US Secretary of State Pomeo appears to be fomenting a new Cold War with China

 (July 31) Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed in comments before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the "tide is turning' in favor of the US and against China. He says that he has seen more international support for US policies on China in recent days.

US seems determined to start a new Cold War with China

Pompeo has almost daily unleashed diatribes against China. He has called for a global alliance against what he calls Chinese "tyranny'. His comments today indicate he feels he is getting some response to his interest in a new Cold War against China.

Pompeo said:"We see the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for what it is: the central threat of our times."

US dismayed more countries are not joining with the US against China

Pompeo was particularly annoyed that more nations were not taking a hard line on China on the Hong Kong security law. He declared China the "central threat of our time". It is not clear how exactly China can be such a threat, Perhaps China is a threat to US economic dominance.

US tries to persuade countries not to adopt Huawei 5g technology

The US not only itself is carrying out a trade war with China but is trying to persuade other countries not to invest in Chinese technology such as that of Huawei. Many countries see little benefit to them in joining the US in a trade war against China and many may resent US attempts to stop them from investing in Huawei's 5g technology.

Huawei sold most smart phones globally in the second quarter

Research firm Canalys reports that Hawei shipped 55.8 million devices in the second quarter of 2020 with Samsung in second place. This is in spite of US actions that have made the phones somewhat less competitive outside China: "The restrictions mean Huawei phones now face a distinct disadvantage outside China because they can only run a stripped-down open source version of Google's Android operating system and don't come with the U.S. search giant's apps like Chrome, YouTube, and Google Maps. Users also have to download apps through Huawei’s own app store, not the Google Play store."

The US could very well end up losing the most in its trade war against China. Many countries even allies could resent US attempts to persuade them to abandon what could be beneficial trade relations with China. The US has closed the Chinese consulate in China prompting China to also close a US embassy in a Chinese city. Instead of expanding trade relationships between the two countries that could benefit both, the US is following what can only be a lose lose policy of cutting off such relations.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Pompeo's rants amount to a new Cold War but with China

 (July 26) After almost daily rants against China, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is now indicating that the goal of US hostility is to change China as the US begins what is in effect a new Cold War against the country.

Back to the red scare era

Pompeo likened the situation as akin to the earlier Cold War with the Soviet Union. He said that other nations in the world had an obligation to defend freedom and warned that at “our children’s children may be at the mercy of the Communist party.” He also claimed that the US had changed Soviet behavior.

Pompeo's language harks back to the language of red scares. Like the Soviet reds China wants to dominate the world and is a threat to all "freedom loving" nations. The aim may be in part to cause Americans and others to fear Chinese domination in the future.

Pompeo said: “Changing the CCP’s behavior cannot be the mission of the Chinese people alone. Free nations have to work to defend freedom. If we bend the knee now, our children’s children may be at the mercy of the Communist party." Pompeo said he had faith that the US could get China to change its behavior. This rhetoric is completely bizarre but it shows what US officials believe can still be effective in manufacturing consent for US policy in the future. If the US is so intent on defending freedom why is it a close ally of authoritarian states such as Saudi Arabia and why do they recognize their own chosen coup leader Juan Guaido as the interim leader of Venezuela rather than the elected president Nicolas Maduro?

US domination may be doomed

The US is the dominant nation both economically and militarily throughout the globe. The US tries to function as world policeman backed by its economic and financial power The US uses sanctions to try and control the behavior of nations such as Venezuela that resist its policy aims.

China's huge economic growth is beginning to challenge the US dominance although even allies such as the European Union are becoming frustrated by the US use of international systems such as the SWIFT financial system as a weapon to further its own ends. Christopher Bovis, professor of international business law at the University of Hull in the UK, notes "The European Commission has been developing a system, a parallel system to SWIFT which will allow Iran to interface with European financial systems, European clearing systems, using the nominations supported and created by the European Investment Bank based on the euro."

US policy is not to engage with China

The US and China could develop a win-win trade relationship with each other but US policy seems now to see China as an evil competitor. Pompeo said that the US can "never go back to engagement" declaring it a Marxist Leninist regime that was following a bankrupt totalitarian ideology. However, China's economy has been booming and in time may come to equal US production. Meanwhile, the US appears to be not facing up to its own social and economic problems but instead is using fear of China to divert attention from problems withing the US itself. Instead of pursuing productive trade and other relations with China a win-win situation the US has chosen a path which will hurt the economies of both countries and heighten tensions a lose-lose strategy.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Mike Pomeo says China threat to Israel and US

(June 15) Mike Pompeo US Secretary of State gave a speech to the American Jewish Committee (AIC) which reflected US mounting hostility towards China. Pompeo argued that China and its foreign policy are a mounting challenge to both the US and Israel.

