Trump celebrates Dow Jones breaking 2500 just a he did last year at this time

US president Donald Trump always celebrates when the stock market is doing well so it is not surprising that on Wednesday he tweeted in celebration as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose above the 25,000 mark.

From this January to last January the Dow Jones is now basically flat

On Wednesday the 29th of January 2019 Trump tweeted: "Dow just broke 25,000. Tremendous news! 1:54 PM - 30 Jan"

While this is positive for investors, since the Dow Jones has been doing badly lately, one needs to see how this compares with last year around this time. Investors want their investments to increase in value over time. A look at the history of Trump's tweets shows a forgetful approach to the fluctuations of the Dow Jones over an extended period.

On January 4, 2018 just after Trump signed into law his tax cuts that helped mostly businesses and the wealthy he tweeted: "@realDonaldTrump Dow just crashes through 25,000. Congrats! Big cuts in unnecessary regulations continuing.

9:48 AM - Jan 4, 2018"

Trump tweeted a third time on July 14, 2018 that "The Stock Market hit 25,000" meaning the Dow Jones average. He also said that jobs were at an all-time record and that he had fixed some of the worst trade deals and conditions ever seen by any government.

2018 was a bad year for stocks

The year 2018 was actually the worst year for stocks since 2008, the year of the great recession. While some factors causing the slide were due to Trump, others were not.

The present economic expansion has been continuing for so long, until recently slowing a bit, that many investors have been wondering how long their luck would last. A combination of global and domestic events may have convinced many that as of now things will begin to decline.

Trump's trade war with China is one of their concerns, in that it could have a negative effect on some farmers such as those who grow soybeans and also raise consumer prices. Economic growth has slowed in the EU and is also expected to slow down in China next year. The drama in the UK over Brexit is causing worries as well. Some worry also that the Feds may raise interest rates slowing growth.

As markets dropped during the late fall, Trump stopped talking about it, but talked about such things as low gas prices and low unemployment. As stocks have risen in January, he is back at his old boasting. As usual, he does not place it in context which shows that the stock market actually had a very bad year in 2018.

The issue is also covered on CNN.

Previously published in Digital Journal

Three main US stock indices end September on a positive note

Indices of major exchanges in the U.S. and Canada closed up at the end of September. Several new highs were reached during the month on U.S. exchanges.

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(September 30)In the U.S., the S& P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 all posted record highs on Friday. The S & P 500 closed up 9.30 points or 0.4 percent. This was its 39th record this year. It gained 0.7 percent over the week and 1.9 percent over the entire month of September. Since July it has risen 3.9 percent. It has risen now for eight consecutive quarters.

The Nasdaq rose 42.51 percent or 0.7 percent to 6,495.96. For the week it was up 1.1 percent and for the month just 1 percent but its quarterly gain was 5.8 percent. Its close was another record its 50th this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) rose 23.89 points or 0.1 percent to 22,405.9 just missing a new record by about seven points. Over the week the index rose only a marginal 0.3 percent but over the month it gained 2.1 percent and a significant 4.9 percent over the quarter. The Russell 2000 also closed at a record high for the 21st time this year at 1490.86. It was up 2.08 points or 0.1 percent. It was up 2.8 percent over the week, 6.1 percent over the month, and 5.4 percent over the quarter. The index is of small-cap companies.

Correction time?

Some analysts think that the market may be due or even overdue for a correction. Sean Lynch of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute said: “The fundamental headlines in terms of market weakness don’t seem to be there right now, but valuations look a little stretched and investors may take a pause from the momentum we’ve been seeing... The initial move so far this year has been on pretty good earnings and pretty good fundamentals. However, a lot of stocks have had great runs and look very expensive now.”

He predicted that the S & P 500 could retreat as much as five or six percent over the rest of 2017 before rebounding in 2018. He said small-cap companies were especially risky. Buying interest appeared somewhat subdued on Friday, as most stocks moved a bit higher at the end of the month. Fox news claims that the U.S. dollar is set to break its six-month losing streak.

Trump pushes tax reform

The week was marked by President Trump's announcement of his pro-business tax reform, but it remains to be seen if it can be passed through Congress. Personal income showed an increase of 0.2 percent in August and consumer spending rose a modest 0.1 percent. There may be another increase in interest rates in December. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's term ends in February. President Trump has interviewed several people for the job and could make a decision in the next two or three weeks.

North of the border

Canada's main index, the TSX, also ended the month quite positively as it reached a four-month high on Friday. It posted a 2.8 percent gain for the entire month of September. Phone-maker BlackBerry's gains helped boost the index. For the quarter the index gained three percent. Its September performance was the best since July of 2016. Rising crude oil prices helped energy shares. Bond yields increased as the Bank of Canada raised interest rates for a second time and there are signs that rates may increase in the U.S. soon as well .

Sid Mokhtari of CIBC World Markets said: "A lot of [portfolio] managers want to show that they have good exposure to areas that have worked and are paying good dividends." The TSX closed up 16.69 points or 0.11 percent at 15,634.94. This was its highest close since back on May 8 this year. Canada's GDP was unchanged from last month after eight consecutive months of growth.

