After four years in power el-Sisi's Egypt is in worse shape than before he took over

Four years after the Egyptian military overthrew the democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, the country is in sad shape both socially and economically..

General Abdel el-Sisi announced the overthrow on state television on July 3rd 2013. He suspended the constitution and installed an interim government. There had been huge demonstrations against the Morsi government over fears that it was becoming increasingly authoritarian. El-Sisi was later elected president in May of 2014 with 97 per cent of the vote. There was only one other candidate. Morsi was the second Egyptian leader deposed in just over two years after an uprising overthrew the thirty-year old rule of military leader Hosni Mubarak. Now Mubarak is released from jail while Morsi continues to languish in jail. Mubarak was released in March of this year after six years in prison. On the other hand, Morsi remains in prison apparently in poor health and without proper medical attention according to a recent article. Morsi is suffering from fainting spells and twice fell into a coma.

The overthrow of Morsi created a social and political upheaval that divided the nation and no doubt helped recruit more jihadists committed to use violence against the Egyptian government. After Morsi was removed the interim government cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood and others who mounted large protests against the interim government and el-Sisi. In August of 2013 the army and security forces attacked a demonstration in Rabaa al-Adawiy Square killing up to a thousand protesters. Human Rights Watch describes it as "one of the largest killings of demonstrators in a single day in recent history".

Shortly after Morsi's removal, in August of 2013 the military-backed interim government embarked on a crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood supporters, many of whom who continued to stage counter-protests and express their support for Morsi. As well as the Muslim Brotherhood being declared a terrorist organization and thus unable to participate in presidential elections the following year. Amnesty International had its assets seized, was banned and declared a terrorist organization by the government. Amnesty had issued a statement condemning the mass sentencing of hundreds of supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. Abullah al-Arian of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service in Qatar said: "The violent repression of Morsi's supporters sent a stark message to all Egyptians that under the resurgent authoritarian rule of the Sisi regime: Dissent will not be tolerated. Along with the mass imprisonment of over 50,000 people, this has ensured that opposition to the regime has remained limited in the years since." In 2015 the government adopted a controversial anti-terror bill.

In 2013 the government had already passed a bill placing many restrictions on demonstrations. Student demonstrations were often put down by the government. The government targeted not just former members and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood but any activists opposed to the government. Many who had opposed Morsi now found themselves being arrested by the new el-Sisi government.

The el-Sisi regime was supposed to give rise to stability and prosperity. He adopted some of the type of neo-liberal policies that are favored by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the government was aware that many of the austerity policies favored by such institutions were politically unpalatable. El-Sisi slashed fuel subsidies and raised taxes, to generate long term revenue. He also embarked on some infrastructure projects to boost employment. However, stability has begun to erode and the demands of the IMF for further austerity measures and subsidy reductions for further loans has caused inflation and may even generate social unrest as discussed in a recent Digital Journal article.

Sarah Yerkes, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington said: "Some Egyptians have accepted the return of some of the 'old guard' because they believe that, for all its faults, the Mubarak regime brought them more stability than the Morsi regime. In the long run, this type of thinking is irrational - Mubarak was only able to control Egypt for so long - but in the short run, some people are willing to put up with more repression [and] less freedom in exchange for what they perceive to be greater stability." As James Gelvin, a professor at the University of Los Angeles notes Egypt is much more authoritarian today than under any leader since General Nasser with all opposition virtually outlawed. He said today no one is safe from the government if they oppose it.

Yet, the repression has not resulted in any increased prosperity for most Egyptians. Mark Levine a professor at the University of California said: "With 30-40 percent of the country living on $2 a day or less, there is very little room for manoeuver for them. If the country grinds to a halt with new protests, literally millions of people face financial ruin and even hunger very quickly." While many may not protest for fear of the consequences the situation may be about to boil over. There were many demonstrations against the government when it ceded several islands to Saudi Arabia. Attempts to impose more austerity on the population may also generate spontaneous protests.

