Islamic State has lost virtually all its territory in Libya except part of city of Sirte

A spokesperson for the forces attacking Sirte from the east, Al-Bunyan Al-Marsoos (Solid Structure) Mohammed Al-Ghasri confirms that Misrata-led forces forces from the west and Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) from the east have now seized the Harawa district to the east of Sirte.

Al-Ghasri boasted: “The battle for Sirte has been won by our forces, the die is cast, IS militants have completely collapsed and we will free the city in a matter of two days.”

The forces entered into Sirte on Wednesday capturing several military camps including Al-Jalit and Tagreft. They also took control of the Buhadi districts and the Zafaran roundabout where IS hung opponents.

It is only 5 kilometers, about three miles, to the city center. The Misrata militias from the west have now joined up with the PFG forces from the east.

A tweet also announced the takeover of the town ofHarawa:"LibyaschannelEN  ‏@LibyaschannelEN #BunyanMarsus Ops Room announces liberation of #Harawa almost exactly one year after the village was seized by #IS."

The Solid Structure forces are loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). 

There has been air support for some operations. Inside the city of Sirte the Solid Structure forces are advancing to take the Ougadougou Conference Hall one of the headquarters of the Islamic State. A recent tweet says: Air force bombs #ISIS targets near Ouagadougou Conference Hall as ground forces r preparing to launch a military offensive 2retake the hall.  

There have been severe casualties to the Solid Structure forces. A tweet reports: "15 killed + 95 wounded Yesterday vs #daesh #misrata_hospital." There is a dire shortage of medical supplies. In one city not too far from Misrata, Bani Walid, a tweet says the hospital is virtually deserted: " Ali al-Nagrat: Bani Walid hospital is almost deserted because it lacks equipment and medicine". Another tweet has the Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA) pleading with the international community for help:"#GNA PC says int'l community has moral responsibility to provide urgent medical aid to forces fighting #IS in #Sirte."

Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) in a recent news releasenoted the progress against Daesh or the Islamic State and commended those who were fighting against terrorism in all parts of Libya "including in Benghazi and Derna".

Kobler asked for a ceasefire in Benghazi which Khalifa Haftar, commander in chief of the Libyan Natioal Army (LNA) ignored him.

The terrorists in Derna that Haftar is fighting with his Operation Volcano are the Shura Council of Derna Jihadists who deny they have any connection to Al Qaeda and were instrumental in driving the Islamic State out of Derna and surrounding area. Haftar has been bombing Derna for days. I enclose a photo of some of the damage. He characterizes the Council members as part of Al Qaeda.

Events have moved quickly since Kobler's news release and the Islamic State will soon hold no territory in Libya. No doubt there are many sleeper cells throughout the country who will wage terror attacks.  

The Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) has yet to vote confidence in the GNA.

Although numerous meetings have been called to do so, they were either lacking a quorum, or were disrupted. No vote has been taken.  

A tweet announces that a meeting for a vote will be held on Monday: "Mohamed Eljarh‏@Eljarh HoR session on Monday announced by Agilah Saleh in #Tobruk. Unlikely that pro-GNA HoR members would join him for the session. #Libya."  

Saleh is sanctioned by the EU for actions impeding the implementation of the Libya Political Agreement (LPA).  An alleged majority of the HoR have agreed to the GNA in principle. It may be that they fear if they come to Tobruk they will again not be allowed to vote.

It is not at all clear why the HoR is unable to provide security for the vote.

This sets a terrible example for the future role of the HoR as the legislature of the GNA.

Libyan unity government forces advancing on Islamic State stronghold of Sirte

Forces of the Al-Bunyan Al-Marsoos (Solid Structure) had clashed with IS forces at Al-Gardabiya air base just outside of Sirte on Friday.

It has now been confirmed by numerous sources that that the base has been captured as of today. Spokesperson for the brigades, Mohamed Al-Gasri, said that capture of the base was significant strategically as it cut off supply routes to the IS and trapped them in the city.

Three fighters from the brigades were killed and five wounded in the fighting on Saturday.

The base is about 20 kilometers or 12 miles from Sirte. A tweet gives a larger casualty count: "#Libya | At least 4 killed & 16 injured from #GNA Forces after clashes with #IS to retake Al-Qardabiya Airport #Sirte #PT".