Toronto and New York markets set new records again

(February 13) The Toronto stock market rose again today after setting records on Friday. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with U.S. president Donald Trump. They both vowed to strengthen economic ties.

The two issued a joint statement after the meeting saying that the two countries have similar priorities and this included the need to bolster trade. On the issue of modifying NAFTA, Trump said that his bigger concern was Mexico and he was only aiming to "tweak" parts relating to Canada in order to better facilitate cross-border trade. There is more than $2 billion in trade between the two countries each day.

Canadian markets strategist Craig Fehr said that the two leaders appeared to be on the same page on a number of issues including the mutual advantages of increasing trade between the two countries. Fehr said:"For those looking at it from a Canadian perspective, this meeting can perhaps be viewed as a sigh of relief — particularly when you compare it to what the rhetoric was on the (Trump) campaign trail where it was much more positioned as NAFTA being unilaterally a bad deal. This is a confirmation that campaign rhetoric was just that, and that the actual execution of any trade agreements or renegotiations are going to be far less harsh than what the original assertions may have suggested."

The Toronto stock market index the S&P/TSX set another record today following on a record close on Friday. It was up at the close to 15,756.58, up 27.46 points. Gains in metals are retail stocks more than offset some losses in the gold and energy sectors. New records were set for the third consecutive session in New York indices. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 142.79 points at 20,412.16, the S&P 500 was ahead 12.15 points at 2,328.25, and the Nasdaq composite rose 29.83 points to 5,763.96.

Fehr said that although Trump's meeting with Trudeau appeared to be one of the most successful he has had with leaders, it is still too early to know what will happen with NAFTA renegotiation:"It is too early. The press conference and the meeting is the first step in a long process of ultimately reaching trade deals over long periods of time that will be beneficial to both countries. We can't take today's meeting as the end point. It's probably more of a starting point, but it's a pretty good start in terms of setting the right tone for what a mutually beneficial relationship can and should be moving forward."Both oil and gas prices fell as did gold.

There are signs that might worry Trump. Many countries with large treasury holdings such as Japan are getting rid of them in large quantities. Supposedly, the world's safest debt market is being seen as less of a sure thing.

An article in BNN surveys CEO's of different companies on the situation. Paul Colborn, President and CEO of Surge Energy had no concern about a possible tax on goods coming from Canada: “I think [a possible border tax] is a real red herring. When I look at it, I think why would they approve the [Keystone XL] pipeline and tie in the biggest oil reserves on the planet for security of supply reasons? It makes no sense to me that there would be a big border tax.”

One company CEO Tom Leighton of Akamai Technology reacted negatively to Trump's travel ban: “The travel ban really runs counter to our culture at Akamai. Diversity and inclusion are very important to us. It makes it hard – or impossible – for some of our employees to travel, causing a lot of concern for our employee base and also our customers.”

Michael Decter president and CEO of LDIC Inc. that manages investment portfolios, thought that lower oil prices had produced a more disciplined energy sector and that Trump policies could send stock markets higher: "[Trump] has injected some unusual uncertainty into the business. But I often say to clients, many of whom as Canadians are not very keen on Mr. Trump as President of the United States, is that he may not be good for the world but he may be very good for the stock market and your portfolio. He is a very strongly pro-business president, he has a very pro-business cabinet." Decter held positions in both the Manitoba and Ontario New Democratic Party(NDP) governments.

Dow Jones average breaks through record 20,000

(January 25) Positive corporate earnings helped raise investor optimism and extend a rally that has seen the US Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJ) climb above 20,000 for the first time ever.

The DJ index of blue chip US stocks reached its second fastest 1,000 point rise in history. The DJ had reached 19,000 on November 22 last year shortly after Donald Trump had become president-elect on November 8. European stocks also jumped but the Mexican peso lost value as Trump unveiled steps that included building a wall on the Mexican border. Oil prices dropped as US stockpiles increased.

Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial Inc. said:“With a swift move towards signing executive orders, coupled with underlying positive economic data, clarity has begun to hit the headlines, and all the U.S. indexes are celebrating.“Clarity is the markets’ oxygen.” No doubt the nature of Trump's decisions helped markets as they included approval of two major pipelines. He also set out possible infrastructure projects and encouragement of auto producers to manufacture in the US.

The DJ had risen 134.64 points from the opening to 20,047. 35 at 11:45 AM. Boeing had the biggest gain of 4.3 percent. The Standard and Poor 500 Index (S&P 500) also jumped 0.6 percent to a record 2,293.68 at the same time. Stocks rose in Europe as well. However, West Texas Intermediate crude dropped below $53 dollars a barrel.

The Toronto Stock Exchange(TSX) hit 15,657.53 points quite close to its September 2014 record of 15,685.13 even though lower gold prices weighed on gold mining company shares. Among the gainers was pipeline stock Trans-Canada Corp. that rose 1.6 percent to an all-time high after Trump signed an executive order putting the Keystone XL pipeline back into play. The market appears to see Trump's policies as pro-growth and pro-business with tax cuts promised.

