of Operation Dignity but now supports the GNA and is a foe of Haftar.

Eastern authorities were furious that the election took place under the auspices of the GNA. According to a spokesperson for Operation Dignity: "Sirte was not for the sake of the nation, it was intended to raise Al-Qaeda over ISIS" Haftar and his Operation Dignity supporters have a habit of branding any Islamist foes as terrorists.

Such statements can only exacerbate the conflict between the mayor and the military governor. Last April, Madani appeared in a video showing support for Haftar and his Dignity Operation. He received military vehicles and weapons for the Sirte police department. However, BAM forces now provide security for Sirte, and the territory is now controlled by the GNA not the HoR. Appointing a military governor to replace elected officials is exactly what Haftar does in the east for which he has been roundly criticized. The mayor and councilors are in Tripoli. BAM may prevent them from moving to Sirte. So far the GNA has said nothing about this development.

There has been considerable discussion of the military governor appointment on twitter. One tweet points out the hypocrisy of appointing a military governor: It's contradictory. "A military ruler & elected Sirte municipal council?! Either be a consistent of opposing military rulers or be hypocrite." Another tweet notes: " Ahmed Abu Shahma is military governor of #Sirte, "elected" by the commanders of al Buyan al Marsous operation (GNA) yesterday. " Earlier, the UN envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler had tweeted: "‏@KoblerSRSG Congratulate new #Sirte Mayor Al-Maadani 4 his election. Timely & highly-needed step towards the recovery & re-stabilization of the city 1/2 " Obviously, the GNA authorities should have consulted with BAM before having the Sirte councilors elect a new mayor. One tweet suggests the two roles could be complementary: ‏"@ArmchairArab.@elfaitur as I understand the military head is basically in charge of security while mayor in charge of civil administration"

Remaining Islamic State fighters in Sirte Libya split into two groups

Forces of Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure of BAM) have managed to completely separate into two groups the few remaining fighters of the Islamic State(IS) who still are holding out in one small section of Sirte.

On Friday, according to Brigadier Mohammed Al-Gosri, spokesperson for BAM, BAM forces had managed to take control of the dividing line between neighborhood 600 and the sea-view Jiza apartment buildings. This has disconnected IS fighters from each other and also cut aid routes to the group. Al Gosri said that the division will make it easier to defeat the few remaining IS fighters in Sirte. He also said that the BAM fighters found tunnels connecting various locations held by IS that were used to move within the city. Al-Gosri said he expected the final battle would take place within hours. Fighting was still going on on Sunday.

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article giving details of how IS governed in Sirte, gleaned from records abandoned when they were overrun by BAM forces. They had a detailed tax code including special arrangements for herders: "A meticulous tax code found at another office showed how Islamic State funded itself at locals’ expense. Farmers were to turn over a calf if their herd reached 39 cows and a four-year-old camel if they owned up to 79 camels." The morality police also brought in revenue: "At the headquarters of the morality police, a dozen boxes filled with confiscated gold jewelry and stacks of money secured with rubber bands were scattered about. They are now in the hands of pro-government militias."

Over the weekend, at least eight BAM fighters were reported killed as they advanced into the 600 block faced with snipers and booby traps. The fighters advanced across two streets on Sunday but faced strong resistance. The offensive against Sirte and surrounding area has lasted five months now but must be almost finished. The IS held Sirte and the surrounding area for over a year now. Three women are shown surrendering here..

According to a report in Sputnik, more than 70 IS fighters were killed on Sunday. Local residents were said to have helped out by pointing out locations where IS fighters were sheltered. An account of action over the weekend can also be found here. If the casualty figures for the IS are correct, there must be well under a hundred IS fighters remaining. Since August the first, the U.S. has mounted over 200 bombing strikes on IS positions as part of Operation Odyssey Lightning. The operation is extended into October. There are also a few special forces from the U.K. and the U.S. providing help to BAM.

Islamic State still holding out in small area of Libyan city of Sirte

In spite of a prolonged offensive started back in May and help from US bombing raids, the Islamic State continues to hold a small area of Sirte Libya, their former stronghold.

