Afghans think security is declining: poll

These polls are often suspect although it would not be surprising there is concern for security. Other polls and data show little support for the national army and police. One wonders if representatives of the police or army are present at the polling to protect the pollsters! This is from sfgate.


Afghan Residents Say Security Declining
By FISNIK ABRASHI, Associated Press Writer

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

(10-23) 04:18 PDT KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) --


Afghans believe the security situation in their country has deteriorated, compared with last year, but they say life is better now than under Taliban rule, a U.S.-funded survey released Tuesday found.


About 46 percent of more than 6,200 adults surveyed nationwide feel security is the biggest problem afflicting the country, while 29 percent think it is unemployment, according to the survey, which was conducted by the Asia Foundation and paid for by the U.S. Agency for International Development.


"In the 2006 survey, it was unemployment first, followed by security and corruption, and this time around it is security first followed by unemployment and poor economy. This further underlines the deterioration in security in the eyes of the common Afghans," the survey said.


Despite the rise in violence, about four in 10 of those responding said they feel the country is headed in the right direction. That's roughly the same as those who answered the 2006 survey. Half of those surveyed said they were more prosperous today than during Taliban rule in the late 1990s.


Afghanistan is experiencing its worst bout of violence since the Taliban were removed from power in a U.S.-led invasion in 2001. More than 5,200 people — mostly militants — have died in insurgency-related violence so far this year, according to an Associated Press count based on figures from Afghan and Western officials.


"Insecurity is the main reason for the people to believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction," the survey said.


While lack of security was the top-ranked national issue, those surveyed identified a lack of electricity and water, and unemployment as the main problems on a local level, the survey found.


The foundation said the survey was conducted in all 34 provinces and was the largest comprehensive opinion poll ever conducted in Afghanistan. Some 6,263 people 18 and older were interviewed in person by a team of 494 trained interviewers between June 11 and June 22. The margin of error was 2.4 percentage points, it said.


Almost half of the people of Afghanistan think that their families are more prosperous today than they were during the Taliban regime, the survey found. However, more than a fourth think they are less prosperous today.


More than 80 percent of the respondents said they have confidence in the Afghanistan's National Army and the country's troublesome police force, while more than half said they do not trust the formal justice system and would rather rely on traditional forms of justice — decisions by local councils — to settle their disputes.


About eight in 10 felt that cultivation of opium poppies was wrong, with half of these respondents citing religion as the reason, but only about one in 10 linked the trade to terrorism, insecurity and corruption in the country, it said.


Afghanistan accounts for more than 93 percent of the world's supply of opium, the main ingredient in heroin, a lucrative trade whose proceeds in part fund some of the Taliban-led insurgency. The drug trade also has a corrupting influence on local government officials.


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Afghan Poll

Actually the polling was done by a Kabul firm under the supervision of Environics. I will post more on this. The poll results are quite interesting but in many cases are exactly what Karzai would like to hear. There are obvious difficulties with polling in Afghanistan. The pollsters have certainly tried to get a representative sammpling in terms of location gender etc. but even so I wonder about some of the results. For example what was the tribal composition of the Kandahar samples? There is very strong support for Karzai's government but that would hardly be surprising if you are polling his tribal group. It was probably impossible to poll in areas where the Taliban are quite strong. I am surprised that no commentator so far has even suggested that their might be any problem about the poll! The CBC does not even mention that Environics and the CBB did not themselves do the poll but a third party.
In spite of the fact the Canadian government does not believe in negotiating with terrorists 72 per cent in Kandahar believe that a coalition government with the Taliban would be fine and 85 per cent favor negotiations with them! This of course supports Karzai very strongly and that is what makes me wonder how representative the Kandahar poll might be.
There is much interesting detail on the results at the CBC.


Afghanistan
Poll: What Afghans think
Environics poll in partnership with the CBC
Last Updated October 2007
CBC News
In September 2007 Canadian polling company Environics teamed with partners including the CBC to ask Afghan citizens living in Afghanistan what they thought about the state of affairs in their country.

VIDEO
David Common talks to pollsters who went door-to-door in Kandahar. (Runs 2:05)
Questions ranged from personal security, the role and comfort level with foreign troops, views on terrorist tactics, to their outlook for the future.

Because Canadian troops are stationed in Kandahar province, special questions about Canada's role were asked to people living in that region of Afghanistan.

The complete poll results show that the Afghan people are generally supportive of their national government, generally supportive of the role foreign troops are playing and generally optimistic about the future of their country. Nationally, 79 per cent (81 per cent in Kandahar) think things generally are going in the right direction.

In Kandahar:

One in three people believes that the Taliban would return if foreign troops pulled out before the army and police were better trained.
85 per cent believe the government should negotiate with the Taliban to reduce conflict, and 72 per cent believe a coalition government with the Taliban would be acceptible.
One in three people believes suicide bombing is sometimes justified.