Arias talks fail Zelaya to return to Honduras next weekend.

This is from my post to Allvoices. --with additional commentary.


These talks were set up only because of the insistence of the U.S. as a way of defusing the situation but the U.S. did not reckon on the intransigence of the coup leaders. Although Zelaya sounded just as uncompromising it was he who accepted Arias proposals for a government of reconciliation. But the coup will not let Zelaya resume the presidency under any conditions it seems. The coup leaders know that the U.S. is a toothless tiger when it comes to actually moving against a group that it had long supported and with whom it still has strong military ties. While in the short term the coup government will suffer international isolation in the longer term there will be presidential elections held under the auspices of the coup government and then things will return to normal with the elite ruling and the military watchful in the wings.
Zelaya is making plans to return next weekend. There are already organised demonstrations regularly and there will be more next week. Of course unless a few dozen people get shot the mainstream media will not bother covering them because they are not in Iran!

The possibility of increased violence is now much increased and should Zelaya carry out his pledge to return to Nicaragua the likely alternative is to be violence. The only alternative left to the Zelaya supporters it would seem is armed struggle. Probably Nicaragua would support such a struggle and also Venezuela at least. The United States will not. Obama is already in hot water among many for supporting Zelaya. Many in the US support the coup line that the military was simply supporting the constitution and the coup lobbyists are openly working in Washington. Many have good connections to the Democratic party and especially Hilary Clinton.
There are recent articles in PressTV (Iran) and Yahoonews.

Stalemate but head of UN general assembly says solution is near.

It is hard to see why déScoto is optimistic that there will be a solution when the two sides are still completely at loggerheads. No doubt there will be tremendous pressure on Zelaya to agree to go back with reduced powers and stay as a lame duck powerless president until new elections. Of course there will be no punishment of the coup leaders except that they may have to give up on prosecuthing Zelaya. So far they have been unwilling to do that except for "political" crimes.
Note that Honduras depends upon remittances from Hondurans in the US for 25 per cent of its income.

This is from aljazeera.

Honduras talks hit stalemate
Talks aimed at ending a political crisis in Honduras have failed to reach a resolution, after the two individuals claiming the presidency of the country left the negotiations.
Delegates for Roberto Micheletti, the military-backed interim president, and Manuel Zelaya, the deposed elected president, failed to reach a breakthrough in talks mediated by Oscar Arias, Costa Rica's president.
Micheletti's team of advisers left the Costa Rican capital San Jose on Friday evening and headed back to Honduras, bringing an end to the negotiations for the time being.
.........................
The president of the United Nations General Assembly said a solution to the crisis was close despite the apparent failure of the Arias-brokered talks.
"I hear we may be very close to a solution for the restitution of President Zelaya," Miguel d'Escoto said on Friday.
"I feel confident that a solution will be arrived at very soon. By soon I mean very few days. A week is soon, but I believe sooner."
Country facts
Second largest country in Central America Population of 7.2 million Second poorest country in the region Economy forecast to grow less than two per cent this year Relies on money from Hondurans in the US for more than 25 per cent of its gross domestic product Former Spanish colony gained independence in 1821
........The US has suspended military ties with Tegucigalpa in the wake of the crisis and has said that it could cut off about $200m in aid.
The World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank have also suspended credit to the country.
Gabriela Nunez, the finance minister in the interim government in Honduras, said on Friday that the suspension of Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank loans would cost the country $200m in 2009.
Zelaya's leftist allies in South America have also made life uncomfortable for Micheletti since the coup.
Venezuela has suspended its oil deliveries to Honduras, while Nicaragua denied Micheletti permission to fly through its airspace for the Costa Rica meeting.
Zelaya was removed from power as he was about to press ahead with a non-binding referendum on constitution change.
Congress and the courts had declared the move to hold the public vote illegal, accusing Zelaya of trying to change the charter to enable him to run for a second term in office.