Tsvangirai always had few options

This is from Al Jazeera.
This is an absolute disaster. In order not to appear to be interfering in another African nation's internal affairs other African countries and in particular South Africa have not put sufficient pressure on Mugabe to cause any difference. You would think that with all the problems it is having with refugees South Africa would take a more forceful stance. The U.S. was able to fund and support rebellion against the Sandinista government but with Mugabe it is all rhetoric. In any event it would be much more appropriate if African countries put more pressure on Mugabe. Mugabe uses anti-colonial rhetoric to justify his incompetence and his gifts to his incompetent cronies as well. The country has become a basket case. Talk about failed states!



UPDATED ON:Monday, June 23, 2008 13:57 Mecca time, 10:57 GMT

FOCUS: ANALYSIS
Tsvangirai always had few options
By Musaazi Namiti
Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says he pulled out of the June 27 poll after his supporters were beaten and intimidated in Harare GALLO/GETTY]
After winning Zimbabwe's first round of presidential elections - but failing to secure an outright majority - Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has pulled out of a run-off vote against the incumbent.
Tsvangirai, who had been given more than 50 per cent of the first-round vote by the MDC's tally but only officially won 47 per cent, cited violence against his supporters as a major reason for the withdrawal.
The opposition announcement came after thousands of police in riot gear and soldiers blockaded the site of the MDC's main campaign rally.
Had Tsvangirai originally chosen to boycott the June 27 run-off, he would have set the stage for Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the president, to win re-election by default.
Tsvangirai's supporters would also have viewed him as a coward and a let-down, Zimbabwean political analysts say.
But contesting the run-off, perhaps the second-best option, represented major hurdles - the MDC were always aware of the likelihood of intimidation and violence against people who voted for them in the first round.
Tsvangirai has been detained by police several times, and released without charge, during his election campaigning. Tendai Biti, the MDC's secretary-general, has also been arrested and is facing charges of treason, which carry a death sentence upon conviction.
Intimidation, beatings
Mugabe has sworn that his supporters will fight to keep him in power [AFP]Tsvangirai's supporters have not only been attacked and beaten but they have also been murdered for opposing Mugabe, according to the MDC, who have put the death toll at at least 80.
Local election monitors say some MDC supporters have been forcibly removed from their homes, further hindering their abilities to vote; scores more have been hospitalised with severe injuries.
Tsvangirai himself has been to see supporters in hospital who allegedly have been assaulted by security forces and supporters of Zanu-PF, the governing party headed by Mugabe.
For several weeks, the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), which deployed hundreds of observers across the country in the March 29 election, has released statements highlighting incidents of violence against MDC supporters and some of its observers.
But there were hopes that Tsvangirai would win the run-off in spite of a vow by Mugabe that the opposition would never come to power as long as he is alive.
Mugabe has also said that the country's war veterans are ready to fight to try to prevent the MDC from coming to power.
Economic factor
Economic travails could play into the hands of the MDC opposition [AFP]Political observers and analysts say Zimbabwe's deteriorating economic situation made the MDC a popular alternative to Mugabe.
"Mugabe could go on and try every trick in the book, but the sheer number of voters [for the MDC] may be hard to beat," Wilf Mbanga, the London-based editor of The Zimbabwean, a weekly printed in South Africa and sold in Zimbabwe, says.
Others say intimidation may work to the disadvantage of Mugabe.
"Intimidation could turn out to be counterproductive," Professor Tony Hawkins, who lectures at the University of Zimbabwe, told Al Jazeera.
"But chasing people from their homes will make it impossible for them to vote. If you’re chased away, you can't vote."
Mugabe's controversial land redistribution program - which began in 2000 and saw white farmers forced off their farms, some of which went to Mugabe cronies who have no knowledge on how to run them - has hampered food production and brought Zimbabwe to its knees.
In an attempt to stave off the crisis, the government has been printing money with planeloads of banknotes arriving in Harare, the capital, almost on a weekly basis, according to the UK's Sunday Times newspaper.
In depth
Q&A: Zimbabwe'selection crisisThis has resulted in runaway inflation, which stood at 165,000 per cent in February; Zimbabwe has possibly the largest number of millionaires in Africa, but they can't even afford basic commodities.
The Zimbabwean dollar is almost worthless. A one million-dollar bill can only buy a few items in supermarkets - if the customer carrying it is lucky to find goods on the shelves.
Unemployment among the country's 13 million people is said to be around 80 per cent, and hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans have had to seek economic refuge in neighbouring South Africa, Botswana and Mozambique.
They can return home if Tsvangirai one day takes power and sorts out the economic mess, but the former trade union leader has several hurdles yet.
Source:
Al Jazeera

