If US would reduce its nuclear stockpile to equal China's, it would join nuclear agreement

(July 9) China confirmed on Wednesday that it would be happy to join trilateral talks with Russia and the US to reach an agreement to limit nuclear arms.

China requires US to cut its nuclear stockpile

As a condition for joining the talks, China would require the US to reduce its own nuclear stockpile to the same size as China..

At present the US and Russia each have about 6,000 nuclear warheads. China has about 320. There is no way that the US would agree to such a reduction as a condition for China joining the talks.

US may be inviting China as a means to delay talks

The START program is set to expire. By demanding that China be part of the talks the US is delaying talks about extending or amending START or creating a new treaty. China's arsenal is so small that it is hardly an important player in the nuclear arms competition between the US and Russia. However, it is possible that the US sees China as developing extensively its nuclear arms while Russia and the US would be restricted by a new treaty. Another alternative explanation of the attempted inclusion of China is that the US really does not want a new treaty at all but believes it can easily win an arms race with Russia and China.

The US may aim to scuttle any new nuclear limitation treaty

Kingston Reif the director for disarmament and threat-reduction policy at the Arms Control Association In Washington supported this position: “The approach, in my view, is far more consistent in running out the clock on New START than trying to extend it." Reif added: “It is in China’s interest to engage with the United States on these questions but they are not going to be coerced to the table.” It is hard to see why it is in China's interest to engage with the US as the US is not a reliable partner as it often withdraws from treaties or breaks them when it thinks it is in the US interest to do so.

The US no doubt thinks that its interest is in having no nuclear treaty at all so that it is free to outspend all its competitors. This will put pressure on China and Russia to come to a deal with the US with the US no doubt demanding more concessions if it is willing to deal at all. The US has even threatened to resume nuclear testing to use as leverage in trilateral negotiations. The US policy is likely to produce a world where US, Russia, and China all spend huge amounts on an arms race that could have been used for socially useful projects such as better education and health care systems or repair of ageing infrastructure.

Previously published in the Digital Journal