Philippine peso, stocks slide this year...

This is from Bloomberg.

As with most currencies except the US dollar and the Yen most are lower including the Canadian dollar. The stock market too shares in the global meltdown of stocks.


Philippine Peso, Stocks Slide in Year as Slump Hurts Exports

By Clarissa Batino
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippine peso headed for its worst year since 2000 and stocks had their biggest annual loss in at least two decades on signs the global slowdown is hurting sales of the nation’s exports.
The peso fell for a fourth day after a government report showed imports contracted for the first time in 17 months in October, signaling exports may also shrink. The central bank yesterday predicted that growth in overseas shipments will halve this year, which would widen the trade deficit to $13.1 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations.
“The drop in trade flows is a bad sign that the economy will be slowing pretty rapidly,” said Simon Wong, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. “The global downturn puts pressure on Asian economies and currencies, including the peso.”
The currency lost 0.4 percent to 47.625 per dollar as of 2:25 p.m. in Manila, according to Tullett Prebon Plc. It’s poised for a 13.4 percent loss this year, the most since shortly before former President Joseph Estrada was ousted in a revolt. South Korea’s won slid 28.5 percent this year.
Local markets will be closed for Christmas holidays starting tomorrow through Jan. 2 and trading resumes Jan. 5.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index slumped 48 percent this year to 1,872.85, the biggest annual drop since Bloomberg started tracking the data in 1988.
Ten-year bond yields, which move opposite to prices, rose 85 basis points this year, the most since 2004. Philippine government securities handed investors a return of 1.5 percent in 2008, the least among the 10 local-currency debt markets, according to indexes compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc.
Slowing Growth
Overseas sales account for a third of the $144 billion economy. The Philippines imports electronics components and exports mobile-phone chips and computer parts.
Gross domestic product may expand 0.7 percent next year, compared with an estimated 3.8 percent this year, Wong said, citing contractions in exports and remittances in 2009. The government expects growth of as little as 4.1 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2009, versus last year’s three-decade high of 7.2 percent.
Imports slipped 11.1 percent to $4.58 billion in October after climbing 2.5 percent in September, the National Statistics Office said in Manila. Exports dropped 14.9 percent in October, the most in seven years, the agency said earlier this month.
Rate Cuts
The World Bank expects global trade to shrink in 2009 for the first time in more than 25 years, threatening export-reliant economies in Asia. The Philippines last week cut interest rates to support growth as the global slump weakened demand for Intel Corp.’s computer chips and other electronics goods, which account for two-thirds of the nation’s overseas sales.
The peso may weaken to around 50 per dollar next year but will probably recover to 46 by the end of 2009, Wong said.
“To the extent that all major economies would contract and demand would drop in 2009, then the Philippines and the region are vulnerable,” Wong said.
Slowing growth and receding inflation may allow the central bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in each of the first two quarters, said the Standard Chartered economist, who was one of four who correctly predicted Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ half-point rate cut last week.
Bangko Sentral reduced its overnight borrowing rate to 5.5 percent on Dec. 18, the first cut in 11 months. Governor Amando Tetangco this week said he has “greater latitude to ease policy rates,” supporting gains in bonds.
The yield on the 8.875 percent note maturing in November 2018 dropped 28 basis points to 7.44 percent today, the lowest since Sept. 15, according to the 11:15 a.m. fixing at Philippine Dealing & Exchange Corp. The price gained 2, or 200 pesos per 10,000 pesos face amount, to 109.93. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Ten-year bonds yielded 6.58 percent at the end of last year. The main stock index gained 0.6 percent as of the noon close of trading in Manila.
To contact the reporter on this story: Clarissa Batino in Manila at cbatino@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: December 24, 2008 01:26 EST
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