Forces from Al Bunyan Al Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) are again making advances into the small area still held by the Islamic State (IS). BAM forces have been supported by US airstrikes since August 1 in an operation called Odyssey Lightning. The operation has been extended through October. There were also airstrikes by GNA planes as well as fire from tanks.

Last Sunday alone the US carried out 20 airstrikes. Pentagon spokesperson, Captain Jeff Davis said: "Every one of the strikes we do is based on a request from them, and we are down now into the last, densest part of the city. As they get to the dense areas, it's very hard to take out these sniper positions with anything other than air strikes." Since it began its operation US warplanes, drones and helicopters have carried out more than 200 strikes. Many of the strikes are launched from the USS Wasp, an amphibious assault ship just off the Libyan coast in the Mediterranian.

The militants are holding out in an area called Manara. Once this area is cleared, Misrata commanders said that the IS fighters would be defeated. Mohamed Al-Ghasri a spokesperson for BAM said: “This is the end for them. They have no other solutions, so that’s why they are fighting fiercely to stay in Manara.” The IS now controls a strip that is less than a kilometer long. However, weeks ago the final push against the IS was announced. The Sirte offensive so far has killed more than 450 BAM fighters and wounded about 2,500 more.

Somewhat surprisingly, a senior military officer from Misrata was critical of the US airstrikes claiming their aim is to prolong the offensive against the IS in the city. Spokesperson for Misrata Military Council Brigadier Ibrahim Bait Al-Mal said on TV: “The airstrikes were useless and inaccurate and their aim is clear to all, We can go without the US airstrikes from the beginning, but the government wants an endless war with limited airstrikes.” Al-Mal said that the US could through bombing end the battle within 48 hours. While this may be true it would involve horrendous civilian casualties and destruction. The air strikes happen on the order of BAM forces apparently, who do not want a huge number of civilian casulaties. They have themselves decided for pauses in the battle after suffering heavy casualties. Without the airstrikes and the help of a few special forces on the ground from the UK and the US, casualties would probably be much higher and the offensive less advanced. A more common complaint of those on the ground is that the bombings did not come sooner and some have expressed thanks for the support of the bombings and the special forces. Al-Mal provides no evidence that the strikes prolong the offensive. Pointing out that the US could end the offensive sooner does not show that the actual bombing prolonged the offensive.

Islamic State in Libya still resisting in one last district in Sirte

While there have been many announcements of the final battle to liberate Sirte from the remnants of the Islamic State(IS) there are a few IS fighters still holding out in one small area of the city.

Earlier, it had been predicted that the battle would be over before the Eid celebrations. It was not to be. Now that the holiday is over a renewed push to finish the job appears to be taking place. The forces of Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) are allied with the UN-supported Government of National Accord. The majority of the fighters are with brigades from the city of Misrata. Since August 1st, the BAM forces have been supported by air strikes by the U.S. as part of Operation Odyssey Lightning. The operation was extended for thirty days at the beginning of September. There are also a few special forces from the U.S. and the U.S. is providing logistical and other assistance to the BAM forces.

A Reuters report claims that two were killed in clashes today and six wounded according to a spokesperson from Misrata General Hospital, after the BAM forces shelled areas where the remaining IS fighters are hiding. Mohamed Ghasri a spokesperson for the BAM forces said: "Our forces targeted on Sunday hideouts of Daesh in Neighbourhood No.3's 600 block area and Geza Bahriya with heavy artillery shelling." "Daesh" is an Arabic term for the Islamic State. Ghasri also claimed that two IS commanders, Hassam Karami, and Waldi Ferjani, had been killed during fighting inside Sirte.

A military source told the Libya Prospect, that BAM forces had entered the remaining sections of district 3 in Sirte, calling it the decisive battle against the few IS fighters who remained in the city. The source said that artillery and tanks had begun shelling the area of the 656 residential buildings, Al-Jeeza, Al-Bahrea, 656 houses, and social security district. The source said that the forces had been in a break for the past few days as they prepare a plan.

