Units of Haftar's Libyan National Army moving towards Sirte to attack the Islamic State

The Libya Herald reports that two groups from the Libyan National Army (LNA) are moving towards the Islamic State (IS) stronghold of Sirte from both the southwest and the east.

From the west a Misratan brigade is moving eastwards towards the 200 kilometer long stretch along the coast controlled by IS. An army source told the Herald that more than a thousand men had left Ghabghab, which is the main army base at Marj, the headquarters of commander-in-chief Khalifa Haftar. The group was said to be heading for Sirte. The group probably is using some of the many vehicles and ammunition that Haftar recently received.

Colonel Idris Madi, is also said to be moving towards Islamic State territory from the south-west. He is said to be accompanied by Colonel Mohamed Nail, commander of the 241 brigade as well as Colonel Ali Al-Tabawey who commands the Tebu 25 Brigade. The latter unit already has fought IS in Benghazi. and other places. From the west in areas under the control of the GNA government forces from the city Military Council are gathering before heading east towards Sirte. A Facebook entry said: "Misrata Military Council deploys troops in Abu Grain, some 138km west of ISIS-held city of Sirte." It is not clear if there is any coordination of the Misrata movements with those of the LNA.

The Herald reports that Ibrahim Jadhran, a Haftar opponent, will not interfere with the advance of the army. His tribe said they will help move the army units east. Jadhran supports the GNA unlike Haftar. There is at least one tweet reporting Jadhran has been fired and a new head of the Petroleum Forces Guards (PFG) appointed by the Al-Thinni government: "Eastern government (Thini) sack Ibrahim Jathran and name a new commander for Oil Facilities Guard." This probably means that there will be no cooperation with the GNA government in the export of oil.

Earlier, the president of the State Council, Swehli, asked the GNA Presidential Council to attack the Islamic State. The State Council is composed of former members of the General National Congress many of whom oppose Haftar. The Council probably wants the GNA government to take over the area. If the LNA takes over the territory it will be no doubt be ruled by the HoR which does not recognize the GNA as yet. The HoR is supposed to be the legislature of the GNA but until it gives a vote of confidence in the GNA and accepts the LPA it is a separate government. The head of the UN mission in Libya, Martin Kobler, has not given any indication yet when and where the HoR is to meet next to try and vote on the GNA. Every attempt at a vote so far has either lacked a quorum or been disrupted. While a majority are said to support the GNA it is only on condition that General Haftar keep his job and that is in contradiction of section 8 of the Libyan Political Agreement.

US marines attempting to negotiate with Marjah area elders

As this article points out the area is still not pacified and it would seem that the Taliban is still embedded in the area and harassing the marines. The citizens themselves are upset at the numerous checkpoints. All of this is going to require plenty of personnel and even more money. The money could very well end up in Taliban coffers as well.

US Marines offer war or peace to Afghan elders

by Karim Talbi


SISTANI, Afghanistan (AFP) – The tribal elders gathered in the desert outside Marjah, the frontline of the US-led battle in southern Afghanistan to provide services and security after years of Taliban control.
Around 20 sat in a circle, waiting for Lieutenant Colonel Brian Christmas, US Marine commander in northern Marjah who has -- so far -- kept American troops out of the small village of Sistani to the northwest.
Nearly two months after US Marines led what was billed the biggest offensive against the Taliban in more than eight years of war, troops still come under daily fire from insurgents and bombs are still exploding.
Four recent bomb attacks wounded at least nine US or Afghan service personnel and clashes between Marines and insurgents are frequent.
When the Americans reached Sistani, they encountered no Taliban and no fighting, so they agreed to an elders' request not to patrol the village.
But intelligence reports suggest that fighters increasingly use Sistani as a rear base, building IEDs and infiltrating Marjah to attack Marines then slipping back to hide out of reach.
"There are Taliban among you. There are Taliban sitting here. I know it. I encouraged it. And it is good," Christmas tells the group.
In the second row, where Christmas thinks the Taliban are sitting, men look away or finger their prayer beads.
"Not all Taliban are bad. Some have been influenced by foreigners, from Iran or Pakistan. But now Taliban should lay down their weapons," he says.
Although providing reconstruction and services to communities is integral to the new US strategy to quell the Afghan conflict and allow American forces to start leaving in mid-2011, efforts remain tentative.
"As long as there is peace in Sistani, ANA (Afghan National Army) and Marines will stay outside and life can get better," Christmas says.
He recalls how a US Marine was wounded when a bomb hidden in a goat carcass exploded while being transported by a donkey.
"It's up to you to decide what you want," he says -- put simply it's a choice between American guns or American resources.
The aid on offer is simple in this desperately poor and deeply conservative rural backwater rising out of the desert: wells, schools and mosques.
Elders say there are no government schools, only 46 mosques in the district of Sistani, some of which operate madrassas offering basic education.
Many boys don't go to school because outlying mudbrick homes are too far from the nearest madrassa.
Trial elders say they are worried about vehicles being searched at checkpoints on the outskirts of Sistani.
"Sometimes it takes two hours to get through," complains one Afghan with a long black beard.
Searches will continue, Christmas says, but he also promised that Afghans will soon have identity cards, which will ease the Marines' work.
"The average search time is 18 minutes. We are getting better," he says.
The tribal elders clamour for schools, school supplies and dozens of wells.
"We'll start by providing wells to the bazaar, because it's for community use. Then we'll move to individuals," Christmas says.
The tribesmen say they have six teachers and "one or two" doctors. Sistani is even poorer than Marjah because the desert cannot support the poppy that earns many southern Afghan farmers a basic subsistence.
"We want six small schools," pipes up one Afghan.
"Ok. Tell me where and we'll build them," said Christmas. "How many school teachers do you have? We can build schools and pay school teachers."
The Americans promise to return again with a map to work out where Afghans want to put wells, schools and mosques. They say residents of Sistani can work on the most urgent construction projects -- hired and paid by the Marines.
An explosion blasts through the desert in the distance. No one reacts.
The shura finishes with a prayer. Everyone, Marines included, bow their heads and hold out their palms, Muslim-style towards the sky.
The Afghans then bid farewell and disperse.
"Now we have to wait," concludes Christmas.

