US has new plan for regime change in Venezuela

(April 9) The self-declared interim president of Venezuela Juan Guaido who is supported by the US and many of its allies originated the idea that the US might be able somehow to use the COVID-19 pandemic as a way to secure regime change in Venezuela.

The Guaido project has failed so far

While the US and many other countries recognized Guaido as interim president of Venezuela after he declared himself president in early 2019. For a year now the US has been pressing to help Guaido gain actual control of the country and depose president Nicolas Maduro so far Maduro has kept a firm hold on power. Attempts to turn the military against him have failed as have other strategies. Now the US has decided on a new plan which has less to do with ensuring that Guaido becomes president than a hope that Maduro will lose the presidency.

The new US plan

The plan is called "The Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela". Under the plan both Guaido and Maduro would step down and a five-member governing council would govern until presidential elections could be held. As an incentive the Trump administration would be prepared to lift the crippling sanctions it has imposed upon Venezuela providing Venezuelan leaders cooperate with the plan.

The US complains bitterly that countries such as Russia interfere in its elections. However with Venezuela the US has supported a coup attempt, imposed sanctions, and threatened military intervention, as if this is quite normal given that Maduro who was elected is often described as a dictator. Now it feels that it is quite in order that it order Maduro to step down and tells the country how it is to be run before presidential elections. The US does not want to influence political outcomes but dictate what Venezuela must do.

The US special envoy Elliot Abrams told a briefing at the Center for Strategic and International Studies that US officials hoped that the US plan would trigger discussion among top officials in Maduro's inner circle given that the country faces massive economic and humanitarian problems that were exacerbated by the COVID-19 outbreak. In other words, the plan is to use the misery in Venezuela that is to a considerable degree caused by US actions to turn Maduro's close allies into accepting the US command that he relinquish the presidency, and in return the US will help alleviate some of the misery it is causing.

Abrams said: “Our hope is that so many people in Venezuela … inside the government will look at the proposal and maybe say, ‘Well, Maduro needs to leave power, but we are treated reasonably."

Instead of easing sanctions so that Venezuela can suffer less from the COVID-19 pandemic the US uses lifting them as a bribe to try and persuade Venezuela to accede to US demands.

Venezuela rejects US plan

After a week no one in the government has praised the plan. The Maduro government rejected the plan. The US claims it expected this. Abrams said that he hoped the US proposal would be discussed as the negative effects of the COVID-19 epidemic loomed. He said that he hoped officials would decide that accepting US demands would be the best way to ensure international aid. In other words the US expects Maduro supporters to turn against him in order to obtain relief from the misery and hardships that the US is forcing upon Venezuela while they lack the resources to fight a pandemic; This is the US version of humanitarian aid.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

After a year US still offers ongoing support for Juan Guaido as interim president of Venezuela

(Jauary 21) It is now a year since the US announced that it regarded Juan Guaido as the recognized ruler of Venezuela. In late January last year Guaido declared himself the legitimate president of Venezuela replacing the elected president Nicolas Maduro.

Guaido assumes the presidency of Venezuela

The election of Maduro in early January of 2019 was regarded as illegitimate by many. Guaido seized the opportunity to declare himself acting president as described in Wikipedia: "After what he and critics of the Maduro administration described as the "illegitimate" inauguration of Maduro on 10 January 2019, Guaidó challenged Maduro's claim to the presidency.[60] The National Assembly declared Guaidó was willing to assume the responsibilities of the presidency,[61][62] and continued to plan to remove Maduro. Guaidó told the Wall Street Journal that "It's not about twisting arms, breaking kneecaps, but rather holding out a hand" and offered "amnesty to military officers who joined efforts for a transition in power".[20] They called for demonstrations on 23 January,[63][64] the 61st anniversary of the overthrow of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez.[65] Large numbers of demonstrators came out in cities throughout Venezuela and across the world.[65][66] Guaidó declared he was acting president and took the presidential oath at a rally in Caracas.[67]"

The US recognized Guaido as president just minutes after he declared himself president and shortly after Canada which has been active in supporting the coup followed suit. Russia, China, Cuba, and Turkey are among those countries that recognize Maduro. As of June 2019, 54 countries have recognized Guaido as the president of Venezuela.

Maduro accused the US of backing a coup. In December of 2018 Guaido had gone to Washington DC where he met the Organisation of American States (OAS) Secretary General Luis Almagro. The OAS rejects the presidency of Maduro. On 14 of January he also went to a meeting in Colombia for a meeting of the Lima Group at which Maduro's presidency was rejected. Canada has been active in the Lima Group to which the US does not belong.