A report from the Middle East Eye claims that the BAM forces were able to detonate two suicide vehicles before the IS suicide bombers could detonate their vehicles. Reda Issa, a spokesperson for the BAM forces said that field commanders held several meetings before deciding to resume after what was said to be a two-week lull. Issasaid: "Progress is now being achieved and our forces are clashing with Daesh fighters." The BAM forces captured several buildings, including a school that had been made into a car bomb factory, and also a field hospital.

Since the offensive against Sirte began months ago, 450 BAM forces have been killed and about 2,500 wounded. The Misrata hospital, the only one in the region has been overwhelmed as it tries to cope with the casualties. The situation has been one reason the offensive has slowed so there will be less casualties. Fortunately, Italy is setting up a field hospital in Misrata to treat the wounded. There will be about 65 doctors and nurses, 135 logistics staff, and 100 troops to provide security. Work is already underway.

Islamic State cleared from most of Sirte but resistance still fierce

The forces of Al-Bunyan Al-Marsoos (Solid Structure or BAM) are engaged in a final advance to clear out the last remaining fighters of the Islamic State (IS) or Daesh from their former stronghold of Sirte.

BAM forces are loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord. BAM's media center said: "Our forces are advancing inside parts of district Number Three where the Daesh remnants are entrenched." The BAM offensive has been backed by U.S. air support since August 1 and there are also small numbers of special forces from the UK and US helping out in the offensive. The IS had occupied Sirte since June of 2015.

The cost of the offensive is high as just on Sunday 38 BAM forces were killed and 185 wounded as they took district one. In yesterday's fighting at least 10 BAM fighters were killed. The Misrata hospital has been overwhelmed by the number of wounded coming from the front. On Sunday, the main reception area was used as an emergency area to treat injured fighters. Doctor Akram Jumaa described Sunday as "blood day": “I carried out dozens of surgeries that lasted until this morning, and some others are still ongoing.” Space is so limited up to five or six fighters are put together in a single room.

There are estimated to about one thousand fighters involved in the offensive. Since the conflict began more than 400 BAM fighters have been killed and almost 2,500 wounded. An Afriqyah Airways plane had its tires vandalized as it was about to take off with wounded BAM fighters. Lax security at the Mitiga airport was blamed for the vandalism.

On Sunday, BAM forces captured the Qurtoba mosque which was controlled by the IS. The IS used a total of 12 booby-trapped cars to halt the BAM advance but many were exploded before they could reach their targets with the help of US airstrikes.

Spokesperson for BAM military operations, Mohammed al-Ghasri said that all clashes are now taking place in residential area three and Jiza, a military sea district north of residential area one and adjacent to residential area three. Al-Ghasri said: “War will come to an end once this battle ended. We’re still investigating the validity of the news that IS militants have their families with them inside the area, where they are trapped."

Why did the US decide to provide air support for Libyan offensive against ISIS in Sirte?

On August 1st, the Obama administration announced that Operation Odyssey Lightning had begun, a series of air strikes against the remnants of the Islamic State, or Daesh, surrounded in a confined area of their former stronghold Sirte.

The strikes were coordinated with a ground assault by the Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) forces loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). The U.S. has carried out targeted air strikes in the past and also has a few special forces working with BAM, but also in Benghazi with the rival government and forces led by General Khalifa Haftar — who has so far rejected the GNA and refused to join its armed forces under the command of the GNA Presidential Council (PC).

The official reasoning for the strikes is given in a government release of a statement by Pentagon Press Secretary, Peter Cook. The aim was to help the BAM forces to defeat the IS in Sirte. The strikes were recommended by Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Chairman Dunford. Cook claims that the strikes were consistent with US policy of working with capable and motivated local forces against the IS. The statement notes that BAM forces have already made significant advances against the IS and the air strikes will enable BAM forces to "make a decisive strategic advance". The statement concludes:The U.S. stands with the international community in supporting the GNA as it strives to restore stability and security to Libya. These actions and those we have taken previously will help deny ISIL a safe haven in Libya from which it could attack the United States and our allies.

