Maliki's cabinet shuffle and Al Sadr

This is exercerpted from Juan Cole's Website.
According to a commentator there are provisions to replace a member of parliament. The faction from which the member comes appoints a replacement. If this is true then al Maliki will not be able to push through the oil law simply by locking up Sadrists and others who oppose the law unless he can do that within the time frame in which the missing MPs must be replaced. In any event I expect that reaction to jailing MPs or even dismissing cabinet members may be such that Maliki's government will fall anyway.

Parliamentarians from the Sadr Bloc vowed that they would resist Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's plans to dismiss 5 out of 6 cabinet ministers from their party. The Sadrists have 32 seats in the Iraqi legislature, and their support was key to the election of al-Maliki last spring.

KarbalaNews.net reports in Arabic that al-Maliki gave an interview in which he said that high judicial authorities are preparing indictments against members of parliament for involvement in militia and death squad activity. Maybe al-Maliki thinks he does not need the Sadrist MPs because so many of them will soon be in prison.

Indeed, the scale of the indictments against sitting Iraqi representatives and officials hinted at by al-Maliki suggests a judicial coup.

Given that Sunni and Sadrist MPs have been loudest in denouncing the new oil law, if large numbers of them were incarcerated, it would also make it easier for al-Maliki to get the legislation enacted.

There are no mechanisms for by-elections to the Iraqi parliament to my knowledge, so that the parliamentarians that are arrested will likely not be replaced until late 2009. The arrests could dramatically alter the relative proportion of representatives of various communities. No Kurds will be arrested, since their Peshmerga militia has been legalized, so their bloc will be strengthen

al-Sadr will not give up cabinet posts

al Maliki could very well destroy his government in reshuffling. If Sadr withdraws his support al Maliki's govt. itself could be replaced. No doubt the US and many opponents of Maliki in Iraq would not regard this as necessarily bad.


Sadr movement vows not to give up posts unless others in coalition do
The Associated PressPublished: March 5, 2007


BAGHDAD, Iraq: Followers of an anti-American Shiite cleric warned Monday they will not relinquish their Cabinet posts unless other members of the ruling coalition do the same, setting the stage for a major political battle as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki prepares to reshuffle his administration.

Al-Maliki told The Associated Press on Saturday that he would reshuffle his Cabinet within two weeks. He did not say how many posts would be changed.

But an adviser to the prime minister said 10 ministers would be replaced. They include five of the six ministers loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The adviser spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not supposed to release the information.

The Sunni bloc would lose two ministries and one deputy prime minister. The secular group led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi would give up two positions, the adviser said.

But the al-Sadr faction would take the biggest hit under the adviser's formula. Shiite ministers from other factions would remain in their jobs.

"We will not give up our share and any of our ministerial posts under any circumstances unless all other blocs are subjected to the same procedure," Saleh al-Ukaili, head of Sadrist faction in parliament, said.

Al-Ukaili said his group was especially keen to retain control of the Ministry of Health and if the others in the coalition didn't like the current management, "then we are ready to discuss another name with the prime Minster."

"But we are not ready to give up one of the six ministerial posts," he said.

Al-Sadr also controls 30 of the 275 parliament seats and commands the Mahdi Army militia, making him a major player in the Shiite bloc. His ties to al-Maliki have been long cited as the reason behind the government's reluctance to dismantle the militias, a major U.S. demand.

Under intense pressure from the U.S., al-Maliki convinced the young cleric to lower his militia's profile in Baghdad's streets, and a U.S.-Iraqi force entered his stronghold Sadr City on Sunday without resistance.

The prospect of losing his militia base and his foothold in government could prompt al-Sadr into reconsidering his tacit support for the Baghdad security operation, which began last month.