(May8) The Trump administration is annoyed at
Saudi Arabia's inability to keep oil prices high enough to enable US
shale producers to make any profit and some think the partial withdrawal
is intended to punish the Saudis.
US claims Iran threat is less now
The original rationale
for sending troops and equipment to Saudi Arabia was claimed to be
threats from Iran. The buildup happened after missiles probably from
Yemen his Saudi oil producing facilities. Now the US will withdraw two
Patriot missile batteries it had sent along with a number of planes.
The two missile batteries and planes were to guard the oil
facilities. About 300 troops who operated the batteries will also be
withdrawn. However, at least two Patriot batteries remain at the Prince
Sultan Airbase in the Saudi desert along with other air defense systems
as well as jet fighters.
Conclusion
The US no doubt hopes that the withdrawal will coax the Saudis into
further attempts to reduce oil production and help raise prices for oil.
However, there needs to be further reduction in production by other
countries to also cut production as there has been a sharp drop in
global demand.
It seems unlikely that there will be any very damaging attack on the
Saudis from Iran or anyone else. There is no needed for the US to spend a
great deal to assure Saudi security. The forces remaining should be
sufficient.
However, attacks in Iraq by Iran-supported militia has resulted in the
US sending Patriot systems into Iraq to protect bases there. Some bases
have been closed to consolidate US troops in larger bases which can be
adequately defended.
The US was angered when
the Saudis ramped up oil production slashing prices earlier this year.
US Republicans accused the kingdom of creating even more instability in
the oil market that was already weak because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Tho cost of production for US shale producers became greater than the
selling price. The result was layoff in the industry often in states
where Republicans were in power. It remains to be seen whether the
Saudis will find the US move a significant reduction in security which
will cause them to action that would help raise prices. It seems more
likely that they will accept the status quo.
This may be acceptable to the US. Trump has always wanted to reduce US
troops overseas and be less involved in what he has sometimes called
useless wars. A partial withdrawal from Saudi may be acceptable to both
parties.
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