Opposition considers pulling out of Zimbabwe vote.

Given the conditions the opposition is facing and the fact that the army and police have both said that they will not support an opposition victory, pulling out seems a prudent action. Only some type of insurgency will overthrow Mugabe it seems unless Mugabe himself is assassinated and some other leader more amenable to negotiation with the opposition takes over. The problem seems to go beyond Mugabe himself though and relate to his party, the army, and the police.


Opposition considers pulling out of Zimbabwe vote
CRIS CHINAKA
Reuters
June 20, 2008 at 6:43 AM EDT
HARARE — Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is considering whether to pull out of the June 27 presidential run-off election amid fears it will be a charade, a spokesman said on Friday.
Some African nations, the United States and former colonial power Britain have said they do not believe the poll would be free and fair because of growing violence that the opposition blames on veteran President Robert Mugabe.
Mr. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change says at least 70 of its supporters have been killed since he defeated Mr. Mugabe in a March 29 vote but fell short of the outright majority needed to avoid a run-off, according to official figures.
“There is a huge avalanche of calls and pressure from supporters across the country, especially in the rural areas, not to accept to be participants in this charade,” MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa told Reuters.


Mr. Chamisa did not say when the party would decide on participating in the run-off.
Mr. Mugabe, 84, is fighting to cling onto power in the country he has ruled since independence in 1980. Once prosperous, its economy is now ruined and millions of Zimbabweans have fled the political and economic crisis to neighbouring states.
Mr. Mugabe blames the election bloodshed on the opposition and has threatened to arrest MDC leaders.
Mr. Tsvangirai has been detained five times while campaigning this month and his lieutenant, Tendai Biti, is being held in custody on treason and other charges. A conviction could carry a death sentence.
A magistrate on Friday ordered that Mr. Biti, the MDC's secretary-general, remain behind bars until July 7, rejecting the party's bid to have him released.
“I'm of the view that there's reasonable suspicion to believe the accused committed the said offences. Accordingly the application is dismissed,” Magistrate Mishrod Guvamombe said in a Harare court.
European Union leaders were set to issue a new threat of further sanctions on Zimbabwe on Friday, a draft summit statement showed. The EU has an arms embargo on Zimbabwe as well as visa bans and asset freezes on Mr. Mugabe and other officials.
The EU text, obtained by Reuters before the final working session of the two-day summit, said a free and fair election was critical to the resolution of a political and economic crisis in the former British colony.
But it stopped short of backing U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's assertion on Thursday that actions by Mr. Mugabe's government meant the run-off will not be free and fair.
EU leaders urged the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the African Union to deploy a significant number of election monitors and called for a swift and transparent vote count this time after lengthy delays in the first round.
“The European Council reiterates its readiness to take additional measures against those responsible for violence,” it said.
SADC, a group of 14 nations that includes Zimbabwe, is sending 380 monitors to Zimbabwe for the vote.
SADC ministers responsible for peace and security said on Thursday they doubted the election would be free after hearing initial reports from monitors, signalling growing impatience on the continent with Mugabe's authoritarian rule.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, mandated by the regional group to mediate in the crisis, visited Zimbabwe on Wednesday to discuss the crisis with Mugabe and the opposition.
Mr. Chamisa denied media reports that Mr. Mbeki had asked for the election to be cancelled in favour of a unity government.
“President Mbeki did not raise that issue. We raised the issue of electoral violence,” Mr. Chamisa said, declining to provide further details on the meeting. A spokesman for Mr. Mbeki also declined to comment on the matter.
The political impasse threatens to worsen the economic crisis in Zimbabwe, which is struggling with inflation over 165,000 per cent, 80 per cent unemployment and chronic food and fuel shortages.

