On Venezuela

The two tweets discussed show how imagining a somewhat similar situation happening in the US or elsewhere would show how a coup such as in Venezuela would be handled.

The first tweet is by Daniel McAdams:

Imagine if an American politician took foreign money and actively recruited the military to attack the elected US government with the intent of overthrow.

McAdams says on his Twitter page: "Executive Director, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Tweets are mine alone and often terribly rude. So yeah, there's that" There's nothing rude about his quoted tweet but it is certainly interesting.

The attempted coup against Trump

Imagine that Trump makes some disastrous policy mistakes that send the US economy in a tailspin. He keeps on as usual denying what actually is happening. However, his former corporate friends get tired of his antics and actions and so do many US allies such as Canada the UK and others. There is internal opposition as well.

Finally Nancy Pelosi the Democratic speaker of the House communicates with Canadian, UK and officials of several Latin American allies. They decide that Trump has to go. Not only is he making the US a laughing stock but also an economic disaster. They think not only that he probably won the election unfairly because of Russian interference but that he also has several times violated the constitution. This line is pushed by the foreign media and the Democratic opposition.

The Democracy Group as the foreign countries in opposition to Trump call themselves have secret meetings for almost a year planning what to do. Eventually they decide that they will declare that Pelosi is the legitimate interim president given that Trump violated the US Constitution and won the election illegitimately. The foreign members of the group also send money to help organize demonstrations.

After Pelosi declares herself interim president, they also send money to support her and the Democrats. Sanctions are levied against Trump and his officials.

Pelosi asks the armed forces to defect from Trump and accept her as Commander in Chief. She also gets the UK and other allies to freeze US assets or even turn them over to the Pelosi group.

The Trump administration would not wait around. It would arrest the leaders of the attempted coup. Ban demonstrations. If any happened they would be put down ruthlessly as being organized by traitors. Leaders of demonstrations would be arrested.

In this case it is Trump not the opposition that caused the economic chaos. However, this is the position that many interventionists argue happened in Venezuela through Maduro's policies. But surely one has to admit that in the Venezuelan situation it is even worse as the coup leaders such as the US deliberately through sanctions and otherwise made the situation worse.

Is a coup possible in the US?

The idea of a coup in the US may seem like complete fantasy but actually given certain conditions quite a substantial minority of Americans would support a coup. A recent article notes: In 2017, about 25 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans said they favored a military intervention if the country faced rampant crime or corruption.

Another article about a possible military coup in the US concludes: "Experts who study coups don't think one is in the cards for the US. Natasha Ezrow, a senior lecturer on government at the UK's University of Essex and a commentator on authoritarianism, emphasized that "a coup is completely unlikely." Tom Ginsburg, a scholar of coups and professor of law at the University of Chicago, felt the same way as Ezrow—he published a paper to that effect earlier this month. But, he added, "We're at this moment where it's very good to be considering these things."

So at least the possibility of a US coup is worth discussing and if there were such a coup it would have significant report if it was for corruption. With a very poor economic situation it would no doubt receive much more. Perhaps Americans would be against any foreign intervention but perhaps not if the circumstances were dire enough.

The failure of Maduro to arrest Guaido

A tweet by me in response to McAdams:

If Maduro had acted as most any other leader would against a person clearly committing treason there probably would be a civil war now. Guaido should be in jail awaiting trial. Ken Hanly added,

Daniel McAdams@DanielLMcAdams

Scenario playing out. Guaido clearly happy to green-light an American invasion of Venezuela. Need a few false flags - a massacre at an anti-Maduro rally would suffice. Guaido then formally requests US assistance as the "legitimate" head of Venezuelan government. Washington acts. https://twitter.com/venanalysis/status/1092083193187102720 …

2:14 PM - 3 Feb 2019

Can you imagine in any country in the world if an opposition leader announced they were the president and the existing president and his or her government was illegitimate that the actual president would allow the leader of the attempted coup roam free, lead demonstrations, and give interviews to foreign media? Yet the global press for the most part sees this as quite normal and get upset when any move against Guaido is taken such as forbidding him from leaving the country or freezing his bank accounts. They even fail to see this as an anomaly.

Maduro is leery of taking any steps that could lead to more intervention and a civil war. He is trying to avoid a civil war. Meanwhile the US says the time for dialogue is over. The only peaceful means out seems to be surrender. DW, a prominent German news source, is one of the very few outlets that even discusses the issue. DW believes that Maduro is fearful of what the US will do if he arrests Guaido and charges him as shown on the appended video.

Previously published in Digital Journal