Trump claims US troops are in Syria only for the oil

(November 15, 2019) President Trump's new position on the Syrian War simplifies matters but only by ignoring the position of lawmakers and the Pentagon on why the US is there. However, it avoids criticizing Turkey and its occupation of the Syrian safe zone.

US presence is all about oil

A recent article sets forth Trump's position: ""As you know, we've pulled back our troops quite a while ago, because I think it's time for us not to be worried about other people's borders," Trump said to reporters alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the White House. "I want to worry about our borders...So, we want to worry about our things," Trump added. "We're keeping the oil, we have the oil, the oil is secure, we left troops behind only for the oil."

This position avoids any conflict with Turkey. However, the new position is no cure all and adequate substitutes for his earlier often conflicting views on the issue.

Internal opposition to the Trump position

Many lawmakers see the Syrian war as in part protecting the Kurds and the Pentagon sees it as well as together with the Kurds fighting ISIS. Some also see the US a helping promote regime change in Syria, although that seems to have been a failure. However, the continued US presence can make things difficult for Assad. Some in the US even see the US presence as countering Russia which supports the Assad government.

Trump's simplified view may reflect his agenda

The Trump position may simply reflect what Trump cares about in Syria. After all he campaigned about getting the US out of useless wars. His new position gives him a reason to keep some troops in Syria and not withdraw them all. Trump may not care about or at least care to admit other reasons for the US staying in Syria.

However, Trump fails to see the legal complications involved in trying to sell the Syrian oil to add to US revenues. Many top US officials are downplaying the matter. No major oil company has come out to support Trump. This is no doubt due to possible legal complications as to who owns the oil. Many military officials hope that Trump's policy fails to work out as he envisages it.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Local sources in Syria report the US is preparing to build two bases near major oil fields

Local sources in eastern Syria report that the US appears to be preparing to build two substantial military bases in the Soor area which is close to major oilfields that the Trump administration claims it will retain.

Trump appears to have revised plans for Syria 

 

Trump withdrew US troops from the 30 km so-called safe zone along the Turkish border with Syria. This allowed Turkey to enter the zone and Kurds had to withdraw. In an agreement with Russia there have been joint controls in parts of the area with Russians. Although some of the US troops were withdrawn into Iraq, Trump announced that some troops would remain to keep control over the oil fields in Kurdish-controlled areas. He even talked of extracting oil from the area. Recent US military deployments appear centered on oilfields in the east of the country. Originally the purpose of US troops was to guard the oil fields against being seized by Islamic militants. No doubt the US also wants to deprive the Syrian government of access to the oil. A recent article notes that US seizing the oil could be a war crime: "After President Donald Trump said on Monday the U.S. will be "keeping the oil" in northeastern Syria, his administration is looking into the "specifics," according to a senior State Department official -- but it's prompted renewed cries that doing so is a war crime." 

 

 Building bases in the area makes sense. 

 

 Since US troops will be staying in the area it is not surprising that bases are being built. It shows that the oil decision led to quick planning and that the US is likely to remain in the area for an indefinite but long period. As a recent Digital Journal article notes Russian news has predicted the US will take oil worth $30 million per month. Trump has actually claimed even more, $45 million per month in his own comments. 

 

 Maintaining US troops in Syria will be costly 

 

 The cost of building the two new bases will not be insubstantial and maintaining troops in them will add to the cost. Trump seems to assume that Syrian oil will pay for these added expenses.  

 

There appears no legal basis for seizing and selling Syrian oil  

 

A recent article notes Trump's position and its lack of any legal basis: "Trump has a long history of calling for the U.S. to "take the oil" in the Middle East, in Iraq and Syria in particular. But any oil in both countries belongs to their governments, and according to U.S. law and treaties it has ratified, seizing it would be pillaging, a technical term for theft during wartime that is illegal under U.S. and international law."We're keeping the oil," Trump said Monday to a conference of police chiefs in Chicago. "I've always said that -- keep the oil. We want to keep the oil, $45 million a month. Keep the oil. We've secured the oil."" Although Trump talks of getting companies such as Exxon-Mobile involved in extracting the oil, so far no large oil company has even expressed interest in such a scheme as there are bound to legal issues arising immediately upon any attempt to extract and claim ownership of the oil.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Russia claims US is poised to sell millions worth of Syrian oil

(November 3)Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for Russia's Foreign Ministry accused the United States of "criminal activity" associated with President Trump's plan to deploy US troops to guard the oil fields in eastern Syria

Zakharova's accusations

The Russian news agency Tass reports Zakharova's exact claims: "Bypassing their own sanctions, the Americans are smuggling oil from Syria worth over $30 mln per month and are not going to leave these areas in the near future. Today’s international community cannot help but ask questions at a time when a civilized country that systematically declares its commitment to some democratic values and international law, is pumping oil out of the northeast of Syria, a sovereign state, and masks its criminal activity by some pretexts of a struggle against the Islamic State.."

