Russia and Turkey agree to a ceasefire in the Syrian province of Idlib

(March 5) Russia and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib that will begin at midnight local time. The ceasefire may be just in time to avoid escalation of conflict in the province into a major conflict.

The agreement

As well as the ceasefire, Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan agreed to establish a security corridot and joint patrols. The agreement comes after last month 36 soldiers were killed in a Syrian offensive to regain control of the province with the help of Russian air cover. Turkey reacted by sending in more troops and equipment and launching a counter-offensive. There were fears of an escalating military conflict involving direct clashes between Turkey and Russia. The agreement appears to have avoided that for the present at least. The agreement was arrived at after about six hours of talks in Moscow.

The ceasefire will be along the entire line of contact between the two opposing forces. There will be a security corridor that will stretch 6 kilometers north and 6 km south of the key M4 motorway connecting Syrian-held Aleppo with the Latakia region it also holds to the south. The joint patrols will start March 15.

Earlier agreement had been violated

Back in September of 2018 Putin and Erdogan had agreed that Idlib should be turned into a de-escalation zone. The area was to become a buffer zone between the two sides with clear lines of control set out. However, fighting has continued. However, fighting continued in the area and terms of the agreement were often violated. Idlib province is mostly controlled by jihadist rebels with connections to Al Qaeda but Turkey has strongly supported them. Russia has claimed that Turkish listening posts and fortified rebel positions have virtually merged. This may explain how Turkish forces suffered casualties.

Erdogan warns of response to any attack by Syria

Erdogan says that Turkey reserved the right to retaliate with all its strength against any attack by Syrian forces. However, it is not clear that Assad has given up the idea of recovering all of Idlib which is part of Syria. Russia may put pressure on Assad not to do so even though his offensive so far has been quite successful. For now Assad may be satisfied that he can retain what he has captured up to now. Erdogan had demanded Syria withdraw to the border of the province by the end of February and provided extensive support for a rebel counter-offensive. The deal with Russia puts an end to any further retaliation against Assad.

Putin said that he hoped the deal would serve as a good foundation for ending fighting in the Idblib de-escalation zone and end the suffering of the civilian population many of whom have fled the front lines creating a humanitarian crisis.

Questions about the agreement

Given past experience and the aims of the two conflicting parties it is questionable whether the truce will hold very long. Assad is bound and determined that he retake all of Syria including Idlib and drive out the jihadist rebels whose last refuge is the province. Turkey for its part is determined to ensure that the rebels it supports remain in Idlib along with Turkish troops to defend them. He has demanded that Assad withdraw and tried to advance with a counter-offensive. This resulted in Turkish casualties and the possibility of direct conflict with Russia. The ceasefire seems far from any permanent solution given the aims of the conflicting parties.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Large numbers of Turkish troops and equipment entered Idlib province Syria in late February

(February 23) According to the Syrian Observatory for Human rights just in the past 19 days 2,700 Turkish military vehicles have gone into Syria along with 7,400 troops during the same time period. On Saturday alone a Turkish convoy of 80 vehicles entered Idlib.

Turkey wants to reverse recent gains by Assad forces

Recently the Syrian army has made significant territorial gains in Idlib province and also the Aleppo area as noted in a recent article.

Turkish president Recep Erdogan has been demanding that the Syrian army withdraw from territory it has recently recovered. In a recent speech on TV in Istanbul Erodgan said: "Until the regime’s [Syrian government] forces pull out beyond the borders [of the Idlib de-escalation zone] outlined in the Sochi agreement, the problem will not be solved. If they do not leave, we will do this work without waiting until the end of February."

Erdogan has warned that he would retaliate vigorously if any Turkish troops were killed as the Syrian advance supported by Russian air operations. He has retaliated and there are dangers of the war spreading and intensifying as the Turks come into direct conflict with the Russians as well as the Syrian army. The Turks seem determined to provide support for the remaining rebels who are bunched up in the Idlib governorate their last major stronghold. The main group in control of much of the rebel area is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HYT) linked to Al-Qaeda.

Turks say they are peacekeepers but some call it an invasion

While the Turks consider their entrance into Syria a peacekeeping mission, Syria and its supporters could see it as an outright invasion to help the radical rebel groups from being defeated and stop Syria from retaking its territory. This is the second Turkish incursion into Syria in the past several months. A number of troops were sent to Kurdish territory to create a buffer safe zone along the border with Turkey.

In other Syria news, the Israelis confirmed an air attack on Damascus. According to a war monitor six people were killed in the attack. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) confirmed Monday that two of its members were killed in the Israeli raid on Damascus Sunday night.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Turkey claims retaliatory attacks kill 50 Syrian soldiers.

(February 20) Clashes in Syria's Idlib Province have increased Thursday as Turkish forces attacked Syrian Army forces. The Turks claim to have killed over 50 Syrian soldiers. Turkish officials said their attacks were in retaliation for Syria's killing of two soldiers.

Earlier in February 13 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syrian attacks. Erdogan had said at the time that Turkish forces would strike anywhere in Syria should another soldier be hurt. Fahtrettin Altun the Turkish Communications Director said the Turkish soldiers were in Idlib to "establish peace and manage humanitarian aid operations".

The Turkish government claimed that five tanks, two armoured personnel carriers, two armoured trucks and one howitzer were also destroyed in the retaliatory attacks.

Turkish-backed rebels involved in the attacks

Syria requested help and Russia ultimately sent in warplanes that stopped the fights. Russia warned Turkey to cease its actions. Turkish-backed rebels were involved in the attacks on the Syrians and were supported by Turkish artillery. The main group of Jihadists in control in Idlib Governorate is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who are linked to Al-Qaeda.

The Russian counter attack

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that its air forces launched strikes to repel the attack by Turkey-backed rebels to counter the offensive of the Syrians and retaliate for the killing of Turkish soldiers. They rebels sought to break through Syria's defensive lines. The rebels launched a massive offensive southeast of Idlib city according to the Russian Reconciliation Center in Libya using many armoured vehicles. Turkish artillery helped the rebels break through Syrian defenses in some areas.

The Russian Defense Ministry says its Air Force launched strikes to repel a militant offensive against the Syrian Army in Idlib, which had sought to breach the government forces’ defensive lines with Turkey’s backing. However, the Russian bombing destroyed considerable Turkish equipment and when Russia contacted Ankara the artillery barrage stopped.

The clashes may not be over

Russia describes the situation as a worst case scenario and demanded that Turkey cease backing terrorist groups in Syria. However, Turkey has demanded that Syrian forces withdraw from Idlib. Erdogan said on TV last Saturday: "Until the regime’s [Syrian government] forces pull out beyond the borders [of the Idlib de-escalation zone] outlined in the Sochi agreement, the problem will not be solved. If they do not leave, we will do this work without waiting until the end of February." In effect Turkey is demanding that Syria allow Jihadist rebels to rule Idlib Governorate.

However, Assad forces have been launching attacks which have regained considerable territory both inside and outside Idlib. The Syrian government now controls the key M5 highway linking Damascus and Aleppo.

Previously published in the Digital Journal