Thursday, November 27, 2008

SOFA delay in Iraq

This is from antiwar.com
Even if there were a referendum it could take place at earliest next July and if it rejected the SOFA the US would still have a year to get out of Iraq! Nothing is mentioned here about the provisions re oil profits that give US control over those in effect. Anyway the whole agreement is so studded with minefields that it is not even translated into English for general consumption and the US is already noting loopholes: from Yahoonews.
But three officials in Washington said the administration of US President George W. Bush has withheld the official English translation of the agreement to suppress a public dispute with the Iraqis until after the parliamentary vote.
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the official English language text of the agreement was designated as "sensitive but unclassified."
"There are a number of areas in here where they have agreement on the same wording but different understandings about what the words mean," said one US official.
The White House National Security Council said it had held up the translation's release until the Iraqi parliament votes.......
In the event the SOFA is approved, the US could simply circumvent parts of the agreement, said officials.
For example, for the provision that bars the US from launching military operations into neighboring countries from Iraqi territory, the administration could cite another provision that allows parties to retain the right of self-defense -- such as pursuing groups that launch strikes on US targets from Syria or Iran.
The provision that appears to require the US to notify Iraqi officials in advance of any planned military operations and seek Iraqi approval for them could also be altered, said the officials.
Some US military figures find the provision especially troubling, although US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, head of the US Central Command David Petraeus and the top US commander in Iraq Raymond Odierno have all endorsed it.
"Telling the Iraqis in advance would be an invitation to an ambush," said one US official.
The Iraqi government and security forces are "thoroughly penetrated by the insurgents, the Iranians, the Sadrists (followers of anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al Sadr) and ordinary folks who just sell scraps of intelligence," he added.

Delay May Lead to Iraq Referendum on US Troops
Posted November 26, 2008
The Iraqi government continues to scramble to get ready for tomorrow’s talks on the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and tentatively the vote (though it has already been delayed twice this week). It is now being reported that the government has agreed on a demand by the a key Sunni bloc for a national referendum on the SOFA, to be held in July. They have reportedly rejected other demands for reforms however.
Assuming the referendum deal is sufficient to get the Sunni bloc’s support, the SOFA will likely pass easily over the remaining opposition. The United States does not appear to object to the referendum, but Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insists that the SOFA will still go into effect on January 1 regardless of the pending referendum.
Under the terms of the SOFA, Iraq can cancel the deal at any time, but would be required to give the United States a year of advanced notice before doing so. Assuming the SOFA indeed goes into force before the referendum the July 30, 2009 vote would not have any effect on the deal until late 2010.
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