Chinese and Israeli interests do not conflict or even interact much

However, Israel may go along with or at least approve US rhetoric in order to ensure US continue treating it well. Pompeo played up the idea that China was a threat to the US "way of life" and endangers everyone. More likely Chinese expanded economic power is a threat to US remaining the global bully and policeman.

Pompeo slammed China's foreign policy as well as its human rights policy internally and in relations with Hong Kong.

US trying to have Israel limit ties with China

The Trump administration has been attempting to get more nations to disconnect from relations with China where it can. Pompeo had recently visited Israel and had then pressed Israel to limit any business ties with Chinese companies.

Pompeo also praised US policy in the Middle East although its vision is rejected by the Palestinians: "Pompeo also said that the Trump administration’s vision for the Middle East is the “most realistic path” to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He did not, however, refer directly to the question of Israeli annexation of settlements in the occupied West Bank, or to the prospects of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority." The US supports Israeli annexation of portions of the occupied West Bank as part of its plan for peace.

EU will not join in the Trump anti-China campaign

Joseph Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, has ruled out any alliance with the US against China and dismissed the whole idea of "systematic rivalry" with China. Borrell called for a "big positive agenda for EU-China cooperation". Borrell made this statement just a day before he and 27 foreign ministers are expected to have a video conference with Mike Pompeo. Many countries are beginning to resist and counter US attempts to determine their relations with China.

The appended video is one Chinese reaction to US policy.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Netanyahu and Pompeio forge ahead with US Israel defense pact

(December 6, 2019)This Wednesday, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, and Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State met for an hour and 45 minutes working on the specifics of a planned US-Israel defense pact.

Meeting will be seen as an intervention in Israeli politics

Israeli probably intervenes quite often in US politics to try to advance its interests but this time it appears the US is intervening in Israeli politics. The pact is being negotiated with Netanyahu just after he has failed to form a government after two elections. The Trump administration has made it clear that it prefers Netanyahu over his primary rival Benny Gantz. Ganz on his part has made it clear he opposes the deal being negotiated.

Netanyahu noted that Ganz and his party were opposed to the deal but said:“We will do it with full cooperation with the IDF and security forces and ensure total freedom of action for the US and the IDF.” Relevant officials in Israel and the US have reviewed a draft of the agreement, which was originally proposed by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. This is one of our important goals for the coming months and we decided to speed up the work on it,” he said. Netanyahu admittted that the lack of regular government caused some difficulties."

Netanyahu trying to use US connections to stay in power

Netanyahu is actually claiming that the deal shows he needs to stay in power because of his unique ties to the US. Details of the pact have not been released beyond the fact that it will commit the US to war to defend Israel. Those who know about the fact say that it in no way restricts Israel's practice of unilaterally attacking targets across the region. Israeli attacks on Syria and Iraq could continue.

The US has historically had good relations with whatever Israeli government came into power but this time clearly favors Netanyahu and the far right. This is in spite of Netanyahu facing charges of bribery, breach of trust, and fraud: "By formally sending the indictment to the legislature, after announcing charges of bribery, breach of trust and fraud on Nov. 21, Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit set the clock ticking on a 30-day period in which Netanyahu can seek parliamentary immunity from prosecution. Such protection seems unlikely, with Israeli politics in disarray after inconclusive elections in April and September and the failure of Netanyahu and his main challenger, Benny Gantz, to secure a ruling majority in the legislature. "

Previously published in the Digital Journal

US Secretary of State says the legality of Israeli settlements in occupied territories should be decided by Israeli courts

(November 18, 2019) US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced that the US now repudiates the 1978 State Department legal opinion that the Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine violate international law.

Israeli settlements

Israeli settlements exist in several areas and are described by Wikipedia as follows: "Israeli settlements are civilian communities inhabited by Israeli citizens, almost exclusively of Jewish ethnicity,[1][2] built on lands occupied by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War.[3] Israeli settlements currently exist in the Palestinian territory of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and in the Syrian territory of the Golan Heights, and had previously existed within the Egyptian territory of the Sinai Peninsula, and within the Palestinian territory of the Gaza Strip; however, Israel evacuated and dismantled the 18 Sinai settlements following the 1979 Egypt–Israel peace agreement and all of the 21 settlements in the Gaza Strip, along with four in the West Bank, in 2005 as part of its unilateral disengagement from Gaza.[4] The international community considers the settlements to be illegal under international law,[5] and the United Nations has repeatedly upheld the view that Israel's construction of settlements constitutes a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention."

