I wonder how "objective" the polling organisations are when they seem to vary a considerable amount. Overall the polls would indicate a clear Labor victory. Rudd is not all that different in many policies although he will withdraw troops from Iraq. The Australian labor party has swung quite far to the right. Almost every social democratic and labor party has opted for some variation of the third way so that there really is no sharp choice between right and left. This should be called the law of the exclusive middle!
Two out of three polls back a Labor win
Friday Nov 23 09:43 AEDT
Two out of three polls released on the eve of the federal election predict a clear win for Labor, but a third shows John Howard still in with a chance.
The latest Galaxy poll has Prime Minister John Howard in with a chance, while a Nielsen poll has the coalition facing annihilation, and a Morgan poll says the ALP will win in a close contest despite a swing towards the coalition.
The telephone poll conducted by Roy Morgan research on November 21 and 22 showed that on a two-party preferred, support for the coalition had risen one point to 45.5 per cent, while support for the ALP had dropped one point to 54.5 per cent.
This represented a swing of 7.2 points to the ALP since the 2004 Federal election, spokesman Gary Morgan said.
However, in 22 key coalition marginal seats, where Labor needed to grabbed 16 seats to win government, the swing was less at 5.2 points to the ALP, he said.
Sixty-three per cent of voters polled thought the ALP would win Saturday's federal election, compared to 22.5 per cent who backed the coalition to win, while 14.5 per cent were undecided.
"With a day to go, the ALP is set to win the federal election," Mr Morgan said.
"Marginal seat polling in 22 coalition seats finds the ALP three per cent ahead: 51.5 per cent compared to (the coalition's) 48.5 per cent," he said.
"This suggests an ALP gain of between 14 and 20 seats even with the likelihood of Labor losing a seat in Western Australia."
The latest Galaxy poll of 1,200 voters was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday for News Ltd - before the revelations of a bogus leaflet scandal that threatens to hand a key marginal Sydney seat to Labor.
It found the coalition stands at 48 per cent with Labor on 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, with both parties even in the primary vote stakes on 42.5 per cent.
But the poll conflicts with the Nielsen poll of 2,071 voters taken between Monday and Wednesday for Fairfax's Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers.
It found Labor leads the primary vote by 48 per cent to 40 per cent, giving it a two-party preferred lead of 57 per cent to 43 per cent.
The figures represent a 10-point swing to Labor since the 2004 election, more than twice what Labor needs to win the 16 seats it must pick up to form government.
According to the Galaxy poll, 62 per cent of voters expect a Labor victory compared to 25 per cent who expect the coalition to win.
Labor leader Kevin Rudd was preferred prime minister on 51 per cent of the vote, compared to Mr Howard on 43 per cent.
Mr Rudd was also judged to have been the best on the campaign trail by 57 per cent of voters, with just a 27 per cent support for Mr Howard.
The poll also found half of voters questioned said they were better off than three years ago, 29 per cent said they were worse off and 44 per cent said they were under financial stress.
©AAP 2007
Showing posts with label Australian election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australian election. Show all posts
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Australian Election: Labor to win over Howard?
This is from the Times of India. Howard was a big supporter of Bush. Labor will sign the Kyoto agreement as opposed to Howard. The election is Nov. 24.
Poll shows Australian PM heading for defeat
17 Nov 2007,
SYDNEY: Prime Minister John Howard will enter the final week of Australia's election campaign well behind his opposition rival Kevin Rudd, according to an opinion poll published on Saturday.
A news poll published in the Australian newspaper covering the 18 most marginal seats held by Howard's conservative government showed Rudd's centre-left Labour party ahead 54 percent to 46.
The newspaper said if the results of the poll were duplicated in next Saturday's election, Labour would win between 18 and 25 seats, comfortably ahead of the 16 it needs to gain power.
It said one of the seats to fall to Labour under such a scenario would be Howard's own electorate of Bennelong in Sydney's suburbs.
Labour's 54-46 lead in the poll of 3,600 voters is identical to the findings of a separate survey published on Friday in the Sydney Morning Herald.
The Australian newspaper said in an editorial that it appeared Howard's Liberal-National coalition was headed for defeat on November 24 after almost 12 years in office.
"After four terms, the coalition appears to have run out of luck and lost the attention of voters," it said.
But Howard told the newspaper that he did not detect a "visceral hostility" towards him or his government among the public.
"I think there are a lot of people who are quite undecided and I think this election is anybody's at this present time, that's my strong view," he said.
Poll shows Australian PM heading for defeat
17 Nov 2007,
SYDNEY: Prime Minister John Howard will enter the final week of Australia's election campaign well behind his opposition rival Kevin Rudd, according to an opinion poll published on Saturday.
