United States and Russia agree to a ceasefire and de-escalation zone in southwest Syria

The US together with Russia and Jordan have agreed to a ceasefire in the southwestern area of Syria. The ceasefire was reported after the meeting of Putin and Trump on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Hamburg. The meeting was exceedingly long lasting a full two hours and twenty minutes. There is also a more general ceasefire that came into force back at the end of December 2016. Despite many reported violations it appears to be generally holding. The UN Security Council passed a resolution last December supporting the ceasefire.

The ceasefire is to take effect on July 9 at noon Damascus time. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the announcement after Trump's meeting with Putin. Lavrov said: “In this zone [in southern Daraa, Quneitra and As-Suwayda provinces] the ceasefire regime will take effect on July 9 starting 12:00 Damascus time. The US took an obligation that all the militant groups, located there, will comply with the ceasefire.” It remains to be seen if all the groups are willing to comply with the ceasefire. A separate agreement for a  de-escalation zone was negotiated by experts from Russia, Jordan, and the US in Amman the capital of Jordan. Lavrov said: “At first, the security around this de-escalation zone will be maintained with the help of Russian military police in coordination with the Jordanians and Americans.”

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at a news conference that the ceasefire agreement indicates that the US and Russia can work together on the Syrian crisis. No doubt many critics of an accommodation of the US with Russia will be critical of this development even though any cessation of hostilities one would think is positive. It may pave the way for an eventual political solution. Tillerson said: "I think this is our first indication of the US and Russia being able to work together in Syria, and as a result of that we had a very lengthy discussion regarding other areas in Syria that we can continue to work together on to de-escalate the areas." The present deal is separate from a draft agreement worked out earlier this year during talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, sponsored by Iran and attended by Russia, Turkey, the Syrian government and some representatives of the armed opposition. A final agreement has yet to be signed.

Meeting between top US and Russian diplomats tense

(April 12) The meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was far from friendly. Later, Tillerson also met with Russian president Putin.

Lavrov warned Tillerson publicly against any further U.S. military strikes on the Syrian regime. No meeting with Russian president Putin was scheduled although after being kept waiting for two hours he finally did have a long meeting with Putin that lasted about two hours. Tillerson had a friendly relationship with Putin and Russia while he headed the oil giant Exxon but there was no friendliness on exhibit publicly at this meeting. Tillerson told reporters: “There is a low level of trust between our two countries. The world’s two foremost nuclear powers cannot have this kind of relationship.” Although Putin had a somewhat frosty relationship with Obama and Trump promised during his campaign that he would promote better relationships with Russia, Putin said: "One could say that the level of trust on a working level, especially on the military level, has not improved, but rather has deteriorated."

While Russia still claims that Assad was not guilty of the chemical attack near Idlib in Syria, Trump has not only blamed Assad but US officials have suggested that Russia was complicit knew of the attack and bombed a hospital in an attempt to cover up what happened. At the meeting, Tillerson stepped back from that accusation somewhat:Tillerson has in recent days blasted Russia for incompetence or complicity in the Syrian chemical attack, saying Moscow was not living up to the terms of a 2013 deal to help eliminate Assad’s stockpile of such weapons. But when pressed Wednesday, Tillerson said the U.S. had “no firm information to indicate that there was any involvement by Russia” in the specific attack on Idlib.

Trump has been trying to avoid the issue of Russian influence and interference in the election which he won. He has changed his tune entirely on Syria. During the election campaign he resolved not to become involved in costly foreign wars such as that in Syria. However, after the alleged chemical attack by Assad, he bombed Assad's airbase and now is returning to a position of supporting regime change, after just giving up the policy. As a result, instead of this meeting being the start of a detente between Russia and the U.S. it was a tense affair with neither side budging from their main positions. They both did agree that they should fight against the Islamic State but that is about all except that they would again activate mechanisms to ensure that U.S.-coalition, Syrian and Russian planes did not collide over Syria.

