The Philippines: Up the Creek

This is from the Economist. This seems a reasonable summary of recent events except for what Arroyo has taught prospective presidents. The safest way to power is to use feed from the hog trough to feed the hogs who will then make sure that the ballot boxes are filled with the proper swill that will ensure electoral victory. Then you just sit tight and ignore all those who point out any corruption. If possible eliminate the Senate as well.


The Philippines

Up the creek
Mar 6th 2008 | MANILA
From The Economist print edition

A twist to the usual tale of street protests

Reuters

Fascist out, the posters sayON FEBRUARY 29th several thousand anti-government demonstrators gathered in Manila to demand the resignation of President Gloria Arroyo. So far, so usual. But this time, they were joined by two former presidents, Corazon Aquino and Joseph Estrada, who know something about street protests. Mrs Aquino was made president by the “People Power” uprising of 1986; Mr Estrada was deposed by a similar uprising in 2001. Even by Philippine standards, their presence was unusual.

But this was only a demonstration. Street protests have never toppled a Philippine president without support from the armed forces. The military chiefs have said they support the constitutional order. Officers who have stepped out of line in the recent past have ended up looking more like foolish pranksters than serious threats.

The spur for the protests is the accusation that Mrs Arroyo's political allies—and perhaps her husband—were to receive kickbacks from an allegedly overpriced $329m contract with a Chinese company, ZTE Corp, to build a broadband network connecting government offices. The president cancelled the contract last year after questions arose about its propriety. All those implicated have denied any wrongdoing.

The controversy has persisted because the Senate is holding hearings about the contract. Compelling testimony of corruption in the corridors of power has enthralled the public. But the hearings have so far not put Filipinos in a mood to take to the streets en masse to remove an unpopular president. She was, after all, elected (though previous calls for her resignation were provoked by accusations that the vote was rigged).

It is unlikely that another “People Power” uprising is really what senators want. A number have ambitions to become president themselves in the election due in 2010. If Mrs Arroyo were to be removed by unconstitutional means, that election might not take place. Even if she were impeached and removed from office (which is unlikely, since impeachment proceedings have to be started in the lower house, which is under her control), she would be succeeded by her vice-president, Noli de Castro. He would be eligible to contest the 2010 election, and an incumbent would be much harder to beat.

The hearings allow wannabe presidents to keep themselves in the public eye. But they are learning that the safest way to become president and to remain president is to be elected—a lesson Mrs Arroyo is teaching them.

Thousands Protest against Arroyo

This is from the Boston Globe. The Roman Catholic clergy and the legal fronts of the Communist Party of the Philippines are regular fixtures along with many different activists at Philippine rallies. Although the groups certainly differ in their views it doesn't prevent their joining together to protest against Arroyo.
As if on demand, when one of these rallies is about to happen all of a sudden reports of assassination plots against Arroyo surface to deflect attention from the corruption issue.

Thousands protest against Philippines' Arroyo
By Manny Mogato
February 15, 2008
MANILA (Reuters) - Thousands of people rallied in Manila on Friday calling for the resignation of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo over a corruption scandal.
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Police said around 10,000 people, including left-wing activists, students, religious groups and lawyers, had taken to the streets.
The protests, sparked by a Senate inquiry into government kickbacks in a telecom deal, were the biggest since tens of thousands of people demonstrated against Arroyo in 2005 amid allegations she cheated in elections the previous year.
"We are outraged by the reports of corruption and greed in government," said Maita Gomez, an activist who said she was wearing red because it was the color of anger.
Nuns, priests, artists and office workers danced as a local group belted out tunes, including Bob Marley's "Get Up, Stand up" from a makeshift stage. People waved flags and posters with the words "Out Gloria," one large banner read "Gangster Regime."
"This is a good starting point for future mass actions. By that time, the numbers would have grown significantly," said Renato Reyes, the secretary general of Bayan, a left-wing group.
But analysts said it would be difficult to get more people to join the protests because after three impeachment bids and at least three coup plots against Arroyo, the electorate craves stability and the opposition lacks unity.
"She's still on the safe side," said Earl Parreno, an analyst at the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms.
"It's a challenge to the political opposition to fan the emotions, I have not seen the spontaneity as in past popular uprisings."
In an interview with Reuters earlier this week, Arroyo said she would complete her final term and in a briefing with investors on Friday, she assured them that the latest allegations were part of the typical political rough-and-tumble.
"These types of charges have regularly emerged even in previous administrations, as part of our less than impressive political culture," said the former economist, whose final term runs out in 2010.
The Senate inquiry has heard renewed allegations that the country's former election chief demanded $130 million to broker a $329 million deal with China's ZTE to build a broadband network for government agencies.
The election official denied the charge, but the deal was scrapped last year.
MERRY-GO-ROUND
But political analysts say the president's position appears safe due to support from the military and the lower house of Congress and the apathy of many Filipinos, who are sick of the political merry-go-round in Manila.
Arroyo herself took over after former President Joseph Estrada was ousted following street protests seven years ago. He was later convicted of plunder, but Arroyo granted him a pardon last year.
The latest scandal has, however, unsettled some investors. The Philippine stock index bucked the regional uptrend on Thursday and continued to fall on Friday, finishing down 0.9 percent.
The Philippines is currently on an economic roll, with growth at a 31-year high and the budget deficit at a 10-year low, and Arroyo said the momentum would be sustained despite a slowdown in the United States through accelerated infrastructure spending.
(Writing by Carmel Crimmins; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Sanjeev Miglani)