Given that the BAM forces have the IS forces surrounded and would in time defeat them without help, the timing of the bombings is a bit strange. Why did the US not help BAM from the first when it could have been very helpful to the GNA and have meant less casualties? The GNA no doubt was concerned that asking the US at that time could have resulted in a backlash over overt foreign interference. The GNA is already often criticized at being a creation of, and beholden to foreign interests. However, recently the French have been discovered as supporting the rival House of Representatives (HoR) government and its forces under General Haftar. Three French agents were killed when a helicopter crashed or was shot down while on a reconnaissance mission for Haftar. The GNA may have wanted to show that it too can gain international support.

The raids were condemned by the HoR and Haftar even though they are proponents of the war on terror. Haftar had announced that he was marching to liberate Sirte but took no part in the offensive. The Grand Mufti has joined his opponent Haftar in also condemning the attacks as unacceptable interference in Libyan affairs. Areligious body also condemned the attacks, as reported by the Libyan Observer:The country’s top religious body has totally refused the call for foreign intervention. The Fatwa House said in a statement on Tuesday that the request of the Presidential Council aims to steal the efforts of the revolutionaries and their sacrifices in Sirte front lines.

“This request is an insult to the large numbers of martyrs in Sirte and an attempt to save Haftar in Benghazi on the pretext of fighting terrorism,” the statement reads, calling on all concerned parties to bear their responsibilities and reject this intervention.The BAM forces themselves approved the attacks but wished they had begun sooner. The BAM forces have been virtually stalled for some time and have faced heavy losses from the determined resistance of the few remaining IS fighters. They face snipers, IED's and suicide attacks. It is not surprising that they should welcome help from whatever quarters.

An article in the Atlantic, by Dominic Tierney, editor of Atlantic and Associate Professor of Political Science at Swarthmore College, notes that the US attacks represent a considerable escalation of US involvement in the conflict and in particular it involves publicly choosing to support one side, the GNA, militarily. However, the article argues that the bombing operation is very much evidence of the short-term thinking and lack of long term plans, which characterized the earlier intervention which overthrew Gadaffi.

Tierney remarks that Obama seeks to use force to degrade the IS, but avoids getting into wars using large numbers of boots on the ground that can result in casualties that cause political problems. The articlenotes:The current air campaign in Libya exhibits all the hallmarks of Obama’s way of war: the careful and calibrated use of force, the reliance on air power rather than ground troops, the coordination with local allies — in this case, the GNA, which requested the anti-ISIS strikes.

While the policy may be successful, in the short term there is no clear plan for an endgame. Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said about US policy in the Middle East that the US was basically playing out its tactics day by day. U.S. Marine Lt. General Thomas Waldhauser, when asked about US policy in Libya said: “I am not aware of any overall grand strategy at this point.”

Perhaps, as the article suggests Obama does not want to plan too far ahead in Libya as he could be drawn into more involvement than he wants, perhaps even into "nation building". Obama also must realize that he soon will not be president and may leave it to the next president to make plans for the future. Yet without a long term plan there is not likely to be a durable success in Libya. The bombing campaign is for only 30 days. The GNA still lacks power within the country and has been unable to create a truly national unified government including the HoR and General Haftar. While all of this may be true, the US may be reluctant to commit itself to a much greater degree of intervention since it is uncertain of what the results would be. Perhaps, the US policy makes sense and is based upon a realization that even great powers may not be able to control events in the manner they wish with long term plans.

In a world where it is not easy to control events it may make sense to hedge ones bets and be cautious in any intervention. Tierney writes:France, Britain, Germany, Spain, and Italy have all backed the GNA as the recognized government in Libya. But Western governments seem to be hedging their bets. In July, three French special operations troops died in a helicopter accident near Benghazi, after working on an intelligence mission alongside House of Representatives forces. The international community must send a consistent message about which Libyan groups are considered legitimate.The members of the international community do not have all the same aims. Russia, Egypt, the UAE and likely France support Haftar and the HoR while all also express support for the GNA. Even the UK and US have special forces in Benghazi supporting the HoR and Haftar.

