Saudi-led airstrike in Yemen kills over one hundred at wedding party

A wedding party in southern Yemen was hit by Saudi-led aerial bombardment Monday, killing up to 135 people, including many women and children. The tents set up for the wedding may have been mistaken for a military encampment.

The bombing campaign is accused of killing many civilians and health facilities have been attacked on several occasions. A recent attack was in January on a Doctors Without Borders clinic. Several cases of cluster bombs being used have been claimed with considerable evidence. Fragments show some of the bombs were made in the U.S. Saudis deny the bombs have been used. The UN has warned that the use of the cluster bombs in populated areas could be a war crime. Since its beginning in early spring last year, the Saudi-led bombing is estimated to have killed more than 3,500 people with aids groups, claiming that perhaps half of the casualties were civilians. The UN claims that in the conflict so far about 6,000 have been killed with about half being civilians. The Saudi coalition attacks have caused massive damage to Yemen's infrastructure. Some military experts question the effectiveness of the bombing campaign. Iran supports the Houthi rebels, who are Shiites, while the majority of Yemenis are Sunni.

The strike on the wedding was just outside the Red Sea port of Mokha. The groom in the ceremony was associated with the rebel Houthis who took over much of western and southern Yemen including Aden but have now been dislodged from the port city and much of the south. However, the Houthis still hold the capital and many surrounding areas.

The Saudis are joined by troops from the UAE and even mercenaries as well as those opposed to the Houthis. Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula(AQAP) has allied itself with Sunni tribes in some areas to fight the Houthis. But AQAP also fought against the government of Mansour Hadi when it was in power. After being in exile for some time, the Hadi government is now located in Aden.

AQAP has extended its influence and enlarged the area it controls since the conflict started. The Saudi coalition has done little to fight AQAP. No doubt it sees the group as a valuable force to fight against the Houthis. AQAP controls the key coastal city of Mukalla and the province of Hadrawhmat. Recently they captured the key city of Azzan in the province of Shabwa. The U.S. continues drone strikes against AQAP. The Islamic State is also making its presence known in Yemen. Although it does not hold territory it mounts suicide attacks both against the Houthis and the Hadi government. Most recently they attacked the presidential palace in Aden.

While there have been several attempts at establishing a ceasefire and peace talks, so far none have been successful. The Saudis may believe they can achieve a military victory but so far the struggle has simply dragged on with both sides suffering considerable casualties. The conflict is displacing many Yemenis and causing a humanitarian catastrophe.

Division reported in US administration over support for Saudi operations in Yemen

The Obama administration is reportedly divided on support for the Saudi war in Yemen, which has caused increasing carnage.

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Official estimates now place the death toll from Saudi-led airstrikes alone at about 1,500 civilians. There have been reports of the use of cluster bombs in the north, which hit a wedding party, a UN storage warehouse and port facilities in a Houthi-controlled port. Several residential areas in the capital, Sanaa, have also been bombed. A naval blockade in which the U.S. is a participant has made it difficult for aid supplies to reach Houthi-controlled areas.

The latest incident was the bombing of a hospital in the north run by Doctors without Borders. The attack ruined the hospital and wounded two staff members. The U.S. is reluctant to irritate the Saudis at this time because they are anxious to gain support for the nuclear deal with Iran, opposed by many U.S. allies including the Saudis and other Gulf states but Israel as well. On the issue of the Iran nuclear deal both Israel and many Arab states agree. Iran is a supporter of the Houthi rebels in Yemen the targets of the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen.

The Houthis took a large portion of western Yemen even south to the port of Aden. Since the Saudi campaign in March they have lost many southern areas including the port of Aden. The conflict has been a boon for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula which has formed alliances with local tribes to battle against the Houthis and has managed to gain control of large areas including the major port of Mukalla to the east of Aden. The group apparently has infiltrated into Aden. A recent suicide attack killed two members of a militia loyal to President Hadi's government which has established some offices in Aden in an attempt to restore a functioning recognized government in parts of Yemen again. There have been several other attacks, one shown on the appended image. Officials from the Hadi government and the president himself had been in exile in Saudi Arabia.

The UN has been trying to reach a peace agreement and political settlement for some time. However, the process is often fruitless since the UN has passed a resolution demanding that the Houthi's withdraw from all the areas they have taken and lay down their arms. Nevertheless, the Yemen government has agreed to a meeting to discuss implementation of the resolution and the Houthis as well.

Meanwhile, the Saudis are pressing for further gains supported by a large contingent of troops from the UAE. The Saudis are recruiting proxies for the battle to avoid political difficulties that might come from too many Saudi casualties. Sudan has agreed to send up to 6,000 soldiers to Yemen. The Saudis are in effect also hiring mercenaries to the tune of 800 former Colombian military. The first group of 100 under contract wtih Saudi Arabia already arrived in Aden this month. The group will wear Saudi uniforms but will be under the command of the UAE armed forces. This presence of foreign troops is not likely to go down well with locals.

Many of the militia who supported the Saudi offensive in Aden and area are southern separatists. They have no love for the Saudis or Hadi and local tribes are not likely to be happy with what is happening. An article in the Washington Post by Peter Salisbury an associate of the UK think-tank Chatham House, gives a good account of the difficulties of negotiating any successful political solution in Yemen. He fears that the West and the Saudis will press for a solution that may meet the wishes of the Hadi government, and traditional power brokers within Yemen but will leave out important players contributing to continuing instability within Yemen. The Hadi government is unlikely to have much support in Yemen, and even those who have supported it such as the southern separatists do so only to advance their own political interests. If these interests are ignored, rebellion and conflict will break out again.