Unlilely any third-party candidate will make it into US presidential debates

The threshold of support for being included in national presidential debates has been set by the Commission on Presidential Debates at 15 percent.

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Beyond the two major U.S. parties, the contenders for president are Jill Stein of the Green Party and Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party. Stein is far below the threshold level and appears to have almost no chance of joining the debates. The highest Stein has polled so far is seven percent in a June 2016 poll. A CNN poll on August 1st showed that 13 percent of Bernie Sanders' supporters would vote for Stein, but 10 percent would vote for Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate. Bernie Sanders has thrown his support behind Hillary Clinton the Democratic candidate for president. Between the periods of June and August of 2016, in a four way race between Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein, Stein's support has ranged from just 2.5 percent to 4.8 percent. As an election draws closer support for third party candidates tends to decline.

Gary Johnson is better known than Stein in that he served as Governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003 as a Republican. After withdrawing as candidate for the Republican Party nomination for president in 2012, he ran for the Libertarian party. Johnson concedes that extraordinary things need to happen for him to win a debate slot but his strategists also point out that a large number of Americans are unhappy with both Clinton and Trump as candidates. To win a slot would be a historic event as no third party candidate has managed to reach the 15 percent threshold since the Commission set the bar in the 2000 campaign. The Commission is a private group not accountable to the public in any way. While third parties oppose the bar as being much too high, supporters argue that a candidate should be able to prove that he or she represents a significant percentage of voters in order to qualify for such advantageous free air time that may be crucial in the race for the presidency. However, the high bar is just one more hurdle in a political system that is designed to work against third parties. Not only is campaigning very expensive, third parties only rarely receive coverage and discussion of issues is framed as if it is only the Republicans and Democrats count.

In the past, third parties often complained that many polls only cover the two main parties. However this time a number of significant polls include both Stein and Johnson. It is difficult to get 15 percent support unless there are polls measuring your support. Three pollsters including CNN are doing trial polls with the four main contenders. CBS/ New York Times and Fox News are doing three-way polls leaving out Stein. However, Fox News has announced it will include Stein in future polls. This will mean that four pollsters will be covering support for both Stein and Johnson as well as Trump and Clinton.

The presence of Stein in the polls may hurt Johnson's chances of reaching 15 percent support. When Stein is left out of the polls Johnson hit 12 percent in the latest Fox News and CBS/New York Times polls. However in the three recent polls in which Stein is included, Johnson comes in at just eight, nine and 10 while Stein averages five. Stein receives enough support to spoil any chance that Johnson has of joining the debates. While both Stein and Johnson rail against Trump and Clinton in the search for support, it would seem that Johnson also is being hurt by Stein.

Both Johnson and Stein are after the anti-establishment vote. Both draw from independents with a recent CNN poll showing Johnson winning 16 percent of their vote and Stein 8 percent. Johnson receives seven percent of the vote of disaffected Republicans while Stein gets three percent. Even with disaffected Democrats Johnson gets 3 percent with only two percent going to Stein. Johnson has only about a month to reach the threshold.

A Politico article points out that Johnson faces a dilemma as he needs to gain more of the left-wing anti-Hillary vote and those who want libertarian, free-market, anti-Trump policies. At present his message seems to be not at all ideological but just to "throw the bums out". In a recent statement he says: “We may never agree on all the small things, but let’s agree on the big thing: both parties have blown it … Working together we’ll find fair sensible and honest solutions….” The article suggests he could aim directly at Stein's support by pointing out that Stein will not get into the debates whereas he could with help. However, it is unlikely that there will be much support for helping Johnson get in the debates from the Greens even though he can make reference to common ground such as opposition to drone strikes and the drug war. Johnson could use a similar tactic to appeal to the right saying:“The truth is Trump is not a conservative, and he’s not going to win. He opposes free trade, rejects entitlement reform and supports budget-busting stimulus. Give me a shot to beat her. If you stand with me, I will be the only one on the main stage defending the Trans-Pacific Partnership, making the case for raising the retirement age and pledging to balance the budget, without tax increases.”While these appear sensible strategies, they will probably not be enough to swing significant support to Johnson so that he will be able to enter the debates. Johnson has campaigned as if he were the only third party candidate. With Stein now appearing in the polls, and a factor in keeping him from the 15 percent bar, he may be forced to deal with her as an opponent at least tactically.