Ironically, as Egypt declines domestically it appears to be strengthening relations internationally and to be playing an important role in Libya. Yet Yerkes concludes: "On virtually every indicator, Egypt is worse off today than it was under Mubarak. The security situation is far worse, the economy is worse, the levels of repression are far higher and the ability of the government to deliver basic goods and services has declined." The Arab Spring appears to have transitioned quickly into an Arab Winter in Egypt.

J.P. Morgan CEO letter to shareholders has negative remarks about Arab Spring

The annual report of J.P. Morgan to shareholders can be found here. It is written by Jamie Dimon the chief executive officer (CEO).

Dimon notes the economic uncertainty clouding the economic future. He also notes events that have impeded economic recovery such as the tsunami and earthquake in Japan and the European debt crisis.

However, he also mentions revolutions in the Middle East, the Arab Spring. He speaks of all of these as tragic events and unfortunate setbacks.

Even if one construes Dimon as referring to the Arab Spring events as tragic setbacks this seems unduly negative. While it is true that in purely economic terms such as growth in GDP these did involve lesser growth than might have happened under the regime of Mubarak or in Tunisia, surely the overall political effects were positive enough to outweigh the economic consequences.

Perhaps the Arab Spring caused an unfortunate rise in oil prices as well but this also is hardly reason to describe the changes brought about as unfortunate. Perhaps if democratic change hurts capital then it is a tragic setback. For more see this article.

Mubarak in fanatasy land.

Mubarak is in fantasy land. Imagine he even asks that no external party should intervene between the factions while Abbas cools down! Haha! What of the arming of Fatah by the US and Israel of the release of 250 FATAH prisoners and the release of tax money only to Abbas. What of the recognition given to the new govt. set up by Abbas with Hamas excluded. Get real!


Mubarak predicts Fatah, Hamas will be reconciled
26 Jun 2007 13:23:35 GMT
Source: Reuters
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Background
Israeli-Palestinian conflict
More CAIRO, June 26 (Reuters) - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak predicted on Tuesday that the two main Palestinian factions -- Fatah and Hamas -- would soon patch up their differences through dialogue and said that Egypt was willing to mediate. In an interview with Egyptian state television, Mubarak said repeatedly that the two sides needed a period of calm to come to their senses and resume dialogue.

"I believe that after a period of calm, especially as they had a legislative assembly where they (Hamas) had a majority, an understanding between them is bound to come about," he said.

Asked how long the period of calm should be, he said: "Maybe two weeks, maybe three weeks, maybe one month, until people start to think logically and soundly. In that case they are bound to start a dialogue."

Mubarak's approach was a sharp break with recent Egyptian statements on the fighting in Gaza this month, which ended when Hamas took full control and disarmed Fatah forces there.

Mubarak had called Hamas's action a coup and his government has said that it recognises only Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah as the legitimate Palestinian leader.

But on Tuesday Mubarak said that even if Hamas started the trouble in Gaza, the fighting quickly got out of hand and the Palestinian government made "a big mistake" in losing control.

In a speech to Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian leaders in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday, Mubarak called for immediate dialogue between Palestinians but he did not make clear whether he was talking about Fatah and Hamas.

Asked whether Abbas had backed away from his refusal to have dialogue with Hamas, Mubarak said that Abbas was still tense because he thought there had been a plot to assassinate him.

"Of course he will be tense ... and he won't accept any dialogue, but it needs a period of calm and a return to sense and logic and after the process calms down, then it (dialogue) becomes possible," he said.

Mubarak said no external party should intervene between the Palestinian factions in the meantime. "We have been mediating between the two sides but it needs a period of calm (for mediation to resume)," he said.

He noted that the main Palestinian factions recently came to Cairo for talks with Egypt and he did not indicate any review of the Egyptian government's policy of talking to them all.

The Egyptian president said there was no evidence that Syria or Iran played a part in the events in Gaza and that Egypt was in constant contact with Iran despite not having formal relations.