Showing posts with label cord cutting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cord cutting. Show all posts

Saturday, April 14, 2018

US ad spending on TV declined in 2017 and will also drop in 2018

Even though the number of viewers watching TV has been declining for years, spending on TV ads had continued to grow until 2017. Last year is the first time since 2009 during the recession that spending on ads in the U.S. declined.

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Ad spending on U.S. TV
In 2017 ad spending on TV in the US dropped by 1.5 percent. It is projected to decline a further 0.5 percent in 2018 and another 1.0 percent in 2019 according to eMarketer. The company had predicted a small increase back last September but has had to revise that figure downward as the market changes.
In 2016 TV made up 37 percent of total U.S. advertising expenditure. In 2017 this had dropped to just 34 percent. In 2018 it is expected to drop further to just 32 percent.
In 2020 the Summer Olympics and the U.S. presidential election will see a slight recovery as TV ads grow by 0.5 percent to $69.52 billion that year.
In spite of the 0.5 percent drop predicted for this year a total of $69.87 billion will still be spent. However, the spending shrunk by about one billion last year according to eMarketer.
Reasons for the decline in TV advertising
Through 2018 and 2019 it is expected that there will be an overall loss of $1.05 billion. Cord cutting and over-the-top viewing such as with Netflix is contributing to the decline. As reported in a recent Digital Journal article the response to cord cutting has been often counterproductive, raising prices and increasing the number of ads.
Also relevant to the decline is the growth in digital advertising dominated by such sites as Google and Facebook. Ad growth in that area is expected to grow by almost 19 percent in 2019 to $107.3 billion.
Monica Peart, senior forecasting director for eMarketer said: “The shift of audiences to OTT viewing is changing the climate of the TV ad market. As ratings for TV programming continue to decline, advertiser spending will also continue to see declines, especially in years that do not boast major events such as presidential elections and Olympic games.”
OTT viewing
Wikipedia describes OTT viewing as follows:" Over the top (OTT) is a media distribution practice that allows a streaming content provider to sell audio, video, and other media services directly to the consumer over the internet via streaming media as a standalone product, bypassing telecommunications, cable or broadcast television service providers that traditionally act as a controller or distributor of such content."
Many OTT platforms are based on subscription and do not air advertising but some digital TV services do sell ads. Roku will surpass $293 million in ad revenue this year. Hulu's ad revenue is expected to grow by 13 percent this year to $1.12 bilion.
E-Marketer, senior analyst Paul Verna said: "Over-the-top platforms are growing in number and size, and many compete directly with pay TV by offering bundles of live channels at attractive price points. Consumers who want to cut or shave the cord now have a wealth of options that didn't exist a couple of years ago. And we expect the offerings to become even more robust as more players enter the market."
Cord-cutting continues as OTT views grow
The estimates by e-Marketer were increased substantially last July for cord-cutters from 2017 through to 2021. For this year the number of TV views will drop 0.2 percent to 297.7 million. The number of OTT views will grow by 2.7 percent and will reach 198.6 million. As shown on the appended video, digital advertising may soon surpass TV advertising.

Previously published in Digital Journal

Friday, March 23, 2018

More ads and price increases will not stop cord cutting of cable subscribers

During the last decade cable providers have been slowly losing subscribers as many customers cut the cord and use streaming video competitors such as Netflix and You Tube or Roku and many others.

Cable executives refuse to take the trend seriously
Often the trend is either ignored or its is regarded as not serious. The defections were to a considerable degree caused by the costs of subscriptions. Often subscribers paid for channel bundles that contained channels they did not want. Opting for streaming alternatives was attractive and much cheaper.
The response was to increase subscription prices and the number of ads to try to make up for lost revenue.
Those who cut the cord were not worth keeping
After ignoring the trend for several years and pretending it was not happening, the industry then explained that those who were cutting the cord were not worth having as subscribers anyway and the trend was an annoying fad and would soon stop. Those cutting the cord were not tech savvy young people as some assumed but poor older people.
An article in Techdirt describes the earlier reactions: "First, they pretended it wasn't happening at all, and that they had somehow "beat" the internet (based on a single anecdote of someone who had dropped cable, but gone back to it a year later). Then, when news came out of massive numbers of people dropping their cable TV plans, they said that they weren't really cord cutters, because they were only canceling service due to the down economy."
The extent of lost subscribers
The trend towards cutting the cord is accelerating rather than slowing down. The research firm MoffetNathason Research notes that during the fourth quarter of last year the pay TV sector lost 500,000 subscribers. Satellite providers were badly hit with Dish and Direct TV losing 268,000 subscribers between them just in three months of last year.
The 3.4 percent decline in pay TV customers was the highest rate since the trend began accelerating back in 2010. It was also up from the 2 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the one percent decrease in 2015.
The "cord never" group
A number of people, the "cord never" group, many of them Millennials grew up without ever subscribing to cable TV but watch Netflix or You Tube or use streaming devices such as Roku. Traditional TV is regarded as expensive and archaic. These people are also a significant reason the number of pay TV subscribers is declining. If they had subscribed the pay TV providers would have more subscribers.
Cable companies confident because of large base of subscribers still
There are still 83 million households that subscribe to traditional cable. This may give cable executives the false notion that they can milk their cash cow forever. However, as reported in a recent Digital Journal article 40 percent of present pay TV subscribers will have cut the cord by 2030.
Some companies are beginning to recognize the trend
A recent article at Motherboard goes into detail as to how cable companies reacted to the trend by increasing ads and subscription prices.
Some companies are finally coming to the conclusion they need less rather than more advertising. Fox is trying to reduce ad time to just two minutes per hour by 2020. Ed Davis a Fox executive said:“The two minutes per hour is a real target for Fox, and also our challenge for the industry. Creating a sustainable model for ad-supported storytelling will require us all to move.”
Comcast NBC Universal also claims it will reduce advertising by as much as 20 percent in commercial breaks, and by 10 percent in prime time programming. Yet Comcast is increasing prices for this year a move likely to lose it subscribers. Rather than face the fact that they need to compete with streaming services many cable companies are looking for new ways to raise revenue and put obstacles in the way of their streaming competitors. They might do better if they concentrate on offering a cheaper and better alternative product and accept the fact that their profit margins will be less.


Previously published in Digital Journal

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