Zimbabwe opposition reports 4 activists killed

This is from AP.

The army and police have said repeatedly that they will not accept an opposition victory. Mugabe is taking the runoff as an opportunity to show who is boss and try to terrify anyone who supports the opposition. The opposition would seem better off to go into exile or start an insurgency within Zimbabwe. Most of the international community will make a lot of noise but is unlikely to be able to stop Mugabe's actions against opponents. African leaders for the most part fear that if they intervene they will be seen as supporting Western imperialism against poor old Mugabe and this will give an excuse to Mugabe to crackdown even harder. I guess only the good die young is true. The evil old guys often go on forever. Of course that I am old shows that some good guys live to a ripe old age as well!



Zimbabwe opposition reports 4 activists killed
By ANGUS SHAW – 2 hours ago
HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — Four opposition party activists were killed and three homes firebombed near the capital as militants linked to the ruling party and army continued a campaign of intimidation ahead of a runoff election, the opposition said Thursday.
The activists were abducted Wednesday in the township of Chitungwiza, 15 miles south of the capital, and were assaulted with iron bars, clubs and guns, said Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for the Movement for Democratic Change.
The victims were forced onto trucks and taken away by militias chanting slogans of Mugabe's party, witnesses said. The bodies were found early Thursday, he said.
In a separate incident, three Chitungwiza opposition councilmen and their families fled their homes and escaped injury when their homes were set alight by gasoline bombs Wednesday night, he said.
Attempts to reach Zimbabwean police for confirmation of the firebombing were not immediately successful.
Chamisa said militants linked to Mugabe's party and army troops patrolled the township for several days, visiting houses at night and threatening occupants. The opposition says more than 60 of its activists have been killed in recent weeks.
Independent human rights activists have implicated police, soldiers and Mugabe party militants in the violence, thought to be aimed at ensuring victory over opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai.
Doctors at the main Parirenyatwa hospital in Harare said Thursday they admitted victims injured in assaults in several townships on the outskirts of Harare in recent days as political violence that has plagued rural areas spread to the city.
Residents of Harare's well-to-do suburbs reported gangs of militants forcing household domestic workers and family members to attend meetings known as a "pungwe," a colloquial term for night-long political indoctrination used by militants since the independence war that swept Mugabe to power in 1980.
Mugabe has threatened to return the country to war if he does not win the runoff June 27.
"They came and dragged my workers to the vlei," overgrown grassland nearby, Oliver Mberi said. "You'd think we are already at war." He said neighbors reported employees living in the dormitory townships fleeing violence in townships seen as opposition strongholds.
On Monday night, Abigail Chiroto, the wife of MDC mayor elect of Harare, was seized from her house in the suburb of Hatcliffe with her four-year-old son Ashley, family friends said Thursday. The friends, who did not want to be identified for fear of repercussions, said the two were taken to a nearby farming area where Chiroto's body was found Tuesday.
The boy, who was left at a nearby police station, told family members that he saw his mother being blindfolded and taken off into the bush. When Chiroto's body was found, she was still wearing a blindfold. Her body was identified Wednesday by her husband Emmanuel who was out of town at the time.
Mugabe "is behaving like a warlord," opposition party spokesman Nqobizitha Mlilo said. "This violence must stop."
The opposition claims Tsvangirai won the country's presidential elections, but official results said a runoff, to be held in just over a week, was needed because there was no outright majority win.
South African President Thabo Mbeki held talks with Tsvangirai on Wednesday and later with Mugabe amid increasing international concern that the June 27 runoff will not be free and fair.
Mbeki, who has steadfastly refused to publicly rebuke Mugabe, left late Wednesday without speaking to reporters. On Thursday, he canceled a press conference with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi "due to unforeseen circumstances," the foreign affairs department said in a statement.
Mbeki's spokesman Mukoni Ratshitanga said he had no comment on Wednesday's meetings in Harare because they were not conducting the negotiations in the media.
Mugabe spokesman George Charamba was quoted in Thursday's edition of the state newspaper The Herald as saying Mbeki came merely to review election preparations.
Mbeki says confrontation with Mugabe could backfire. But Mbeki's decision to spend his 66th birthday with the 84-year-old Zimbabwean autocrat underlined the immense pressure he is under at home and abroad. Mbeki is being urged to take a tougher stance or show that his quiet tactics can work to persuade Mugabe to stop the violence before the election.
Tsvangirai has called on Mbeki to step down as mediator, accusing him of bias toward Mugabe.
Mlilo expressed little confidence that Mbeki's visit would make a difference, noting "four people died that very day" the South African visited.
"Mugabe doesn't seem to care what the international community thinks," Mlilo said.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded action Wednesday.
"It is time for leaders of Africa to say to President Mugabe that the people of Zimbabwe deserve a free and fair election," she said after a meeting in Washington with Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga — one of the few African leaders who has criticized Mugabe.
"You cannot intimidate opponents, you cannot put opponents in jail, you cannot threaten them with jail on charges of treason and expect to be respected in the international community," Rice said.
Most observers praised the conduct of the first round — although not the delay in releasing official results. But there are growing fears that Mugabe will steal the second round through violence and ballot rigging.
In addition to the violence, Tsvangirai's party has seen rallies banned and campaign stops blocked by police, and its No. 2, Tendai Biti, has been arrested on charges of treason. The opposition says the charges are politically motivated.
On Thursday, Biti was brought back to court and was awaiting a hearing on treason charges to proceed.