Tillerson held firm to the U.S. position that Assad was to blame for the chemical attack, while Lavrov just as firmly held that Assad was not responsible and that the gases could have been the result of the bombing of a rebel warehouse that contained chemicals stored by the rebels, or that somehow the rebels could have staged the event in an attempt to blame Assad and gain the support of the U.S. and other western countries for their cause. A variant on the Russian version is set out by retired U.S. intelligence officer Colonel Patrick Lang. Lang argues that the US had been contacted by the Russians and knew they intended to attack the chemical storage warehouse. Tillerson said: “That the recent chemical weapons attack carried out in Syria was planned, it was directed and executed by Syrian regime forces and we're quite confident of that. It's important that Assad’s departure is done in an orderly way so that certain interests and constituencies that he represents feel they have been represented at the negotiating table for a political solution.” Lavrov put forth the Russian position: "With regard to the use of chemicals in the territory controlled by the opposition, on numerous occasions the Syrian government and the Syrian servicemen have given us absolute evidence about the use of chemical weapons. This was not some kind of distant information but information from the site.” It should be noted that both parties agree that there was a Syrian attack on the site. The disagreement is whether the Assad government carried out a chemical attack.

In other developments, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem is next to visit Moscow from April 13-15 for talks with Lavrov. Maria Zakharova a spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry said that the foreign minister of Iran would meet with the two on April 14 for a three-way talk. No doubt the three will be discussing a response to the actions of the U.S.

US threatens North Korea with military action

(April 2) Last month in South Korea, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned that a military option was still on the table in dealing with North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

The threats continue as President Donald Trump has declared that he would be willing to go it alone if China fails to alter North Korea's behavior. Trump said in an interview: "China will either decide to help us with North Korea or they won't. If they do, that will be very good for China, and if they don't, it won't be good for anyone." Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping in the U.S. He intends to bring the issue up.

The Chinese president may also bring up the deployment of the Thaad missile system in South Korea an act that both China and Russia see directed against them as discussed in a recent Digital Journal article.

Trump considers China is responsible for allowing North Korea to continue with its nuclear program. He said he intended to use trade as an "incentive" to talk China into fixing it. There is not the slightest thought that China might have any grievances with the U.S. actions in North Korea. Nor do the extensive war games of the U.S. with South Korea that apparently mimic a pre-emptive invasion of the North ever register as being regarded as a provocation by North Korea. Trump said in an interview: "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will." When asked if he believed the U.S. could solve the problem on its own he said "totally". There was no mention of South Korea it would seem.

North Korea claimed to have tested a nuclear warhead last September and this year it has fired several missiles and tested a new rocket engine. U.S. defense officials claim that North Korea might be able to use the rocket engine it just tested to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile. Many South Koreans worry that the deployment of the U.S. missile defense system may endanger them as shown in the appended video of a demonstration from about six months ago.

White House Secretary claims relationships with Mexico phenomenal

Just as a two-day meeting of Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, and John Kelly Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), with Pena Nieto Mexican president and other officials begins, the two countries disagree as to the quality of their relationship.

lodd Im

When White House press secretary Sean Spicer was asked about the meeting and the state of relations between the two countries he said:

“We have a very healthy and robust relationship with the Mexican government, and Mexican officials and I think they would echo that same sentiment. President Peña Nieto has echoed that at well. I think the relationship with Mexico is phenomenal right now, and I think there’s an unbelievable and robust dialogue between our two nations.”As in the quote, Spicer also thought that president Nieto would offer the same opinion. That seems highly unlikely.

Last month President Nieto abruptly cancelled a visit to Washington after disagreements about Mexico paying for the wall on the border that Trump has ordered built. As one article suggests perhaps the two leaders were backed into a corner: " Donald Trump by his promises in the campaign that he was going to build that wall and Mexico was going to pay for it, and Pena Nieto because his approval ratings are so terrible, that he has to play hardball politically. " Trump suggested later that the meeting was cancelled by mutual agreement. It was more like mutual disagreement!

On February 13th two separate demonstrations against Trump policies in Mexico City drew about 20,000 people as shown on the appended video. Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray claimed that Mexico would not accept unilateral immigration policies as Trump had been issuing:"I want to say clearly and emphatically that the government of Mexico and the Mexican people do not have to accept provisions that one government unilaterally wants to impose on the other. We will not accept it, because there's no reason why we should, and because it is not in the interests of Mexico."Videgaray was responding to the issuance by the DHS of two memos which give immigration authorities considerable power and latitude to deport undocumented immigrants. Many more could be deported back to Mexico. The memos are discussed in a recent Digital Journal(DJ) article and the arrival of US officals is discussed in another DJ article. Tillerson and Kelly will have done a phenomenal job if they are even able to bring Mexican US relationships back to normal.