Attempts to force Maduro out

It is now a year since what is in effect a coup attempt by Guaido supported by the US and others began. In spite of large demonstrations, attempts to gain support from the military, buy the populace off with aid and the implementation of sanctions that have ruined the economy, the Maduro regime has managed to survive.

The US uses sanctions and other methods to virtually destroy the economy and make life miserable for Venezuelans. Some sanctions date back to the Obama era but have become more extensive during the Trump administration: "U.S. sanctions have become increasingly aggressive since they were first announced by former US President Barack Obama in 2015. Under pressure from the United States, foreign companies stopped doing business with the country. Citibank closed Venezuela's foreign accounts.President Donald Trump intensified sanctions in 2017 and this year imposed an oil embargo that blocked the purchase of petroleum from Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA. It also confiscated Venezuela's US subsidiary CITGO, worth $8 billion. It was a huge blow for Venezuela, which received 90% of government revenue from the oil industry.The U.S. government has also frozen $5.5 billion of Venezuelan funds in international accounts in at least 50 banks and financial institutions. Even if Venezuela could get money abroad, the United States has long blocked international trade by threatening sanctions on foreign companies for doing business with the country."" The US is willing to try to starve Venezuelans to death and actions that have led to many fleeing the miserable conditions all in order to help bring what it calls democracy to Venezuela. No doubt regime change would bring back US supported international oil companies to Venezuelan oil fields as well.

US pledges continued support for Guaido

Guaido support has weakened dramatically: "By the end of 2019, support for Guaidó dropped, with protests organized by his movement resulting with low participation.[18][19][23][252] Pollster Datanalisis published figures showing that support for Guaidó decreased from 61% in February to 42% in November 2019.[23] According to Jesús Seguías, the head of the Venezuelan analysis firm Datincorp, "For years Washington and the Venezuelan opposition have said that Nicolás Maduro, and before him Hugo Chávez, were weak and about to fall ... but it’s clear that’s not the case".[253] Analyst Carlos Pina stated "The military support to President Maduro remains intact ... the opposition will need to rethink its strategy" and that "Guaido has also been very limited in suggesting or proposing a strategy that could change the current [status quo]".[19]"

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insists that the US has not given up on Guaido. Even though he offered no specifics, Pompeo claimed that the US is not done and more efforts to support Guaiido would be coming from the Trump administration.

On his part, Guaido is trying to drum up international support with a trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos. It is possible he could meet with President Trump there although nothing has been announced as yet.

The US negative actions against Venezuela have provided an opportunity for countries such as China and Russia to invest in Venezuelan oil and other parts of the economy. Chinese investment may be slowing down partly because of US sanctions but Venezuela is becoming even more dependent on Russia.

The Maduro government appears to frightened of US reaction if it were to jail Guaido for treason as would no doubt happen in most countries. Guaido is subject to a travel ban but feels quite safe it would seem in violating it to fly off to Davos to garner international support for his coup. If he is arrested when he returns as he should be under the law there will be a huge international outcry about the dictatorial action of the Maduro government.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Trump had considered a full naval blockade of Venezuela

US officials report that President Trump has raised the idea of imposing a full naval blockade on Venezuela several times during the last year and a half as a way of forcing regime change on the government of Nicolas Maduro.

In recent weeks Trump has again raised the issue

In recent weeks Trump is said to have said that the US navy could prevent all ships from entering and exiting Venezuela. One person claims that Trump has said "we should get the ships out there" and " prevent anything from going in". Trump has already told media that a blockade is an option. There is no full naval blockade as yet although the US uses pressure wherever it can to stop countries and companies from doing business with Venezuela and has sanctions against the country. A list of all the actions and sanctions can be found here.

The White House has so far had no comments on the reports. A blockade would be a considerable escalation of Trump's actions against Maduro. Some countries might very well ignore the blockade. What will happen if Russian or Chinese vessels use military vessels to escort their ships through the blockade?

Trump supports Juan Guaido as president and his coup

Since the start of the year when Juan Guaido proclaimed himself as president Trump along with many other countries support Guaido as interim president and his supporters in a coup against president Nicolas Maduro. There have been several attempts to overthrow Maduro and to entice the armed forces to join the opposition but so far all have failed.

Attempts to break the stalemate

Earlier in the year there were talks in Norway and at them the Maduro government offered to hold early elections: "Inside an Oslo hotel in May, negotiators for President Nicolás Maduro made a startling offer. The opposition and the United States were demanding new presidential elections. The Maduro loyalists — who were in Norway with the opposition for mediated talks — had signaled their willingness to hold such a vote within nine to 12 months."