The fourth Geneva Convention explicitly bars occupying powers from transferring its own civilian population into an occupied territory. This is exactly what Israel has done.

Pompeo's position

Pompeo says that the US position is based on "unique facts". While Pompeo claims that the US is not trying to reinterpret international law the State Dept. will now argue that international law does not advance the cause of peace and should therefore be ignored. The unique facts appear to be that the US is a firm and constant supporter of Israeli positions even when they violate international law. The peace that ignoring the law is supposed to bring is the transfer of occupied land to Israeli settlers. Paying attention to international law would provide justification for resisting the spread of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories.

Pompeo argues that any legal questions on Israel building settlements in occupied Palestine should be handled by Israeli courts. A recent Haaretz article elaborates on Pompeo's position: "The U.S. would not be taking a view on the legal status of any specific settlement, the American top diplomat said, leaving that task to the Israeli judicial system. The Israeli court system accepts challenges to the legality of some settlements over others and is therefore best placed to decide, Pompeo said, "the U.S. will respect decisions on the subject made by Israeli courts.""

In other words the decisions of the occupier's courts and not any regard for international law will govern whether a settlement is legal. The US position is just to accept whatever Israeli courts decide. No doubt this is supposed to be a case of the US ignoring international law in the interests of peace when actually it is in the interests of Israel and against the interests of Palestinians.

The US move will no doubt encourage Israel to build more settlements and block any attempts to create a Palestinian state that could perhaps stop such settlement.

Netanyahu cheers on the Trump administration

Not surprisingly Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had kinds words for the decision and the Trump administration: "Netanyahu echoed Pompeo’s words, saying “The Trump Administration policy is also correct in stating that those who have categorically denied any legal basis for the settlements not only deny truth, history and the reality on the ground, they also set back the cause of peace, which can only be achieved through direct negotiations between the parties.“Israel remains ready and willing to conduct peace negotiations with the Palestinians regarding all final status issues in an effort to achieve a durable peace but will continue to reject all arguments regarding the illegality of the settlements.”"

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Pompeo promises Afghan troop numbers will be reduced by 2020 election

(July 30) Mike Pompeo US Secretary of State confirmed Monday that the Trump administration plans to reduce the number of US ground troops in Afghanistan before the 2020 election. However the timing and size of the reduction are not yet settled.

If there is an Afghan peace deal all US troops will no doubt be withdrawn.

The Pompeo announcement is odd in that there are hopes for an Afghan peace deal by September. A condition for any deal with the Taliban is that all US and allied troops withdraw from Afghanistan. A reduction in troops by the 2020 election would seem to imply that US troops would still be there but the numbers would be reduced. If there is a peace agreement one would expect that they would all be withdrawn.

The peace process appears to be going well: "The broad basis for the deal is the US withdrawing from Afghanistan and the Taliban agreeing to keep ISIS and al-Qaeda out of the country. A power-sharing agreement between the Afghan government and Taliban, which is likely to be a top priority. There has been hope for some time that the deal could be reached before Afghanistan’s September election. It seems possible that such a deal could still be reached in that time-frame."

US ended combat mission in 2014

Although the US ended its combat mission in Afghanistan in 2014 still about 14,000 US troops remain in the region providing training and air support.

Pompeo said that the reduction would apply to other countries forces as well: "End the endless wars, draw down, reduced. We hope that overall the need for combat forces in the region is reduced. It won't just be us."

The announcement brings into question peace talks with the Taliban

Pompeo claims President Trump made the decision to reduce troops and that he was unambiguous to have the number of troops cut before the election. He said also he wanted the overall need for troops in the region to be reduced and he claimed that this could happen. If the peace deal with the Taliban is reached as the parties seem to think is likely there should be no troops at all at least in Afghanistan. If there are still troops there is likely to be no agreement.

The announcement makes little sense in light of the progress in negotiations with the Taliban. The Taliban must be wondering if Trump is really bargaining in good faith. It is strange that the Trump announcement makes no mention at all of the peace negotiations. Perhaps Trump simply means to assure his supporters that he is serious about withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and to shore up his support before elections. He may not have even thought of the ongoing negotiations and what the Taliban might think of his proposals.

The best one could hope for is that the Taliban ignore what Trump has said and just write his announcement off as part of his campaign for re-election. Trump would have been better off if he had praised the progress of negotiations and suggested that all US troops might soon be out of Afghanistan.

Previously published in the Digital Journal