A news poll published in the Australian newspaper covering the 18 most marginal seats held by Howard's conservative government showed Rudd's centre-left Labour party ahead 54 percent to 46.
The newspaper said if the results of the poll were duplicated in next Saturday's election, Labour would win between 18 and 25 seats, comfortably ahead of the 16 it needs to gain power.
It said one of the seats to fall to Labour under such a scenario would be Howard's own electorate of Bennelong in Sydney's suburbs.
Labour's 54-46 lead in the poll of 3,600 voters is identical to the findings of a separate survey published on Friday in the Sydney Morning Herald.
The Australian newspaper said in an editorial that it appeared Howard's Liberal-National coalition was headed for defeat on November 24 after almost 12 years in office.
"After four terms, the coalition appears to have run out of luck and lost the attention of voters," it said.
But Howard told the newspaper that he did not detect a "visceral hostility" towards him or his government among the public.
"I think there are a lot of people who are quite undecided and I think this election is anybody's at this present time, that's my strong view," he said.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Howard splurges to close poll gap.
It seems that worldwide regardless of party the same strategy of buying votes with goodies is favored when a ruling party is in difficulty. Fortunately, it doesn't always work and probably will not save Howard from being defeated by his Labor opponent.
Prime Minister splurges to close poll gap
Michelle Grattan, Brisbane
November 13, 2007
THE Howard Government has promised a rebate for the education costs — including private school fees — of all Australian children, in a $9.4 billion bid for re-election as it desperately tries to close the persisting gulf in the opinion polls.
The rebate of up to $800 for secondary students and $400 for primary school children, including those in their preschool year, would be available to all parents regardless of their income.
Worth $6.3 billion over four years and starting in January, it would cover costs including uniforms, camps and excursions, tuition fees, laptops, textbooks, stationery, extra-curricular music and sports activities.
More than 2.1 million families would be able to claim, for more than 3.6 million children.
The scheme is a contrast to Labor's more modest $2.3 billion rebate plan, which covers laptop computers, other IT equipment and textbooks, but not private school fees.
The education rebate was the biggest spending item in a Coalition package also offering tax breaks, worth about $1.6 billion over four years, to encourage saving for first homes, $652 million for enhanced child care and $158 million to support carers.
In a speech to a packed audience of Liberal supporters in Brisbane lasting just over 42 minutes, Mr Howard's pledges amounted to spending at a rate of $3.7 million a second.
The big-spending launch — bringing total Coalition promises to more than $60 billion — came despite the latest warning from the Reserve Bank that excessive spending in the economy is fuelling inflation and increasing the risk of further interest rate rises.
Delivering what will be — win or lose — his last campaign launch speech, Mr Howard made a personal pitch on "why I want to be prime minister of this country again", listing reasons including building an even stronger Australia and pursuing full employment.
He warned against the "huge risk" of wall-to-wall Labor governments in Canberra and the states, and said Australia's prosperity would be "seriously compromised" if the economy was badly managed.
Condemning Labor as "hollow", he described Mr Rudd as "a man whose core beliefs are obscure and unknown to the Australian public and perhaps to … himself".
Mr Rudd hit back, saying Mr Howard was increasingly stuck in the past, and that his campaign launch had failed to lay out a positive plan for Australia.
Mr Howard also came under fire from others for his latest pledges, with claims that both the housing plan and the education rebates involved excessive handouts to the wealthy.
But independent school groups backed the education rebate plan, and Labor stopped short of criticising its coverage of private school fees.
Like the education rebates, the Government's first-home savings scheme had a strong element of "me-tooism" as Mr Howard tries to counter Labor in areas it has claimed as its own.
Starting in the 2008-09 financial year, it would allow contributions up to $1000 a year to the home-saver accounts to be tax deductible. Contribution limits would be indexed annually, and all interest and earnings would be tax free.
A home savings account for children would be available for people under 18 to which parents, grandparents and the account holder could contribute up to a combined total of $1000 a year. Contributions would be tax deductible and the savings could be used to buy a first home once the account holder turned 18.
Adults between 18 and 39 would be able to set up tax-free home savings accounts, to which up to $10,000 annually could be contributed. Account holders would be able to claim a tax deduction of up to $1000 for their contributions. Among other measures to address the housing affordability crisis, the Government would remove capital gains tax for people who share equity in a family member's first home.
Mr Howard also announced measures to relieve the supply problems of housing affordability, including expediting the disposal of 961 hectares of Commonwealth land in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the ACT.
The Government would give $500 million over three years to help fund community infrastructure — including community halls, libraries and sporting grounds — for new housing developments and urban consolidation.
