Southern Libya may become battleground between forces of competing governments

The Defense Ministry of the UN-brokered Libyan Government of National Accord(GNA) announced today that a new military operation titled Awaited Hope would fight forces loyal to the eastern commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

Spokesperson for the Ministry Mohammed al-Ghasrisaid the operation was aimed at eradicating the forces of Mohammed Ben Nayel, who is loyal to Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army of the east-based House of Representatives(HoR) government. Just four days ago, Ben Nayel militants attacked the Third Force, loyal to the GNA at the Tamnihint air base in Sabha.

Last Thursday, Misrata Political Bloc, a group of Misrata city MPès and politicians requested the Presdidency Council (PC) of the GNA to crush the operations of Haftar in the south. Haftar operations are often referred to as Operation Dignity, and they are meant to clear out all Islamist opponents of Haftar from Libya. The operation began in May of 2014. The Misrta group said that immediate action had become imperative. Preparations to send troops south were said to be in full swing.

Meanwhile, the Operations Room of the Presidential Council's air force said in a statement that last Wednesday their warplanes had responded to air attacks of Dignity Operation on the Third Force positions and personnel at Timnahent air base. The Operations Room said that fighter aircraft had targeted warplanes of the Dignity Operation that were at the Barak Al-Sahtea air base.

Colonel Mohammed Ganono reading from the statement said: "This is a message for all those who cherish messing with the fortunes of the Libyans or acting away from the legitimate Government of National Accord. The die is cast. Our air force will no longer tolerate such actions by Dignity Operation command and our personnel and warplanes will target any illegal movements across the entire country." Early Wednesday morning Dignity Operation fighter aircraft had bombed locations around the Tamniint airbase according to Third Force commander Jamal al-Treki. He confirmed that the group had engaged in heavy clashes with Ben Nayel's forces.

The commander of the DIgnity Operation in the region, Shareef Al-Awami, threatened to attack Misrata airbase if any more attacks were made on the Barak Al-Shatea air base. Al-Awami said: “We have the ability to intercept and down their L-39 jet fighters". The Brak Al-Sahti air base is about 60 kilometers north of Sabha a main city in southwestern Libya.

The radical group Benghazi Defense Brigades(BDB or SDB)) have decided that they will turn over the Jufra air base to central government forces creating a situation where there could be more clashes with Haftar forces. A tweet notes: "#Libya- #SDB statement on willingness to handover Jufrah Airbase to "General Staff of the Libyan Army" (#GNA-#Misrata)"

The prime minister of the eastern-based rival HoR government, Abdullah al-Thinni, has now rejected the view of international leaders, including the UN envoy Martin Kobler, that dialogue is the only way forward and there is no military solution. Al-Thinni insists that divisions in the country can only be resolved by military means. This is the position of Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar as well. An outright civil war is in danger of starting.

Many killed and several dozen wounded in clashes near southern Libyan city of Sebha

Numbers killed and wounded vary with different reports but the latest report from the Libya Herald gives a total of at least 15 killed and more than 35 wounded in four days of fighting in the southern city of Sabha.

The fighting is between rival tribes of Awlad Suleiman and Qaddadfa. The latter is the tribe to which Muammar Gadaffi, the former ruler of Libya, belonged. There was a brief pause this morning (November 19) when there was a two-hour ceasefire. The fighting is in the Al-Minshiya and Al-Madiya areas. Local residents confined to their homes say that their homes have been shaken as fighters use heavy mortars, and a tank cannon, as well as DShKM (Dushka) heavy caliber machine guns.

The Sabha medical center has been calling in all its staff as more dead and injured are brought in. A spokesperson for the hospital said that the hospital lacked the staff and medication to deal with the crisis situation. A recent tweet said: "#Sebha medical center calls all medical staff to urgently attend as tribal war rages &casualties mutiply". The Misratan Third Force used to provide security in Sabha but most of the unit moved out to help support the offensive against the Islamic State in Sirte.