Zakharova estimates that the US stood to make tens of millions of dollars every month from the oil extracted in the region.

Mark Esper confirms troops to guard eastern oil fields

The US Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed last month that US troops supported by armored vehicles would be deployed to guard the oil fields. The official narrative is that the mission is designed to prevent the oil resources falling back into the hands of Islamic State militants and providing them with funds. However, Trump and other in his administration have made claims to income from the operation of the fields.

Trump and others want to sell the Syrian oil

Trump has gone as far as to suggest that he might get companies such as Exxon-Mobil or some other US energy company to work the fields. A recent Bloomberg article notes: "President Donald Trump says he’s secured “the Oil” in Syria, while Senator Lindsey Graham is floating the idea of tapping that bounty to help fund military operations in the war-torn nation." The article also reports: "Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, said increasing production of the oil fields will help Syrian Democratic Forces. “We can also use some of the revenues from future oil sales to pay for our military commitment in Syria.”"

The aim of guarding the fields is also to deprive the Assad regime of oil

Recently, Graham said the US control over the Syrian oil fields would deny Assad and Iran a monetary windfall. It would only be with Syrian government permission that Iran could make money through some agreement. The oil is within Syria. It is not evident why the Syrian government should not develop and sell it. Of course the US has imposed sanctions on Syria as well as Iran. The US has followed a policy of Syrian regime change that has failed. Syria is to be punished for that failure.

Syrian oil production is down and deposits are limited

Though Syrian oil deposits are significant they do not compare in size with those of Saudi Arabia or Iraq. The several years of fighting in Syria that has involved extensive bombing has left the industry in poor shape to say the least. Assad and his ally Russia hope to see a full re-unification of the country in the end.

The Kurds have depended upon the US to help keep Assad from taking over Kurdish controlled areas and also to fend off the Turks. However, the US withdrew from the border areas with Turkey where Turkey wants a safe zone. As a result, the Kurds even allowed the Assad regime to take control of a Kurdish-controlled section along the Turkish border. The Kurds may possibly make a deal with Assad although it may be difficult to do this while the US controls areas such as that of the oil fields. It is hardly surprising that both Russia and Assad are much angered by the new US policy and its rationale.

According to Bloomberg, last year Syria was able to extract about 24,000 barrels a day. This would have been worth about $1.5 million at current prices. However, this year due to the war and sanctions production has fallen about 90 percent.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Trump's claim to Syrian oil complicates US mission in Syria

(November 1)President Trump in a recent speech in Chicago said that the US was staying in Syria to control the oil. However, he also said that the US was "keeping the oil" and claimed it was worth $45 million per month.

Trump's position

A recent article reports Trump's position: "Trump has offered varying descriptions of the military's role in eastern Syria. On Oct. 25 he said, "We've secured the oil, and, therefore, a small number of U.S. troops will remain in the area where they have the oil." Three days later, he went further, declaring the oil to be America's."We're keeping the oil — remember that," he said in Chicago. "I've always said that: 'Keep the oil.' We want to keep the oil. Forty-five million dollars a month? Keep the oil."

Trump has twice before claimed he would remove US troops from Syria. He did remove troops from the so-called "safe" buffer zone along the border with Turkey and redeployed some to Iraq without the permission of the Iraqi government that has demanded that they just be considered in transit and move on.

US officials have not said how Trump is going to execute his plans or explained the rationale and legal basis for taking the oil.

Trump himself has suggested he can make a deal with an oil company such as Exxon-Mobil: "US President Donald Trump said yesterday that he is interested in making a deal with Exxon-Mobil or some other energy company to tap Syrian oil reserves in areas not controlled by the Syrian government."

US military goals in Syria have never been that clear and with ISIS mostly defeated no doubt Trump's position set out a new reason for the US to be there. However the mission has now become legally and morally dubious and appears its length is now open-ended.

Doubts about Trump's project

Russia as an ally of Syria was very critical of the Trump position calling it "state banditry". However, even US legal experts said that there was no real legal basis for the US to just seize Syrian oil. Any sale of the oil is problematic as well. No US or other oil companies have shown interest in extracting the Syrian oil no doubt because they realize the ownership of the oil would be disputed.

If any companies do in the end decide to extract the oil under the protection of US military occupation, the occupation could last until the oil runs out.

White House officials have not explained what Trump means by keeping the oil but said privately they had been given no order to take ownership of any Syrian resources including oil wells and stored crude. However Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Thursday he interprets Trump as meaning he will deny Islamic extremists access to the oil.

Details of the new deployment

A recent article describes details of the revised deployment in Syria: "Some 500 US ground troops are currently involved, along with M2A2 Bradley vehicles. Tanks are also reportedly going to be deployed to the area, though it’s not clear any have actually arrived yet.Estimates are that 700 to 900 US troops are going to remain in Syria under this plan, which is a minor decline from the 1,000 troops believed to be present when the US moved out of the north to facilitate the Turkish invasion. "

Previously published in the Digital Journal