Jill Stein of the Green Party faces an uphill battle in the race for the US presidency

The Green Party in the U.S. is to hold its nominating convention for president August 6 and 7th in Houston, Texas. The convention is expected to nominate Jill Stein as its presidential candidate.

The party has a new unofficial slogan: "Jill not Hill". While the party is said to be getting more media coverage that any Green Candidate since 2000 when Ralph Nader ran for the Greens, it is not very much. Media coverage is overwhelmingly on Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate and Jill Stein are rarely mentioned. However she will have a prime time town hall on CNN August 17. This event will be helpful for Stein who is the least well known of the two main third party candidates. Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate is a former governor of New Mexico.

Stein had hoped that she could reach out to Ohio Senator Nina Turner as a vice-presidential running mate but was turned down. Instead, she chose left-wing activist Ajamu Baraka. Stein also failed to get a bounce in the polls from the Democratic Convention when Sanders threw his support behind Hillary Clinton. In spite of showing up at rallies hoping to attract some Sanders' supporters and even getting the help of Sanders supporter Cornel West there was little movement in her polls before and after the convention.

According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll Steins' support dropped from six to five percent after the convention. A CNN poll had her edging up from three to five percent. A McClatchy/Marist poll showed her moving from five to six percent. Among supporters of Sanders Clinton's share rose from 57 to 69 percent in the CNN poll while in the McClatchy-Marist poll there was a jump from 57 to 65. There was no movement in Stein's share which remained at 13 percent. Gary Johnson the libertarian is taking ten percent of Sanders' supporters votes. He is also getting more media attention than Stein.

David Weigel of the Washington Post claims that many leftists over thirty are still worried about voting for the Green Party since Ralph Nader's run in 2000 is blamed for helping elect George Bush. They do not want to end up helping elect Trump. Research shows that voters are more likely to vote for a third party in areas where it is clear that one or the other of the main parties will win even if many do vote for a third party.

The Green Party is hoping that it can win at least five percent of the popular vote so that it will qualify for public campaign funds that party officials estimate would total more than $10 million dollars. While Stein predicts she will be on the ballot in 46 states, others were more pessimistic. Ballot Access News Publisher, Richard Wingernotes that Stein failed to meet requirements in Indiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Dakota. The percentages at present are just sufficient for Stein to qualify but third party candidates often have peak support early and many appear to decide to vote for one of the two major parties as the election approaches nearer. In his run Nader peaked at six to eight percent support but ended up with only 2.74 percent in the actual election.

Stein does not have the cash to buy many ads and media coverage nor does she have the celebrity status of Trump who gets plenty of free publicity even though much of it is negative. Stein has purchased $575,000 in broadcast and cable TV time and has raised more than in her entire 2012 campaign. However, Clinton has raised more than $250 million.

Stein has flirted with the type of Trump tactic of saying something that will get people upset and thus gain him publicity, but it backfired. On Mother's Day she tweeted: “I agree w/ Hillary, it’s time to elect a woman for President. But I want that President to reflect the values of being a mother.” It worked in that she got an immediatestrong backlash from feminists. However, her immediate reaction was to be defensive and apologize not a Trump-type tactic at all. She said that she was not criticizing Hillary as a mother but as a war-monger.

Stein is not given to passionate radical outbursts. Perhaps this can be left to her team mate Baraka who criticized the family of Muhammed Ali for inviting "Bill Clinton, the rapist and petty opportunist politician" to deliver the eulogy. While some Republicans will support Stein rather than Trump, Clinton or Johnson, they are not likely to change her percentage support significantly. It remains to be seen if Stein will be able to gain enough support to qualify for public funds a result that could help the party survive and build for the next contest.