Countering Labor's initiatives on child care, Mr Howard said a re-elected Coalition government would cut the amount that parents have to pay upfront each week by 30 per cent. It would pay the child care tax rebate directly to child care services so they could pass it onto parents at once. This would help about 500,000 families from April.
The Government would also provide capital funding of up to $1 million to local governments to build or extend up to 35 child care centres in parts of Australia where places are short.
The Government says its commitment to pay the rebate up-front will save $23.25 a week for a family on $35,000 with one child in full time care. Families on $60,000 would save $37.40 a week.
Mr Rudd, during a visit to Townsville, blasted the speech as lacking a positive plan for the country, and intensified his attack over the proposed leadership transition from Mr Howard to Peter Costello, saying voters could not trust the Prime Minister to deliver on his promises because he will not serve a full term.
He said the key elements of the Liberal campaign launch failed to adequately address major policy challenges, and declared Labor had a better plan for working families.
With KATHARINE MURPHY
This story was found at: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/12/1194766590319.html
Prime Minister splurges to close poll gap
Michelle Grattan, Brisbane
November 13, 2007
THE Howard Government has promised a rebate for the education costs — including private school fees — of all Australian children, in a $9.4 billion bid for re-election as it desperately tries to close the persisting gulf in the opinion polls.
The rebate of up to $800 for secondary students and $400 for primary school children, including those in their preschool year, would be available to all parents regardless of their income.
Worth $6.3 billion over four years and starting in January, it would cover costs including uniforms, camps and excursions, tuition fees, laptops, textbooks, stationery, extra-curricular music and sports activities.
More than 2.1 million families would be able to claim, for more than 3.6 million children.
The scheme is a contrast to Labor's more modest $2.3 billion rebate plan, which covers laptop computers, other IT equipment and textbooks, but not private school fees.
The education rebate was the biggest spending item in a Coalition package also offering tax breaks, worth about $1.6 billion over four years, to encourage saving for first homes, $652 million for enhanced child care and $158 million to support carers.
In a speech to a packed audience of Liberal supporters in Brisbane lasting just over 42 minutes, Mr Howard's pledges amounted to spending at a rate of $3.7 million a second.
The big-spending launch — bringing total Coalition promises to more than $60 billion — came despite the latest warning from the Reserve Bank that excessive spending in the economy is fuelling inflation and increasing the risk of further interest rate rises.
Delivering what will be — win or lose — his last campaign launch speech, Mr Howard made a personal pitch on "why I want to be prime minister of this country again", listing reasons including building an even stronger Australia and pursuing full employment.
He warned against the "huge risk" of wall-to-wall Labor governments in Canberra and the states, and said Australia's prosperity would be "seriously compromised" if the economy was badly managed.
Condemning Labor as "hollow", he described Mr Rudd as "a man whose core beliefs are obscure and unknown to the Australian public and perhaps to … himself".
Mr Rudd hit back, saying Mr Howard was increasingly stuck in the past, and that his campaign launch had failed to lay out a positive plan for Australia.
Mr Howard also came under fire from others for his latest pledges, with claims that both the housing plan and the education rebates involved excessive handouts to the wealthy.
But independent school groups backed the education rebate plan, and Labor stopped short of criticising its coverage of private school fees.
Like the education rebates, the Government's first-home savings scheme had a strong element of "me-tooism" as Mr Howard tries to counter Labor in areas it has claimed as its own.
Starting in the 2008-09 financial year, it would allow contributions up to $1000 a year to the home-saver accounts to be tax deductible. Contribution limits would be indexed annually, and all interest and earnings would be tax free.
A home savings account for children would be available for people under 18 to which parents, grandparents and the account holder could contribute up to a combined total of $1000 a year. Contributions would be tax deductible and the savings could be used to buy a first home once the account holder turned 18.
Adults between 18 and 39 would be able to set up tax-free home savings accounts, to which up to $10,000 annually could be contributed. Account holders would be able to claim a tax deduction of up to $1000 for their contributions. Among other measures to address the housing affordability crisis, the Government would remove capital gains tax for people who share equity in a family member's first home.
Mr Howard also announced measures to relieve the supply problems of housing affordability, including expediting the disposal of 961 hectares of Commonwealth land in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the ACT.
The Government would give $500 million over three years to help fund community infrastructure — including community halls, libraries and sporting grounds — for new housing developments and urban consolidation.
Countering Labor's initiatives on child care, Mr Howard said a re-elected Coalition government would cut the amount that parents have to pay upfront each week by 30 per cent. It would pay the child care tax rebate directly to child care services so they could pass it onto parents at once. This would help about 500,000 families from April.
The Government would also provide capital funding of up to $1 million to local governments to build or extend up to 35 child care centres in parts of Australia where places are short.
