European think tank doubts peace with MILF under Arroyo regime.

This is from the Tribune.

The Arroyo govt. seems to have botched things so badly that one wonders whether it was ever bargaining in good faith. The govt. was supposed to sign a memorandum of agreement but never did so. Anyway the Supreme Court found the agreement unconstitutional and no matter who gets into power it is going to be a challenge to arrive at an agreement that is consistent with the constitution. Also, Arroyo did not bother to consult non-Muslims in the areas the would come under Moro control.
The failure of the agreement led several MILF commanders to begin attacks and this in turn led Arroyo to demand they be turned over to government authorities for punishment. This just made matters worse.
Peace seems to be a long way off but at the article says at least there can be some progress äround the edges" even though at this stage no overarching agreement.



European think tank doubts peace with MILF under GMA
By Michaela P. del Callar
02/18/2009
A prominent Brussels-based think tank has ruled out the prospect of any peace settlement with the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) under the Arroyo government as her officials called on Muslim separatist rebels to return to the negotiating table to end six months of large-scale hostilities.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its Feb. 16 policy report on the Philippines that the Arroyo administration lacked political will and sincerity in forging an accord that would end decades-old Muslim rebellion in Mindanao.
“Certainly, no settlement is likely during the remaining tenure of President Arroyo, the two sides are too far apart, the potential spoilers too numerous, and the political will too weak. The best that can be hoped for is progress around the edges,” the ICG said.
Talks between the government and the MILF collapsed in August 2008 after the failed signing of an expanded Muslim homeland agreement.
But Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Avelino Razon Jr. said the government will work toward putting “confidence-building measures” on the ground, including reactivating a joint task force that goes after criminals and terrorists.
“There’s no alternative to peace, that is why I’m calling (on) the MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) leadership to go back to
the negotiating table to resolve our differences peacefully,” Razon said in a statement.
After the accord was aborted, rogue MILF rebels led by its three commanders forcibly occupied mostly Christian southern Mindanao towns, killed civilians, looted and burned their homes. More than 300,000 civilians were rendered homeless.
Late last year, the government offered to sign a Memorandum of Agreement on ancestral domain (MoA-AD) with the MILF in Malaysia that would have practically created a separate Muslim state but the Supreme Court intervened and ordered a suspension in the signing of the agreement.
After the SC blocked proposed land deal was blocked, at least three MILF commanders led attacks across several towns and provinces on Mindanao island.
President Arroyo subsequently cut off peace talks, and demanded that the MILF surrender two of its commanders. That demand was rejected by the MILF.
Last Monday, the government said 124 people, mostly children, had also died in squalid evacuation camps.
The ICG noted that even if Manila has expressed willingness to return to the negotiating panel, “none of the political obstacles that killed the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain have been removed.”
It also cited the government’s failure to consult non-Muslim groups in Mindanao with no desire to come under Moro control so they could raise their concerns on the issue and feed it into the negotiations for the agreement.
ICG also scored the Arroyo government for not making any efforts to defend the agreement reached by its own peace panel.
The group also believes that the task of reaching a formal agreement is “daunting.”
ICG stressed that negotiations are unlikely to move forward because none from the government or even its critics, referring to contenders for the 2010 presidential elections, seem to consider peace process a priority.
“Peace is not around the corner in Mindanao,” the ICG said. “No one should have illusions that the government’s move toward re-establishing its negotiating team presages a new political will to address the complex issues that scuttled the MoA.”
“But if a settlement seems unlikely during the Arroyo administration, there is still much to be done now that might help make a future peace stronger,” it added.
In the meantime, the ICG said all parties should concentrate on finding a formula for ending the military operations in Mindanao should both sides finally decide to resume talks.
“If a negotiated peace agreement, for the moment at least, is not possible, the focus , should be instead on a solution that will address the issue of renegade commanders, halt displacement and allow hundreds of thousands to return home,” the ICG said.
Recently, the MILF reported that it did not disband its peace panel and ready to resume the stalled peace talks but wants many questions answered related to the botched MoA-AD.
Khaled Musa, deputy chairman of the MILF committee on information, said that the MILF questions if left unanswered would lead to the repeat of the fiasco in Malaysia on Aug.5, 2008 where the MoA-AD was not signed by the Philippine Government on the very eve of the signing ceremony.