Russia intercepts US surveillance planes over Black Sea

(August 11 )In recent weeks, a recurring problem has been that Russia has intercepted US surveillance planes over the Black Sea as they were caught approaching the Russian border.

	1 of 2

Monday saw another interception

On Monday another interception occurred as a Russian Su-27 fighter jet intercepted two US surveillance planes near the Russian border over the Black Sea. The Russian Defense Ministry's Zvezda broadcasting service said: "Russian airspace control systems have detected two air targets approaching the Russian state border over the neutral waters of the Black Sea."

Many interceptions have happened recently in the same area

Russia has reported at least one interception every week and sometimes even more than one in the same area. It is a mystery why the US would bother to be so active in the same area. The US has no ports inn the area. The planes are generally US Navy-run surveillance planes. The US has not commented on the interceptions.

US and Russia test each other's air defenses

The US has occasionally intercepted a Russian plane in US-controlled Arctic areas as it has approached US airspace. The US always reports on such incidents. It is not unusual for both countries to test each other's air defenses by launching such flights once in a while.

US Black Sea flights are unusual

The US Black Sea surveillance flights are unusual in that they keep provoking the Russian interception in the exact same area evoking exactly the same response. Perhaps the flights are meant simply to annoy the Russians or give the Navy surveillance planes something to do.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

US and Russia indicate they could work together to fight the COVID-19 pandemic

(April 27) In what appears to be a very sensible and innocuous statement the US and Russia issued a joint commemoration this weekend of the meeting in 1945 of US and Russian troops on the Elbe River.

The statement pointed out that the meeting showed the two countries "overcoming their differences in pursuit of a greater cause". The intention of the statement was liken the then common enemy Nazi Germany in 1945 to the current common foe the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the two countries could again work together to defeat the virus.

In a joint statement, US President Trump and Russia President Putin said on April 25: "The 'Spirit of the Elbe' is an example of how our countries can put aside differences, build trust, and cooperate in pursuit of a greater cause."

Earlier this month the Russian ambassador to the US said that ceremonies between Russian and US officials to commemorate the Elbe meeting had been cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statement immediately drew criticism in the US

Former US intelligence analyst Angela Stent said: “I am sure this was a Russian initiative. Putin wants validation from the United States that today’s Russia like the Soviet Union is a great power.”

Representative Eliot Engel, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee tweeted that everyone knew that Trump constantly played into Putin's hands. However, it is in the interests of both countries to cooperate on fighting the virus. It is not clear why cooperating with Putin against a common enemy is playing into Putin's hands. While this may make relations less hostile between the two big powers it is hard to see why this should be regarded as a bad thing. However, that appears the view of some critics.

The UN announcement

The UN has even called for a global ceasefire so that all nations can concentrate of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. The UN and Russia have been the two major countries that have shown some resistance to the call for a global ceasefire. It is a hopeful sign that they both have common ground in a desire to fight the COVID-19 pandemic together. It is a sign that both countries at least recognize the benefit of unity on the issue.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Putin sees US Russia relations deteriorating by the hour

(June 14)US and Russian relations have soured in recent years. The Obama administration pared back ties. While Trump appears to be personally friendly to Putin and wanted to improve relations this has not happened even though some consider Trump a Putin stooge.

Putin claims relations with the US worsening by the hour

Putin made the comments on state TV. The comments contrast starkly with those he made about improving Russia-China trade ties. In 2019 Russian trade with China has already passed the target by $8 billion.

Russia angry at US military deployment in Poland

Russia issued a statement critical of the move: "The Russian foreign ministry slammed the US-Polish agreement on Thursday as a dangerous move that would “add to military and political tensions in Europe”, and leave Moscow with no choice but to retaliate. In an angry statement the ministry accused the US of violating a 1997 Russia-Nato Foundation Act that called for the two sides to co-operate and exercise military restraint in Europe."

US and Russia differ on numerous issues

The US has withdrawn from the P5+1 nuclear treaty with Iran. This has exacerbated US relations with Iran and may sabotage the treaty for the rest of those still involved. The US has threatened nations that do no go along with US sanctions on Iran. Russia has warned the US about escalating threats against Iran. The hawks within the US administration such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo seem to override any dovish moves Trump attempts to make.

Russia warns not to use oil tanker attacks as an excuse for escalation against Iran

A recent article notes: "Russia on Thursday warned against rushing to attribute blame for a suspected attack on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and said the incident should not be used to stoke tensions with Tehran, Russia’s RIA news agency reported."

Two oil tankers were attacked with both adrift and one ablaze. The attacks drove oil prices as much as 4 percent higher on worries about Middle East supplies. The attacks were the second within a month near the Strait of Hormuz a major strategic waterway though which pass global oil supplies.

US blames Iran immediately

The US immediately did exactly what Russia had warned against doing by blaming Iran for the attacks: "US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for an attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, saying the assessment was based on intelligence, but presented no evidence to support his claim. Pompeo spoke hours after the two tankers were attacked Thursday and less than a month after four other ships in the region were struck in what appears to be a similar way. “It is the assessment by the United States government that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for the attacks that occurred in the Gulf of Oman today," Pompeo told reporters at the US State Department.""

The US or one of its allies such as Saudi Arabia or Israel could have launched a "false flag" attack to justify use of the US forces amassed against Iran in the area. They were brought there on the premise of an unspecified increased threat from Iran. Lo and behold the threat becomes a reality.