IS gained control of Sirte last year and also took control of the air base. The population of Sirte is about 80,000 but it is thought that most have fled. Al-Gasri said that residents who remain would be given a chance to escape before the brigades advanced into residential areas. It remains to be seen if IS will allow them to escape or use them as human shields. Al-Gasri said: "We are concerned now because Daesh (Islamic State) militants are hiding among civilians inside the city."

Al-Gasri claimed that the brigades are operated solely by Libyan senior military leaders and soldiers and denied that there are foreign forces or military experts helping them. This contradicts other reports that claim that UK special forces helped destroy IS suicide vehicles. There are also reports that they are torturing IS by playing loud Bollywood music. Al-Gasri also said that at least 700 IS fighters had been killed since the start of the operation against them.

He asked that the UN arms embargo be lifted so that the brigades could be supplied with more weapons and ammunition. He said that such articles as Night Vision Devices, demining and mine-detecting devices, as well as bullet-proof armour was needed. A recent report also says that the brigades now hold Abu Hadi, Arrawagha, road and Checkpoint 40 which along with seizure of the air base is pushing IS into the city itself.

On the eastern front, the Petroleum Facilities Guard(PFG)which supports the GNA has taken two towns recently. The towns are near the eastern border of territory held by IS. IS is said to have retreated to Harawa just 50 kilometers or 30 miles from Sirte.

The PFG is said to be advancing toward the town.

General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army associated with the rival government of the House of Representatives(HoR) announced weeks ago that he was marching to liberate Sirte but so far has not had any clashes with them. He could attack from the east and south. Such an attack would be disastrous for the IS which is hard put to defend itself on the two fronts already in operation.

Forces loyal to Government of National Accord

Oil ports in eastern Libya may reopen

After being closed for a year, three eastern Libyan oil ports are now set to re-open. The positive development for the oil industry is taking place as the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) consolidates its power in Tripoli.

The Wall Street Journal reports that militia officials have announced the re-opening. Ali al-Hassi, spokesperson for the Petroleum Facilities Guard(PFG) said: “We are planning to reopen the ports. It’s under the control of the unity government now.” Ironically, the ports were closed after Ibrahim Jodhran or Jadhran head of the PFG militia refused to load any ships that were not registered with the rival National Oil Company of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Now the Tripoli-based neutral National Oil Company is cooperating with the GNA and has apparently broken off any relationships with the rival General National Congress (GNC) based in Tripoli. The three ports are Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, and Zuetina. The GNA confirmedthe re-opening was planned:

Mr. Sarraj’s cabinet, called the Government of National Reconciliation, confirmed on its Facebook page that the “guards [protecting] the installations had agreed to open ports and work immediately” under its control.Faiez Serraj is the Prime Minister of the GNA.

The oil facilities are not guarded by the Libyan National Army(LNA) under commander in chief Khalifa Haftar but by Jodhran's militia group. Jodhran is an opponent of Haftar. When the oil facilities were under attack by the Islamic State, the Libyan National Army did not help defend the facilities. It was left solely to the PFG. The only air support against the IS came from the opposing GNC government.

Jodhran was named commander of the PFG in 2012 after the overthrow of Gadaffi. He became unhappy with the central government, accusing it of corruption and incompetence. He demanded more autonomy for the eastern Cyrenaica area:In 2013, Jadhran set up the Cyrenaica Political Bureau and secured control of eastern ports, namely Sidra, Ras Lanuf and Zueitina.[3] In August 2013, Jathran issued the “Ras Lanuf Declaration”, the declaration asks for the right to “govern our own affairs”.[1] By October 2013, Jathran’s militia , the Cyrenaica Self-Defense Force, was estimated to number 17,500 men.[1]In 2014, Jodhran attempted to illegally sell oil excluding the central government and National Oil Company. The MV Morning Glory was loaded with crude at Sidra and evaded a government blockade. US forces took control of the ship on March 16, 2014 and returned it to the central government. U.S. Ambassador at the time, Deborah Jones, said that Jodhran's action were a "theft from the Libyan people."

Jodhran now supports the GNA and pledges to open the ports. His separatist leanings appear to have disappeared for now. In spite of trying to steal oil and costing Libya billions in lost exports and production he has been transformed into one of the "good guys". While the GNA appears to be gaining support in the west and to some extent in the south, the situation in the east remains uncertain. While the GNA has the support of Jodhran there is not a peep out of the HoR. Haftar will not be pleased with the actions of Jodhran. At present, there is a meeting going on in Marj where Haftar has his headquarters:"‏@LibyaschannelEN Meeting of #GNA critics in #Marj today w/ boycotting deputy PM Ali Gitrani, members of HoR's Sovereignty bloc & some eastern mayors: sources "Haftar could be planning for the HoR to hand over power to a military tribunal. This would be risky. The UN would not recognize the tribunal and he would need to seize the oil ports in order to finance his new Libyan government. If he did decide to do this there could be fighting in the west as well between militia loyal to Haftar and those loyal to the GNA. If the GNA allows Haftar to remain as head of the Libyan National Army, the GNA will implode as Islamists within the GNA rebel or leave.