Spate of arrests ahead of Zimbabwe runoff election.

This is from allafrica.com.
Mugabe is not about to turn over power. Given that the army and police say that they will not accept the rule of the opposition leader it seems that the election is a farce, a violent and damaging farce as far as the opposition is concerned. It seems that some type of armed insurrection is the only way that Mugabe will be overthrown. Even if he dies the army and police will allow only someone that they approve to rule.


Spate of Arrests Ahead of Elections
UN Integrated Regional Information NetworksNEWS5 June 2008 Posted to the web 5 June 2008 Harare
The detention of presidential contender Morgan Tsvangirai by Zimbabwean police for nearly 12 hours on 4 June is another instance of the orchestrated harassment of opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) supporters and other organisations regarded as out of step with the 28-year rule of President Robert Mugabe, according to analysts.
CARE International, one of the largest non-governmental organisations (NGOs) operating in Zimbabwe, has been ordered to suspend its operations for alleged political activity, as have others.
GA_googleFillSlot("AllAfrica_Other_Inset");
Media reports on 5 June said a convoy of British and US diplomatic staff investigating reports of election violence north of the capital were stopped by a police roadblock at Bindura, 80km from Harare, where the tyres of their vehicles were slashed and a Zimbabwean driver was hauled from one of the diplomatic cars and beaten by police.
Sean McCormack, the US State Department spokesman, said in a televised briefing from Washington that the incident was "unacceptable", had caused "deep distress" and was the action of a government that "does not know any bounds"; the US would take up the incident in the Security Council.
MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa told IRIN that party leader Tsvangirai, his deputy, Thokozani Khupe, party chairperson Lovemore Moyo, as well as other senior party officials and their security detail were stopped at a roadblock, and then held at Lupane police station, north of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second city.
Tsvangirai, who claims that election rigging cost him victory in the 29 March presidential vote, will contest the run-off ballot on 27 June. He left Zimbabwe soon after the March elections, in which ZANU-PF lost control of parliament for the first time since independence in 1980, and very recently returned to Zimbabwe. He sustained head injuries last year from a beating in police custody and has twice been charged with treason.
Chamisa said the party had confirmed the killings of 60 MDC supporters since the March ballot, but this was "a conservative figure", as ZANU-PF had established "no-go" areas where people were "being killed, buried and forgotten".
One of the people killed was a local MDC organiser, Tonderai Ndira, who had been arrested 35 times and was taken from his house on 14 May by six armed, masked men.
His decomposing body was found a few weeks later. According to reports, a preliminary autopsy by an independent South African pathologist said "it was clear that he died very soon after he was abducted."
Absence of election observers
The promise of a heavier presence by the few election observer missions approved by the government had not led to an increase in their "visibility" Chamisa said.
There was no indication that observers from the African Union, the Pan African Parliament and the Southern African Development Community had deployed to violence hotspots in the northern and western provinces of Mashonaland West, Central and East, Manicaland, Masvingo and Midlands.