Tierney is certainly correct that the Obama move may set a precedent to supporting the GNA in the future and defeating the IS does not "finish the job" but perhaps it is wrong to think in the first place that there is such a thing a finishing the job. It implies at type of imperialist thinking that is itself part of the problem that the U.S. faces.

Russian reaction to the bombing has been negative, as it shows clear military support for the GNA while Russia supports Haftar and the HoR and gives only lip-service to the GNA. A Russian interviewwith Yuri Zinin of the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations points out the bombing was not authorized by the UN. Zinin suggests that Obama wants to improve his image at the end of his presidency. and notes that the request for the bombing came from the GNA. However, the GNA is very weak and has been unsuccessful so far at creating a unified and stable government. In response to the question 'what can the U.S. do in Lbya?' Zinin replies:"I do not know the answer to this question. When Sarraj said that he had asked the Americans for help, all others stood in opposition to him. They could not understand how it was at all possible to ask the Americans to bomb Libya at the time when the country is disintegrated and the government is illegitimate. This is total chaos. There is no centralized power, and the reconciliation process hardly brings any results."This is simply wrong on several accounts. It is the type of answer you would expect from a Haftar supporter. All others did not stand in opposition to Serraj when he asked the US for help. The GNA Presidency Council support him and the State Council as well. So do the BAM forces as well as many others. The GNA is called illegitimate but is recognized by the UN and most countries as the sole legitimate government of Libya.

Islamic State likely to face defeat in the next few days in Sirte Libya

According Brigadier Mohammed Al-Gosri, the spokesperson for Al-Bunyan Al-Marsoos (Solid Structure or BAM), artillery shelling on ISIS militants encircled in a small area of Sirte has continued for five days.

Al-Gosri said that the resistance is likely to collapse in the next few days. He said most of the militants are hiding in the Ouagadougou Conference Hall, headquarters for the group. However, he said that there were pockets of resistance in some residential areas. Over the last few days the BAM forces do not seem to have advanced far and they were within attacking distance of the Ouagadougou Hall since the first days of July. However Rida Issa spokesperson for the Misrata forces of BAM said: "Our forces have...targeted militants with artillery and air force around Ouagadougou complex, Ghiza Asskariya district, and in the city center. They have targeted Islamic State members, vehicles, ammunition stores, and control rooms."

The two-month long offensive against the Islamic State has been costly for BAM forces with the death toll now 241 according to sources at the Misrata Hospital. The sources also said that 1400 wounded fighter are currently being treated both within and outside of Libya. Some are in Turkey, Italy and Tunisia. The retaking of Sirte, which the IS captured in June last year would be a major blow to the group as they would no longer control any cities or even significant territory in Libya. No doubt there are cells in various locations, and many fighters may have fled the offensive.

Some suggest that if the IS is defeated that divisions within Libya may increase. An article in MSN explains that most of the BAM forces are militia from Misrata. They get almost no help from the Government of National Accord (GNA) to which they are loyal at present. Many do not have proper helmets or bullet-proof vests that could have saved many lives. Misrata fighterMohamed Yousef said: "We get nothing from the unity government. This is supposed to be a fight for Libya, but it's been 70 percent led by Misrata. If nothing changes, Seraj's time will come. Maybe he will do well, but if nothing changes?" As the Libyan Gazette puts it the Misrata militia are frustrated by the GNA attempt to somehow accommodate General Khalifa Haftar who refuses to recognize the GNA government or cooperate with its armed forces. The Misrata militia are opposed to Haftar having any role in the GNA government and regard him as a war criminal.

The divisions that many correctly observe were there before the Sirte offensive. The most that the defeat of the Islamic State might do is exacerbate it. There are already a group of militia, the Defend Benghazi Brigades, who have launched attacks on Haftar's forces at Ajdabiya and on the road to Benghazi.

Martin Kobler, the Special Representative of the Secretary General, is apparently trying to find new means of moving the Libya Political Agreement forward after failing so far to get the HoR to vote confidence in the GNA. However, it is hard to see how he can accommodate the demands of Haftar and his supporters, who want him to remain commander of the new GNA armed forces, and those such as the Misrata militia who want to ban him from any role in the GNA.