Guards at eastern Libya oil export port stop shipments

Guards at the eastern Libyan port of Zueitina have halted crude shipments. To load crude, tankers will be required to register with the National Oil Company(NOC) linked to the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) government.

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So far oil companies and tankers have continued to register only with the neutral National Oil Company with headquarters in Tripoli. They have refused to risk breaking off relations to deal with the eastern-based HoR government's NOC. Closing down the port and requiring this new registration are developments that not only threaten the dialogue process but also threatens to break the country into two. The two institutions which enabled the country to function as one entity on the international scene were the Libyan Central Bank and the National Oil Company(NOC). The NOC deposits funds it collects from exported oil and deposits them in the Central Bank which distributes funds to both rival governments. Both institutions have remained neutral between the two rival governments. The UN warned against any attempts to try to alter the situation by one side or the other: In this regard, UNSMIL calls on the parties to safeguard the national institutions by refraining from taking any steps that could compromise the neutrality of these institutions that are crucial for Libya’s economic survival.

The HoR has ignored that warning for some time. It has attempted to set up its own control of the Central Bank by appointing a rival head of the bank. It created its own National Oil Company and has been attempting with little success to have oil companies work through it rather than the neutral NOC. Now Ibrahim Jodran or Jadhran has obviously told the guards only to load tankers if they are registered with the rival NOC, forcing any companies who want to load oil to work through the eastern government alone. The neutral National Oil Company with headquarters in Tripoli has declared force majeure at Zueitina meaning that circumstances beyond its control make it unable to carry out contracts.

Ali al-Hasy a Petroleum Guard spokesperson said that vessels registered with the neutral NOC are "illegitimate" and will not be permitted to load at the port. The closure of the port has also meant that the As-Sarah field has suspended crude exports since no tankers are loading crude.

The level of oil production before the revolution was about 1.6 million barrels a day of crude. With the port closure Libya production will drop to about 400,000 barrels a day. The Zueitina port only began exports on October 5 after a five month halt due to protests.

The Petroleum Guards are a militia under the control of Ibrahim Jodran or Jadhran. There is a long interesting inteview with Jodran at euronews. This is the same person who shut down oil ports in eastern Libya for many months:In 2013, Jadhran set up the Cyrenaica Political Bureau and secured control of eastern ports, namely Sidra, Ras Lanuf and Zueitina.[3] In August 2013, Jathran issued the “Ras Lanuf Declaration”, the declaration asks for the right to “govern our own affairs”.[1] By October 2013, Jathran’s militia , the Cyrenaica Self-Defense Force, was estimated to number 17,500 men.[1]

Jadhran even attempted to load oil and sell it independently of the NOC in 2014. He loaded the tanker Morning Glory with oil at Sidra and it managed to break through a government blockade. The US located the ship and took it over and returned it to the Libyan government. US Ambassador, Deborah Jones, said that Jadhran's actions were a theft from the Libyan people. Now Jadhran will have the blessing of the internationally-recognized HoR government which all along has wanted to have companies sign up with its rival NOC. As the pro-GNC Libya Observer observes:The eastern government of Abdullah Al-Thanni aims to take control of oil sector, which is still under the main oil corporation in Tripoli, and divert oil revenues to its bank in Al-Bayda.

Will the US consider this a theft from the Libyan people since it bypasses the neutral NOC in Tripoli and also the neutral Libya Central Bank? Don't count on it.

Khalifa Haftar, commander of the HoR armed forces, and Jadhran used to be allies and both still are opposed to the GNC, but of late Jadhran and Haftar are at odds. Jadhran even accuses Haftar of attempting to assassinate him and has been exceedingly critical of him. Jadrhan's actions will have the effect of splitting Libya in two and probably sabotaging any attempt at forming a Government of National Reconciliation. Given Jadhran's moves will disrupt oil supplies from Libya and helped drive up the price of oil today perhaps some action will be taken against him by the international community.