Current Offensive Just First Step in Afghanistan

It is taking quite a while just to occupy all of Marja let alone set up some stable local government. The idea that the Afghan police can keep order is surely fantasy. They are often corrupt and hated by the local population. The local population may want the Taliban back and NATO out as the lesser of two evils. This is how the Taliban took control in the first place not because they were liked but because they could provide some peace and security. We will have to see but I expect that there will be continued harassment of NATO or Afghan authorities and many civilian deaths.
As this article points out Marjah is just the first step. It will be just the first of many drives in which there will be significant casualties for the US and other NATO allies. As the fall of the Dutch government shows, in many countries the Afghan mission is a death knell for governments that support the mission.
Many commentators have pointed out that the Afghan forces are not first and foremost in this mission. It is the US marines who are basically running the show.


baltimoresun.com
Current Offensive Just First Step in Afghanistan
Julian E. Barnes

Reporting from Washington


The current offensive in Marja is a critical stepping stone for what is likely the most important fight of the Afghan surge in the coming months: securing Kandahar, the spiritual home of the Taliban and the most important city in southern Afghanistan, according to defense officials and analysts.

The military is using the Marja offensive to destroy an important Taliban safe haven, but also to test a strategy that emphasizes strong partnership with Afghan security forces and security for Afghan civilians. And some of the same techniques will be used in future offenses like securing Kandahar.

Defense officials are understandably reluctant to speak in much depth about their plans for follow-on offensives, but there is no doubt that Kandahar will be the military's primary objective this year.

"Kandahar remains the prize for the Taliban," said a senior military official. "So if we do anything in the future, clearly this southern capital has to be in our plans somewhere."

Military officials argue they need to wrest Kandahar from the influence of the Taliban—or more precisely help the Afghan government take control.

"We must turn Kandahar into a city that thrives economically and make it a place where the people of the city and the surrounding districts feel confident in their government and not afraid of the Taliban," said the senior military official.

Analysts say the U.S. is likely to begin stepping up operations around Kandahar in earnest by the spring or early summer. But before the military can make that push it must eliminate the safe havens in neighboring Helmand province including, most importantly, Marja.

Insurgents have operated relatively unchallenged for years in Marja, which has developed into a key command and control center for Taliban fighters. It also became a refuge for Taliban militants in Helmand province and other parts of southern Afghanistan.

"Kandahar city is eventually the key place you are going to want to control," said Jeffrey Dressler, a military analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, a non-partisan think tank in Washington. "But you can't do that having a sanctuary for the Taliban in Helmand."

Marja is a critical test for the commander of allied forces, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal's, new strategy. The military is seeking to break militants' hold on Marja by making the population feel secure enough to stand up to the Taliban. Defense officials say what really must work with the Marja offensive—in large part because it will be even more important in Kandahar—is the partnership with the Afghan government.

Senior U.S. commanders have concluded that they have done a poor job in the past involving the Afghan government and forces in operations. That has resulted in half-hearted Afghan support for initiatives, or even actively opposing them. Although the Afghan forces on the ground in Marja have focused on searching houses, military officials insist the Afghan involvement is real and not window dressing. Defense officials have repeatedly highlighted the role of President Hamid Karzai, local officials and Afghan commanders in shaping the operations plans.

"This war is about getting the Afghans to buy-in to everything we believe needs to happen said the senior officer. "In fact, if they don't believe something should happen, we probably won't do it."

Some analysts believe the future offensive in Kandahar will look different than the battle underway in Marja. The two cities are very different. Marja is a relatively small agricultural center of 85,000 people, crisscrossed with agricultural canals. Kandahar is a city of more than 450,000 people, and the most important population center in southern Afghanistan.

And the Kandahar operation may not involve a large U.S. troop presence inside the city. Instead, the military is more likely to focus on controlling access routes to the city and establishing a robust presence in the "belts" around Kandahar. Such a strategy was developed and used successfully to help secure Baghdad during the Afghan surge.

Mark Moyar, a professor at the Marine Corps University, said because allied troops are already in Kandahar, an offensive there will lack the drama of the current attack on Marja.

"It won't get the hype," Moyar said. "But it is the spiritual home of the Taliban and we have to solidify our hold there."

The White House has scheduled a formal review of its Afghan strategy for the end of this year and military officials believe that they need to have begun to turn the tide of the war and show real progress by then.

Destroying the Taliban's control of the area around Kandahar and allowing the Afghan government to exert more control over the city is critical to that goal, according to defense officials and analysts.

Paired together, officers and analysts said, the success of two offensives could determine the success of the entire Afghanistan strategy.

"Kandahar and Helmand," Moyar said, "will be the two most important places for 2010."

Julian.Barnes@latimes.com

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