The negotiations are likely to be fruitless as the two sides are too far apart on the conditions for the elections. Maduro's negotiators want removal of US sanctions as part of any deal and that Maduro should stay in power until the new vote is held. However, the US vows not to remove sanctions until Maduro leaves power. The US has offered Maduro security guarantees if he agrees both to a new vote and to go into exile.

Recently there has been communication between the US and an important Venezuelan official Diosdado Cabello: "The United States has opened up secret communications with Venezuela's socialist party boss, as members of President Nicolas Maduro's inner circle seek guarantees they would not face retribution if they cede to growing demands to remove him, a senior US administration official has told the Associated Press news agency.""

The US is obviously trying to arrange guarantees for the security of top Venezuelan officials should they give in to US demands and force Maduro to resign. This is just another of the US tactics to achieve regime change.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

On Venezuela

The two tweets discussed show how imagining a somewhat similar situation happening in the US or elsewhere would show how a coup such as in Venezuela would be handled.

The first tweet is by Daniel McAdams:

Imagine if an American politician took foreign money and actively recruited the military to attack the elected US government with the intent of overthrow.

McAdams says on his Twitter page: "Executive Director, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Tweets are mine alone and often terribly rude. So yeah, there's that" There's nothing rude about his quoted tweet but it is certainly interesting.

The attempted coup against Trump

Imagine that Trump makes some disastrous policy mistakes that send the US economy in a tailspin. He keeps on as usual denying what actually is happening. However, his former corporate friends get tired of his antics and actions and so do many US allies such as Canada the UK and others. There is internal opposition as well.

Finally Nancy Pelosi the Democratic speaker of the House communicates with Canadian, UK and officials of several Latin American allies. They decide that Trump has to go. Not only is he making the US a laughing stock but also an economic disaster. They think not only that he probably won the election unfairly because of Russian interference but that he also has several times violated the constitution. This line is pushed by the foreign media and the Democratic opposition.

The Democracy Group as the foreign countries in opposition to Trump call themselves have secret meetings for almost a year planning what to do. Eventually they decide that they will declare that Pelosi is the legitimate interim president given that Trump violated the US Constitution and won the election illegitimately. The foreign members of the group also send money to help organize demonstrations.

After Pelosi declares herself interim president, they also send money to support her and the Democrats. Sanctions are levied against Trump and his officials.

Pelosi asks the armed forces to defect from Trump and accept her as Commander in Chief. She also gets the UK and other allies to freeze US assets or even turn them over to the Pelosi group.

The Trump administration would not wait around. It would arrest the leaders of the attempted coup. Ban demonstrations. If any happened they would be put down ruthlessly as being organized by traitors. Leaders of demonstrations would be arrested.

In this case it is Trump not the opposition that caused the economic chaos. However, this is the position that many interventionists argue happened in Venezuela through Maduro's policies. But surely one has to admit that in the Venezuelan situation it is even worse as the coup leaders such as the US deliberately through sanctions and otherwise made the situation worse.

Is a coup possible in the US?

The idea of a coup in the US may seem like complete fantasy but actually given certain conditions quite a substantial minority of Americans would support a coup. A recent article notes: In 2017, about 25 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans said they favored a military intervention if the country faced rampant crime or corruption.

Another article about a possible military coup in the US concludes: "Experts who study coups don't think one is in the cards for the US. Natasha Ezrow, a senior lecturer on government at the UK's University of Essex and a commentator on authoritarianism, emphasized that "a coup is completely unlikely." Tom Ginsburg, a scholar of coups and professor of law at the University of Chicago, felt the same way as Ezrow—he published a paper to that effect earlier this month. But, he added, "We're at this moment where it's very good to be considering these things."

So at least the possibility of a US coup is worth discussing and if there were such a coup it would have significant report if it was for corruption. With a very poor economic situation it would no doubt receive much more. Perhaps Americans would be against any foreign intervention but perhaps not if the circumstances were dire enough.