The president of an MDC breakaway faction, Arthur Mutambara, was released on bail after his arrest under the controversial Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act - a few days before Tsvangirai was taken into custody - for allegedly writing falsehoods and "undermining public confidence in the army".
In an article titled A Shameful Betrayal of Independence, Mutambara, whose party won more than 10 legislative seats in the March elections wrote: "Our country is characterised by extreme illegitimacy, where we have an imbecilic and cynical military junta running the affairs of the country."
He also accused the High Court of aiding the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission -- accused of favouring ZANU-PF -- in delaying the announcement of the 29 March election results.
The government is harassing defenders of people's rights - politicians, civic society members, media practitioners and even clerics - on the assumption that it will cow them into submission, but ZANU-PF ought to know that no amount of coercion will change people's view
There was a long delay in announcing the winning party candidates in the election of municipal councils, the senate, parliament, and for the presidency. The opposition charged that the delay enabled election rigging.
Davison Maruziva, the editor of Zimbabwe's independent newspaper, The Standard, was arrested for publishing the article and is also on bail.
Political analyst John Makumbe said the recent "spate" of arrests was part of a strategy to intimidate government critics ahead of the presidential poll run-off on 27 June.
"The government is harassing defenders of people's rights -- politicians, civic society members, media practitioners and even clerics - on the assumption that it will cow them into submission, but ZANU-PF ought to know that no amount of coercion will change people's views," Makumbe told IRIN.
He said the police were targeting people who held views contrary to those of the government, and "The state media is full of slanderous content, just as ZANU-PF is pregnant with torturers and murderers but the culprits are never arrested." Makumbe claimed the run-off would not be free and fair because of the harassment of critics and members of the opposition.
On 31 May Eric Matinenga, a human rights lawyer who won a parliamentary seat for the MDC, was arrested. Police spokesperson Wayne Bvudzijena said in a statement on 2 June that Matinenga was arrested for incitement in rural Buhera, in Manicaland Province. Matinenga has instituted court action to bar the deployment of soldiers in his constituency, on the grounds that they were spearheading a terror campaign.
Military loyal to Mugabe
The National Constitutional Assembly (NCA), an NGO lobbying for a new, people-driven constitution, has accused the military of acting unconstitutionally by manipulating soldiers to support Mugabe.
The state-controlled daily newspaper, The Herald, quoted Maj-Gen Martin Chedondo as telling soldiers: "the Constitution says the country should be protected by voting, and in the 27 June presidential election run-off, pitting our defence chief, Comrade Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC, we should therefore stand behind our Commander-in-Chief [Mugabe]".
Chedondo said the army was not expected to be apolitical and should protect ZANU-PF principles, otherwise members should resign.
NCA chairman Lovemore Madhuku told IRIN: "The constitution is clear; it does not allocate to the military any political functions and for it to come out so brazenly on the side of a political candidate simply demonstrates the army's waywardness."
The heads of the army, police and prison services have already publicly stated that they will not accept a Tsvangirai presidency.
[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations ]
Copyright © 2008 UN Integrated Regional Information Networks. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com).