OECD report warns that automation revolution could put 66 million jobs at risk

A new report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warns members that they are not preparing workers for an automation revolution that could see 66 million workers replaced by machines in coming years.

Thirty two countries were studied. The most vulnerable, one in seven workers on average, were less likely to receive any help when being replaced than those whose jobs were more secure. The OECD report said that 14 percent of jobs in developed countries were highly adapted to be automated. A further 32 percent of jobs were likely to be carried out in quite a different way.

Countries differ in the degree they are vulnerable to automation

In Slovakia a third of all jobs are highly automatable but in Norway on the other extreme only 6 percent of jobs are such.

The report says: “More generally, jobs in Anglo-Saxon, Nordic countries and the Netherlands are less automatable than jobs in Eastern European countries, South European countries, Germany, Chile and Japan.”

The UK was identified in the report as being one of the countries least affected by automation. However, the UK still had one in ten jobs that were at high risk and a quarter of all jobs could be significantly changed.

Sectors most affected by automation

Most subject to further automation were jobs in the manufacturing industry and agriculture. However, service sectors such as postal and courier services, land transport, and food services are also highly vulnerable.

Outlook not as bad in US as 2013 study indicated

A 2013 study had predicted that 47 percent of US jobs were at risk. While that is much too high an estimate according to the new report it is still expected that 13 million jobs will be lost in the US. The report suggests that in some local economies the impact will be greater than the effect the decline of the car industry had on Detroit.

Estimates of how many jobs in the US are at risk vary greatly. The enclosed video claims that 80 million jobs are at risk, more than the OECD estimates for 32 countries. Other sources vary greatly as well. What is not in doubt is that a significant number of jobs will be replaced by AI and automation.

Who is most at risk?

Workers with low skills and young workers were most at risk the report claims. Jobs with the highest risk were in low-skill sectors such as food preparation, cleaning, and labouring jobs. Those most at risk also were less likely to participate in formal education or distance learning. The report states: “The risk of automation is not distributed equally among workers [...] Occupations with the highest estimated automatability typically only require basic to low level of education.”

The report emphasizes the need for young workers to gain work experience while they study. It also stressed the need for retraining and social protection for workers for those at high risk of seeing their jobs disappear or significantly reduced.

The report said: “In parallel, the large share of workers whose jobs are likely to change quite significantly as a result of automation calls for countries to strengthen their adult learning policies to prepare their workforce for the changes in job requirements they are likely to face."

A description of the nature of the report's analysis can be found here.

It should be noted that automation also produces many new jobs often well paid in order to produce software, automated devices, and repair them.

Previously published in Digital Journal

Why the U.S. will not follow Finland's successful education reform model

            Chinese model. How to increase test scores and suicides.



 Finland is well known for the success of its students in many areas as measured by international surveys. The PISA survey takes places every three years by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The survey looks at the performance of 15 year-olds in reading,, math, and science. In every survey since 2000 Finland has ranked at or near the top.The U.S. has not come near the top group. However the U.S. is adopting Chinese or East Asian models of standardized tests and the goals of measurement and striving for better and better results.  Finland starts out with an entirely different goal equity.
    Many of the key methods that the U.S. has adopted are rejected in Finland. The Finnish reforms did not even strive for excellence but for equality so that all students would have the same chances. This is assured by having an excellent education system with all the schools available to all students with no fees even through the complete post-secondary system. The idea of a tuition free university system is a reality in Finland. It is not even a Utopian fantasy in the U.S. A small country without any special resources nevertheless is able to provide free education at all levels for everyone. The U.S. the greatest economic power in the world has huge tuition fees and students are often saddled with huge debts when they graduate.
   Another difference between the U.S. and Finland is that Finland has no private schools. Except for some state funded church run schools everyone attends public schools. Finnish teachers are well paid  and well qualified for their jobs. They are regarded as professionals and are given responsibility for making up their own tests rather than having standardized tests for everyone. There is no merit pay. Teachers are regarded as professionals.
    In the U.S. schools compete with each other to see who can do best in evaluations based on standard tests. Finnish schools do not compete they cooperate with another. For much more see this Atlantic article.

Australia tops Better Life Index rankings

Australia came up on top of the rankings in the Better Life Index of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Each of eleven categories were ranked in 36 countries.

In spite of the highest rankings the Labor government of Julia Gillard has low ratings in polls in Australia! However, the Index stats are excellent. Life expectancy is 82 years two years above the OECD average of 80. Employment is also well above the average.

After Australia the next best country is Norway. Coming in a respectable third is the U.S. in spite of having a relatively high unemployment rate. Canada is further behind coming sixth after fourth place Sweden and fifth place Denmark. Turkey was in last place.

The new scale was used beginning in 2011 as a way to measure well being of countries in more ways than simply economic growth. As well as income and education, the scale includes work-life balance and life satisfaction.

Canada shows increasing income inequality. The report notes::"In Canada, the [household net-adjusted disposable income] of the top 20 per cent of the population is 53,988 USD a year, whereas the bottom 20 per cent live on 10,077 USD a year." Canada does not fare well on work-life balance or civic engagement either.

The average voter participation in OECD countries is 73 per cent while Canada is just 61 per cent. For more see this article and also here.