US consumer confidence dropped for fourth time in five months in February

(March 26) US consumer confidence dropped for the fourth time in five months as outlook suggest weak first-quarter growth and slower job increases in February negatively impact on attitudes and spending.

Conference Board index slumps

The Board's index dropped to 124.1 from its previous 131.4 the New York based group announced in a report Tuesday March 26. This was quite contrary to estimates by economists for Bloomberg which called for a rise to 132.5. The measure of views of the present situation has fallen to the lowest level in almost a year. The expectations index is also weaker.

Few new jobs in February

A recent article notes: " The pace of hiring in the U.S. slowed sharply in February as the economy added just 20,000 new jobs, marking the smallest increase in 17 months. The number of new nonfarm jobs created last month was well below the 172,000 MarketWatch forecast, but the slowdown was probably exaggerated by seasonal oddities that are unlikely to persist. The U.S. has been adding more than 200,000 new jobs a month for the past year."

Analysts are predicting the weakest economic growth this present quarter since back in 2016. As the price of gasoline rises, consumers will have less money to spend on other goods and services.

Reasons for more positive attitudes

Wage gains have been the best in a decade giving workers more to spend. Also, there has been a rebound in the stock market. The Federal Reserve, is going to be patient with respect to raising interest rates which could dampen expenditures.

The gloomy survey conflicts with the University of Michigan's preliminary measures of March attitudes which show an advance to the highest measure so far this year led by increases in outlooks both for incomes and the economy.

A Conference Board official's view

Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board said: “Confidence has been somewhat volatile over the past few months, as consumers have had to weather volatility in the financial markets, a partial government shutdown and a very weak February. The overall trend in confidence has been softening since last summer, pointing to a moderation in economic growth.”

Some detailed results

Respondents who said that jobs are plentiful went down from 45.7 percent to 42 percent. On the other hand, those claiming that jobs are hard to get climbed from 11.7 percent to 13.7 percent.

The labor differential measuring the gap between respondents claiming jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get has fallen to the lowest since last July.

However, plans for buying both cars and homes has increased. As the appended video shows the Conference Board index is in contrast to that of the earlier released Consumer Sentiment

Previously published in DIgital Journal

US consumer mood at 16 year low..

This is from BBC.
These results don't' augur well for consumer spending. With oil prices skyrocketing inflation will soon be a problem so that cutting interest rates will not be an option for stimulating the economy. We may very well encounter what I call recflation.


US consumer mood at 16-year low
Confidence among US consumers hit its lowest level for 16 years in May, according to the Conference Board.
The research body's Consumer Confidence Index fell to a level of 57.2 in May, down from April's figure of 62.8.
The Conference Board blamed the pessimism on the short-term outlook for the US economy as well as weakening business and job conditions.
The figures tell a similar story to the University of Michigan's Index, which hit a 28-year low in May.
"There is a fear the economy is in a recession or going into one and people may find their jobs in jeopardy," said David Coard from the Williams Capital Group in New York.
"When you talk to people on the street they seem to be really being squeezed at the pump and the supermarket while their income isn't keeping up."
Turnaround unlikely
The Conference Board also issued pessimistic forecasts for the coming months.
"Consumers' inflation expectations, fuelled by increasing prices at the pump, are now at an all-time high and are likely to rise further in the months ahead," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.
"As for the short-term outlook, the Expectations Index suggests little likelihood of a turnaround in the immediate months ahead."
The index is based on responses from 5,000 US households.
It has plunged since last July, when it stood at 111.9.
Since then, the housing slump and rising prices for food and fuel have taken their toll on the mood among consumers.
The figures are closely watched because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity in the US.
Story from BBC NEWS:

US Consumer Comfort Index low.

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX – 8/19/07
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2007

Consumer Confidence Tanks
in Sharpest Drop in 20 Years

Consumer confidence sustained its steepest one-week drop in more than
20 years of ongoing polls this week, falling to its lowest level
since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in late October 2005.
Finally events are beginning to catch up with consumer spending. Consumers may spend less and cause a decline in production or even a depression.


The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index lost an
extraordinary nine points to -20 on its scale of +100 to -100, down
from -11 last week and a summertime high of -5 four weeks ago. Before
now the index never has fallen by more than seven points in a single
week in 1,130 weeks of consecutive polling, and that's just four times.

The decline is broadly based among population groups, and there seems
not to be a single negative event to blame, but a confluence: The
stock market's fall, troubled housing and credit markets, the Fed's
expressions of concern about an economic downturn, the cumulative
effect of high gasoline prices during the summer driving months and a
public broadly dispirited over the course of national events, driven
by the unpopular war in Iraq.