It is not certain why the fighting started although there are local reports claiming that it started when a monkey owned by own tribesman bit a rival tribesman. There are long-standing rivalries between the two tribes. In 2015 when Gadaffi's son Saif was sentenced to death by a Tripoli court there were violent demonstrations in Sabha with the Gadaffi green flag draped from many buildings. Saif was never executed. There are reports he was released in July.

In an earlier report in the Libya Observer, 7 people were reported killed and 25 injured on Friday as clashes again erupted. The Sabha medical center declared a state of emergency. Five people were reported killed on Thursday. Spokesperson for the Sabha Medical Center, Osama Al-Wafi, said: “Over 30 people arrived at the Sabha Medical Center and some needed urgent surgeries, but the lack of equipment and shortage of medics had entangled the situation.”

Ibrahim Mehrez of the Sabha municipal council said that a delegation from notables and elders in Sabha had been approached to negotiate a ceasefire. Meanwhile many main roads remain closed in the city and there are many rival fighters present in residential areas. Sources indicated that some families had been able to flee to safer areas of the city.

In Libya's south Libyan National Army officers unsuccessfully try to change their commander

Officers of the Libyan National Army(LNA) meeting near the southern city of Sebha named General Suliman Kanah, as southern commander. Commander-in-chief Marshal Khalifa Haftar was not consulted.

In spite of naming a new commander without the approval of Haftar the officers said that they were still under the control of the army according to the Libya Herald. They also agreed to set up a southern operations room. Army personnel were told to report to their units.

The officers also said that they saw their mission as staying out of "political polarization". Their key concern was to control and protect the south. This neutral position is counter to that of Haftar who does not recognize the GNA and regards militia groups supporting it as his enemies to be defeated. When the Libya Herald made his report Haftar had not reacted. The Herald notes that after Haftar replaced local commander Omar Tantoush a Warshefani with Emad Trabisi from Zintani, Tantoush's unit defected. Haftar is obviously facing disobedience in the south as well.

The Libya Observer also reports on the meeting but has a somewhat different description of what happened. The Observer describes the group as former Gadaffi army officers in south Libya. The Observer claims that they had decided to set up their own military command after years of fighting as part of Haftar's Operation Dignity:During a meeting in Qira town in Wadi Shati on Thursday, the officers selected General Ali Kannah as the commander of “Libyan Arab Armed Forces in South Libya,” and to be separate from Khalifa Haftar’s so called “General Command of Libyan Armed Forces” in Al-Marj.There does not seem to be any statement about being part of Haftar's Libyan National Army or the General Command of the Libyan Armed Forces. Kannah confirmed that the group would not act under a unified command until the Libyan state was built. The group is obviously not joining GNA forces under the command of the Presidential Council. He said his forces would not be involved in politics. The establishment of the group he said was an internal matter for the southern region.

Haftar did not wait very long to react to these actions. He reacted not with words but with action. A more recent report from the Herald claims:General Mohamed Ben Nail said that his troops had surrounded the rebel commanders and used mediators to persuade them to hand over their arms. According to LANA in Beida the rebels had then been allowed to go free. There was no mention of where this confrontation took place nor whether Kannah was among the disarmed commanders who were released.

General Nail blamed UN envoy, Martin Kobler, for the attempted rebellion claiming his aim was to divide the Libyan National Army. As a result of the rebellion, Nail said the LNA had reinforced its positions in the city of Sebha. It will be interesting to find out what happens to Kannah.

If the reports of the rebellion being quashed are true, the LNA may very well increase its hold on Sebha. Misrata's Third Force had been the dominant group in Sebha until July. They had been there since 2014. However, when the offensive began against Sirte the larger part of the militia withdrew from the Sebha region to help out. Haftar may be waiting until his command in the south and in the west is secure before he attempts any move on Tripoli as part of his Operation Dignity to liberate Libya from Islamists, at least any who oppose him. Before that happens, the GNA and Kobler hope that they can provide Haftar with some role in the GNA which will convince him to join the GNA and urge the HoR to vote confidence in it.