In spite of present worsening relations and heavy sanctions , in the appended video interview Putin sees better relations with the US over the longer term.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Relations between US and Russia becoming much worse

In spite of Trump's alleged collusion with the Russians during the US election campaign and his avowed aim of achieving better relations with Russia the reality is that relations between the two countries is becoming much worse.

The US Congress passed new sanctions on Russia, as well as Iran and North Korea. The vote in the House was an overwhelming 419 for to just 3 against with the later Senate vote just as lop-sided at 98 for and two against. Punishing Russia is one of very few issues on which there is strong bi-partisan support in Congress. While the president was opposed to the bill he did not veto it. The veto could have been easily overturned and would have brought even more critics to claim that Trump was colluding with Moscow. The bill also contains provisions that prevent Trump from easing sanctions on Moscow. The US Congress seems bound and determined to ensure that US relations with Russia do not improve but will deteriorate even more. The bill will also strain relations with Iran even further and will cause some Iranian hardliners to point to the sanctions as a sign that the US is not to be trusted.

Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev said the new sanctions show that the Trump administration is "utterly powerless" and that the sanctions were tantamount to a "full scale trade war" between Russia and the US. In a Facebook post Medvedev said: "The hope that our relations with the new American administration would improve is finished." While signing the sanctions into law, Trump said that the measures infringed upon his powers to shape foreign policy. He said he could make better deals with foreign governments than Congress. Nevertheless, the White House claimed that Trump supported the new sanctions as he wanted to pressure Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The White House may have been trying to dispel claims that Trump was pressured into accepting the sanctions by lawmakers. The claims seem quite likely to be true. Trump really had little choice but to sign the bill or face even more criticism after his veto was overturned. The White House also denied that Trump spoke to Putin before the legislation.

In a formal signing statement Trump said: "While I favor tough measures to punish and deter aggressive and destabilizing behavior by Iran, North Korea, and Russia, this legislation is significantly flawed." Earlier, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said he and Trump did not think new sanctions would be helpful in furthering diplomatic relations with Russia. Yet Vice-President Mike Pence said that signing the bill showed Trump and Congress were speaking with a unified voice. Rather, Congress was forcing Trump to agree with the bill.

The Russians were unwilling to forgo retaliation in order not to force Trump into replying with even more attempts to punish Moscow. President Putin ordered that the American diplomatic mission in Russia reduce its staff by 755 employees. Putin said that Russia had run out of patience waiting for relations with the US to improve. Putin said on TV:“We waited for quite a long time that, perhaps, something will change for the better, we held out hope that the situation would somehow change. But, judging by everything, if it changes, it will not be soon. Over 1,000 employees — diplomats and technical workers — worked and continue to work today in Russia; 755 will have to stop this activity."

Iran said the new sanctions against it by the US broke the terms of the nuclear deal that it had with the US and a number of other world powers. It vowed an appropriate and proportional response. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on TV: "The main goal of America in approving these sanctions against Iran is to destroy the nuclear deal and we will show a very intelligent reaction to this action." Araqchi could be right about the US wanting to destroy the nuclear deal. On this, Trump is in accord with the US Congress most likely. Arachi said that Iran wanted to respond in a way that did not get involved in the politics of the US government and Trump. It is hard to see how any response could avoid this happening.

Germany and some other European countries have come out against the new US sanctions claiming that they could hurt their economies. Germany and the EU even threatened retaliation. The US is taking actions that are bringing China Russia and Iran closer together and now appear to be alienating key allies in Europe. President Trump tweets: "Our relationship with Russia is at an all-time & very dangerous low. You can thank Congress, the same people that can't even give us HCare! " Trump may be president but he may be learning that the US Congress is boss.

Trump administration shutting down CIA program supporting rebels in Syria

The Russians have called for such a move for years. and the move will no doubt be seen as a victory for Russia and a gift from the US. The program was begun under Obama in 2013.However, stopping the program will not end US involvement in Syria by any stretch of the imagination as the US is deeply involved in funding and arming the Syrian Democratic Forces dominated by Kurds. The Kurds are regarded as terrorists by Turkey and there have been clashes with them.

The US was recently angered as Turkey revealed the location of its numerous bases in Kurdish-controlled areas. There are reports of US armored vehicles pouring into Kurdish-held areas in Syria suggesting that US involvement in Syria is actually increasing even though the CIA program has been jettisoned.

The aid seems to have been frozen in February after the groups suffered from a major Islamist attack in January. There were complicated relations and conflict among groups. Apparently, Trump made the decision after talking with CIA director Mike Pompeo and national security adviser H.R. McMaster. Trump and Russian President Putin also made a deal for a partial cease-fire during their recent meeting at the G-20 summit. The ceasefire includes the area where rebels supported by the CIA are stationed. While this may be seen as helping Russia it also help all those living the areas as they will not suffer the effects of  being in a battle zone.

The development is a stark change from the situation last month when the US shot down a Syrian plane and Russia in response said that US planes flying over the area would be regarded as potential targets. Earlier still, the US had hit a Syrian base with Tomahawk missiles in response to an alleged chemical attack by Assad. No doubt there will be an outpouring of articles describing the cessation of the program as a sellout to Russia even though there is plenty of evidence the program was not working well. It is unlikely to have made any significant difference to the progress of the war.