Iraq's Kurdish Autonomous Region to vote on independence on September 25th

Top government officials and political parties in the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq have agreed that there will be a referendum on independence on September 25th this year.

The date was set at a meeting in Irbil chaired by the President of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) Massoud Barzani. A statement was issued saying that the referendum would be held in the three provinces that make up the region but also "areas of Kurdistan outside the region's administration" The central government has urged the KRG not to hold the referendum. Neighboring countries such as Iran, Turkey and Syria all with Kurdish minority populations have all opposed a referendum as has the US.

After the announcement the US State Department expressed concern about the vote saying there were more urgent priorities in Iraq than the independence of the Kurdish people. The department claimed that the vote risked being a distraction from the war against the Islamic State. However, by September the IS may be close to defeat in Iraq. In spite of the support given to Kurdish forces in the fight against the IS both in Iraq and Syria, the US has long supported a unified Iraq and opposed secession. However, the US did say the Kurds did have legitimate expectations meaning perhaps that they might support some further autonomy.

In April, a senior Kurdish official Hoshyar Zebari said that a "yes" vote did not necessarily mean independence would be declared but that it would held the KRG negotiate the best deal with the central government. In driving the IS out of some regions, the Kurdish Peshmerga have taken control of some disputed regions. This includes the oil rich city of Kirkuk and region, Makhmour, Khanigan, and Sinjar. These are all regions where voting on independence will take place in September. This is bound to produce anger in Baghdad.

In April, PM of Iraq Haider al-Abadi had said: "The desire of our Kurdish brothers to create a country of their own is their right... and nobody has the right to deter them. But holding a referendum at this time is not right as the war [against IS] still rages, the region's situation is not suitable, and some neighbouring countries believe this move poses a threat to the nation's security themselves."

The governor of Kirkuk Naimadin Karim called the decision to hold the referendum important. Baghdad considers his province 'disputed territory'. Karim said that the vote will eventually lead to declaring independence. Kurdish PM Barzani said on Monday that times had changed and that there was no longer a term such as "disputed territory" in their dictionary. Since Kurdish peshmerga now control the Kirkuk and other territories taken from the IS, it seems they will be unwilling to return them to Baghdad's jurisdiction. Karim said: “Referendum will certainly be held to walk towards independence and eventually achieving independence. I am sure the people of Kirkuk will support and vote for it, not only Kurds, but also Arabs and Turkmen." Kirkuk is a multi-ethnic city with Turkmen and Arabs as well as Kurds. It remains to be seen whether the referendum will result in ethnic tensions. Certainly there will be objections from Baghdad. Turkey has already voiced its disapproval of the referendum.

Kurds increase their power to bargain with Iraqi central government

The advance of the Islamic State into several areas in northern and western Iraq has led to the strengthening of the Kurdish Regional Government in its conflicts with the Iraqi central government.

As the Islamic State mounted its offensive in Iraq in June and Iraqi forces fled, the Kurdish peshmerga occupied Kirkuk and the surrounding oil rich area claiming that the move was to defend Kirkuk from IS. However,  the Kurds are claiming the city and surrounding area as part of the Kurdish Regional government and not of the central government controlled areas as it was before the IS advance.

 While western press reports concentrate on the threat of the Islamic State and the battle against it the continuing conflict between the Kurds and the central government has very much faded into the background. While there is some military cooperation in the fight against the Islamic State, the conflict between the Kurds and Baghdad continues. For example, Baghdad has withheld budget payments to the KRG needed to pay Kurdish government employees leaving a shortfall of billions.

 Another factor that is tipping the political balance in favor of the Kurds is the flow of weapons from abroad to the Kurdish peshmerga. Ironically among the first to send weapons to the Kurds were the Iranians even though they have been a strong supporter of the Shia-dominated central government. Apparently, they did it through the central government but obviously made sure that the Kurds got them. The US has been reluctant to directly provide arms for the Kurds and have done so only to a limited extent. 

The Kurds are complaining that the US is not providing the heavy weapons they need. Karwan Zebari, director of U.S. congressional affairs for the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), told Fox News:"To this point, we have only received light arms, nothing effective against ISIS militants. We need effective equipment to go on the offensive. We need to be going after them.” A US Defense Dept. official told Fox news: “The Department of Defense has not provided direct arms to the Kurds and has no plans to do so in the future."

 Other countries have been less cautious about going through Baghdad. Germany is planning to directly provide the Kurds with advanced weapons, including anti-tank missiles. The UK announced that it has provided arms directly to the Kurds. The US Defense Secretary Hagel announced that seven countries have pledged to provide weapons and equipment to Kurdistan including Canada. No doubt many countries hope to curry favor with the Kurds so that they may have access to the rich oil resources of Iraqi Kurdistan should it become independent or gains more control over its natural resources.

 Kurdish leaders have agreed to postpone plans for a proposed referendum on independence. This may have been a result of US pressure or perhaps it is simply a tactical move to concentrate on fighting the Islamic State and gaining control of more territory in the near future. Fuad Hussein chief of staff for Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani said: “We now have a priority: to clean the area of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). ISIS must not remain our neighbour. When you have this priority, some other priorities will be delayed.” The Kurds are anxious that a new central government be formed in Baghdad since otherwise Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would stay on. 

 However they have four major demands including resolution of the status of Kirkuk and the surrounding area. They also want the moratorium on direct sales of Kurdish oil to be lifted for three months. Kurds would be allowed to export up to 140,000 barrels a day. Subsequently there would be negotiations for a permanent agreement on Kurdish exports of oil. Finally the Iraqi central government must pay the blocked salaries of KRG government employees. The Peshmerga forces would be recognized as part of Iraqi national defense forces entitled to modern equipment and weapons. The Kurds would be granted complete control of their own airspace. If these demands are not met no doubt the Kurds will seek complete independence for their region.

Iraq: Tension rises between Prime Minister Maliki and Sunni politicians

The prime minister Nouri al-Maliki has accused his own Sunni vice-president Tareq al-Hashemi of plotting to assassinate him. He claims that al-Hashemi paid his own bodyguards to commit terrorist attacks and that they have confessed to these acts. An order has been made for al-Hashemi's arrest.

 Al-Hashemi has taken refuge in Kurdistan in northern Iraq. He says that he will only stand trial there not in Baghdad. Al-Maliki has been harassing other Sunni politicians as well. Al-Hashemi claims the charges against him are politically motivated. Massoud Barzani the president of the Kurdistan regional government has called on Iraqi politicians to hold a summit meeting to discuss al-Maliki''s recent moves against Sunni politicians.

The arrest warrant is viewed with great suspicion by many politicians including Barzani who has for years often disagreed with al-Maliki. Even the Iraqi president Talabani was critical of the warrant together with the speaker of parliament. Violence is increasing as the sectarian tensions rise as well.

The U.S. is watching events with concern as all U.S. troops are now out of the country. Some Republicans have been critical of Obama for withdrawing all U.S. troops. However, the agreement for keeping forces in Iraq expires the end of this year and the Iraqi government refused to allow any troops to stay at least without being subject to Iraqi law. Apparently, the Republicans must think that the U.S. could just stay anyway! For more see this article and also here.