(January 25) The quite negative Trump policies such as building the wall on the Mexican border and restricting the entrance of people from a number of countries into the US do not seem to counter positive attitudes among investors to Trump policies. Indeed, Trump's anti-environmentalist moves are no doubt thought of as positive for corporate profits. Trump has placed a gag order on several government agencies including the EPA. The EPA has also been asked to freeze all grants, contracts, and other agreements until further notice. Meanwhile Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has applauded Trump's approval of the Keystone XL restoration.

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his move to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement have not caused markets to turn negative. Perhaps investors believe that any new trade agreements Trump negotiates will not be against business interests. Given the make-up of Trump's administration that seems a plausible viewpoint in spite of all Trump's anti-establishment rhetoric.

Dow closes over 19,000 as Trump rally continues

(November 22) The US stock rally evident on Monday continued on Tuesday with the Dow Jones briefly breaking through the 19,000 level for the first time in history.

On Monday all four major US stock indices closed at record highs. The prices of energy stocks rose as investors see OPEC countries finalizing a deal to cut oil production a move that will help support oil prices. The Standard & Poor 500 closed at a record high of 2198.18 rising 16.28 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.9 percent or 47.35 points to close at the all-time high of 5368.86. The Russell 2000 rose half a percentage point or 6.59 points to 1322.23. The Dow Jones Industrial average also gained a half percentage point or 88.76 percent to a record close of 18,956. This is the first time that all four indices set a record in one day since way back on December 31st 1999 according to Ryan Derrick who is the senior market strategist for LPL Financial.

While media coverage of the Trump victory often stresses negative features of his campaign and choices for his government, the establishment as represented in stock market investors, sees his election in positive terms. His promises of pro-growth fiscal policies and tax cuts has resulted in many investors turning bullish about the US economy. The surge is also being bolstered by an anticipated hike in interest rates by the Fed next month.

The possible cut in oil production by OPEC members sent the price of US crude to $47.49 a barrel up almost 4 percent and Brent crude, the international standard, was up over 4 percent to $48.90. However, Quincy Krosby of Prudential Financial claimed that even if a deal does happen it will not have much impact on oil prices: “There’s nothing to suggest the agreement’s going to hold. When all is said and done, supply and demand will ultimately dictate the price.” The US dollar has been rising against many world currencies as investors foresee a Fed interest rate hike in December. The US dollar has risen almost 7 percent against the Japanese yen in the last week, which will help Japanese exporters.

The stock market rally continued into Tuesday morning with the Dow Jones Industrial index hitting an all-time high of 19,013.12 before falling back. As I write this about 11 AM Central Time, the index has fallen back below 19,000 at 18,973.71 but is still up on the day. Added to the tax cuts and infrastructure spending Trump is promising, he is also claiming to introduce simpler regulations in both the banking and the healthcare sectors. Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth located in New York said: "Optimism is returning because of the potential that exists in the form of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending and tax cuts and is renewing confidence on the part of investors and consumers." He noted the rally was broad-based, a positive sign for markets. The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX rose this morning to 15,085.12 shortly after the opening. Since Trump defeated Hillary Clinton to become president-elect, the Dow Jones has risen almost 4 percent. Shortly after Obama took office the Dow Jones hit a low of about 6,400 and so has almost tripled since then.

Trump's win plus the Republican control of both the Senate and the House appears to be taken as a plus by the market. Trump's policies together with those of the Republicans are considered overall to be business-friendly in spite of the fact that Trump has promised to dump the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) deal as well as renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Joe Granville predicts Dow Jones average to drop 4,000 points in 2012

Joseph Granville at the ripe old age of 89 is still publishing his Granville Market Letter as he has been doing for more than forty years. Bloomberg's television Street Smart interviews him here.

In the interview Granville a technical analyst predicts that the Dow Jones average will drop by 4,000 this year. That is a good round number and gives an average drop of 1,000 per quarter.

More about Granville can be found at this Wikipedia entry. At conferences Granville is famous for his antics. Hulbert Financial Digest ranks his Market Letter poorly and claims that his advice would produce average losses over the past 25 years of more than 20 per cent.

However many people follow Granville still. His technical analysis uses OBV volume (On Balance Volume) to predict prices based upon volume.

A great showman Granville has emerged from a coffin to make his predictions at one investment conference and at another appeared to walk across water in a swimming pool. He has predicted that he will win the Nobel Prize in economics but so far he has been wrong about that! The video is here.

On the basis of trading volumes among other factors Granville predicted the market had peaked last Friday and would begin a decline this week. So far so good at least for Granville's predictions.

Canada: TSX stock market loses 11 per cent for 2011

    The Toronto Stock Exchange lost almost 1500 points during 2011 a drop of 11 per cent from the beginning of the year. The exchange finished the year on a positive note closing up 113.9 points Friday.
    U.S. market fell on Friday but the Dow Jones index was up 640 points or 5.5 per cent for the year. The S and P index was almost flat. The NASDAQ ended down two per cent for the year.
     Gold and metals sub-indexes on the Toronto exchange also posted significant drops. Even though the price of oil rose over the year the energy index also declined. The loonie has risen slightly in relation to the U.S. dollar.