The Government says its commitment to pay the rebate up-front will save $23.25 a week for a family on $35,000 with one child in full time care. Families on $60,000 would save $37.40 a week.
Mr Rudd, during a visit to Townsville, blasted the speech as lacking a positive plan for the country, and intensified his attack over the proposed leadership transition from Mr Howard to Peter Costello, saying voters could not trust the Prime Minister to deliver on his promises because he will not serve a full term.
He said the key elements of the Liberal campaign launch failed to adequately address major policy challenges, and declared Labor had a better plan for working families.
With KATHARINE MURPHY
This story was found at: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/12/1194766590319.html
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Australia's Howard calls election for Nov. 24.
It looks as if Bush may lose one of his big buddies. Not to worry he still has Harper here in Canada and Sarkozy in France and to some extent Brown in the UK. The opposition will bring home Aussies from Iraq and sign Kyoto if they win.
Australia's veteran Prime Minister John Howard on Sunday called a
national
election for November 24, stressing experience over his Labor opponent
and
shrugging off polls that show he faces near-certain defeat.
Howard, 68, in power for 11 years but lagging well behind youthful
Labor leader
Kevin Rudd in opinion surveys, said that only he was able to lead
Australia
into the future and continue the country's current resource-driven
economic
boom.
"Love me or loath me the Australian people know where I stand on all
the major
issues of importance to their future," said Howard, who is danger of
losing in
his own Sydney-based seat.
Howard, Australia's second-longest serving leader, said the country was
enjoying remarkable prosperity, but promised voters the best years
could lie
ahead.
"But that won't happen automatically. This country does not need new
leadership, it does not need old leadership, it needs the right
leadership," he
said, unveiling what will likely become the conservatives' fighting
slogan.
But if Howard wins he has already said he will hand over the prime
ministership
to his deputy, Treasurer Peter Costello, some time during the next
term.
The election will determine the future of Canberra's military
contribution in
Iraq and climate change stance, with Labor promising to bring home
combat
troops and sign the Kyoto climate pact. But the poll will be fought and
won on
domestic issues.
GENERATIONAL CHANGE
Rudd, 50, has promised generational change to take the country into the
future,
including sweeping reforms to healthcare, education and controversial
labor
laws introduced by Howard.
"What I'm offering the Australian people is new leadership," Rudd said.
"Australia can't afford another three years of a government which has
already
had 11 years ... a government without fresh ideas for our nation's
future."
A newspaper opinion poll on Sunday gave Labor 59 percent of the overall
vote,
compared with the coalition government's 41 percent. But Labor needs to
pick up
an imposing 16 more seats in the 150-seat lower house to take power.
full:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071014/wl_nm/australia_politics_dc_5;_ylt=Agwb0SWTHEwxA7rGaJGZHCFkMfQI
Australia's veteran Prime Minister John Howard on Sunday called a
national
election for November 24, stressing experience over his Labor opponent
and
shrugging off polls that show he faces near-certain defeat.
Howard, 68, in power for 11 years but lagging well behind youthful
Labor leader
Kevin Rudd in opinion surveys, said that only he was able to lead
Australia
into the future and continue the country's current resource-driven
economic
boom.
"Love me or loath me the Australian people know where I stand on all
the major
issues of importance to their future," said Howard, who is danger of
losing in
his own Sydney-based seat.
Howard, Australia's second-longest serving leader, said the country was
enjoying remarkable prosperity, but promised voters the best years
could lie
ahead.
"But that won't happen automatically. This country does not need new
leadership, it does not need old leadership, it needs the right
leadership," he
said, unveiling what will likely become the conservatives' fighting
slogan.
But if Howard wins he has already said he will hand over the prime
ministership
to his deputy, Treasurer Peter Costello, some time during the next
term.
The election will determine the future of Canberra's military
contribution in
Iraq and climate change stance, with Labor promising to bring home
combat
troops and sign the Kyoto climate pact. But the poll will be fought and
won on
domestic issues.
GENERATIONAL CHANGE
Rudd, 50, has promised generational change to take the country into the
future,
including sweeping reforms to healthcare, education and controversial
labor
laws introduced by Howard.
"What I'm offering the Australian people is new leadership," Rudd said.
"Australia can't afford another three years of a government which has
already
had 11 years ... a government without fresh ideas for our nation's
future."
A newspaper opinion poll on Sunday gave Labor 59 percent of the overall
vote,
compared with the coalition government's 41 percent. But Labor needs to
pick up
an imposing 16 more seats in the 150-seat lower house to take power.
full:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071014/wl_nm/australia_politics_dc_5;_ylt=Agwb0SWTHEwxA7rGaJGZHCFkMfQI
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