The failure of Maduro to arrest Guaido

A tweet by me in response to McAdams:

If Maduro had acted as most any other leader would against a person clearly committing treason there probably would be a civil war now. Guaido should be in jail awaiting trial. Ken Hanly added,

Daniel McAdams@DanielLMcAdams

Scenario playing out. Guaido clearly happy to green-light an American invasion of Venezuela. Need a few false flags - a massacre at an anti-Maduro rally would suffice. Guaido then formally requests US assistance as the "legitimate" head of Venezuelan government. Washington acts. https://twitter.com/venanalysis/status/1092083193187102720 …

2:14 PM - 3 Feb 2019

Can you imagine in any country in the world if an opposition leader announced they were the president and the existing president and his or her government was illegitimate that the actual president would allow the leader of the attempted coup roam free, lead demonstrations, and give interviews to foreign media? Yet the global press for the most part sees this as quite normal and get upset when any move against Guaido is taken such as forbidding him from leaving the country or freezing his bank accounts. They even fail to see this as an anomaly.

Maduro is leery of taking any steps that could lead to more intervention and a civil war. He is trying to avoid a civil war. Meanwhile the US says the time for dialogue is over. The only peaceful means out seems to be surrender. DW, a prominent German news source, is one of the very few outlets that even discusses the issue. DW believes that Maduro is fearful of what the US will do if he arrests Guaido and charges him as shown on the appended video.

Previously published in Digital Journal

Imagine if a US politician schemed with foreign powers to declare him or herself president

The two tweets discussed show how imagining a somewhat similar situation happening in the US or elsewhere would show how a coup such as in Venezuela would be handled.

The first tweet is by Daniel McAdams:

Imagine if an American politician took foreign money and actively recruited the military to attack the elected US government with the intent of overthrow.

McAdams says on his Twitter page: "Executive Director, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Tweets are mine alone and often terribly rude. So yeah, there's that" There's nothing rude about his quoted tweet but it is certainly interesting.

The attempted coup against Trump

Imagine that Trump makes some disastrous policy mistakes that send the US economy in a tailspin. He keeps on as usual denying what actually is happening. However, his former corporate friends get tired of his antics and actions and so do many US allies such as Canada the UK and others. There is internal opposition as well.

Finally Nancy Pelosi the Democratic speaker of the House communicates with Canadian, UK and officials of several Latin American allies. They decide that Trump has to go. Not only is he making the US a laughing stock but also an economic disaster. They think not only that he probably won the election unfairly because of Russian interference but that he also has several times violated the constitution. This line is pushed by the foreign media and the Democratic opposition.

The Democracy Group as the foreign countries in opposition to Trump call themselves have secret meetings for almost a year planning what to do. Eventually they decide that they will declare that Pelosi is the legitimate interim president given that Trump violated the US Constitution and won the election illegitimately. The foreign members of the group also send money to help organize demonstrations.

After Pelosi declares herself interim president, they also send money to support her and the Democrats. Sanctions are levied against Trump and his officials.

Pelosi asks the armed forces to defect from Trump and accept her as Commander in Chief. She also gets the UK and other allies to freeze US assets or even turn them over to the Pelosi group.

The Trump administration would not wait around. It would arrest the leaders of the attempted coup. Ban demonstrations. If any happened they would be put down ruthlessly as being organized by traitors. Leaders of demonstrations would be arrested.

In this case it is Trump not the opposition that caused the economic chaos. However, this is the position that many interventionists argue happened in Venezuela through Maduro's policies. But surely one has to admit that in the Venezuelan situation it is even worse as the coup leaders such as the US deliberately through sanctions and otherwise made the situation worse.

The failure of Maduro to arrest Guaido

A tweet by me in response to McAdams:

If Maduro had acted as most any other leader would against a person clearly committing treason there probably would be a civil war now. Guaido should be in jail awaiting trial. Ken Hanly added,

Daniel McAdams@DanielLMcAdams

Scenario playing out. Guaido clearly happy to green-light an American invasion of Venezuela. Need a few false flags - a massacre at an anti-Maduro rally would suffice. Guaido then formally requests US assistance as the "legitimate" head of Venezuelan government. Washington acts. https://twitter.com/venanalysis/status/1092083193187102720 …

2:14 PM - 3 Feb 2019

Can you imagine in any country in the world if an opposition leader announced they were the president and the existing president and his or her government was illegitimate that the actual president would allow the leader of the attempted coup roam free, lead demonstrations, and give interviews to foreign media? Yet the global press for the most part sees this as quite normal and get upset when any move against Guaido is taken such as forbidding him from leaving the country or freezing his bank accounts. They even fail to see this as an anomaly.

Maduro is leery of taking any steps that could lead to more intervention and a civil war. He is trying to avoid a civil war. Meanwhile the US says the time for dialogue is over. The only peaceful means out seems to be surrender. DW, a prominent German news source, is one of the very few outlets that even discusses the issue. DW believes that Maduro is fearful of what the US will do if he arrests Guaido and charges him as shown on the appended video.