Trump blames China for not stopping Covid-19 pandemic

( May 15) In an interview with Fox Business this Thursday Trump continued to criticize China about the COVID-19 pandemic claiming that China had failed to prevent the spread of the virus and the pandemic had cast a pall over the US trade deal with China.

The interview

In the Fox Business News interview Trump said that he was very disappointed with China's failure to contain COVID-19 and claimed that the pandemic cast a pall over their trade deal in January this year. Trump said: "They should have never let this happen. So I make a great trade deal and now I say this doesn't feel the same to me. The ink was barely dry and the plague came over. And it doesn't feel the same to me."

While before Trump has stressed his good relationship with President XI in the interview he that at present he did not even want to speak to him.

Trump even suggests that the US could cut off its whole relationship to China.

Trump insists cutting off Chinese imports would save billions

Trump insists that if the US cut off all relationships with China it would save $500 billion. He is referring to the estimated annual imports from China which he has before referred to as lost money. This is nonsense in that the money buys goods that are often cheaper and just as good as from other sources and some are not even available in the US. The US also exports to China which brings money in to the US. Many US businesses are dependent upon raw materials or parts made in China. Cutting off China trade can only hurt them and force them to find other often more expensive sources for items they need. This could even make some US firms noncompetitive. Given the negative results for breaking off all relations with China perhaps Trump's suggestion is an empty threat unlikely to be carried out. However, perhaps the negative consequences will be overlooked.

Zhao Lijian Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said to reporters in Beijing Friday that maintaining a steady bilateral relationship between the two countries benefited both countries and world peace and stability :"Both China and the U.S. should now be cooperating more on fighting the virus together, to cure patients and resume economic production, but this requires the U.S. to want to work with us on this."

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Southern Transitional Council refuses to negotiate of cease fighting in Yemen

(May 13) On Monday there was fighting in Zinjibar between Hadi's Yemen government forces supported by Saudi Arabia and Southern Transitional Council (STC) troops supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

STC refused to negotiate

The Yemen government now claims that the STC has refused its offer to de-escalate the conflict and negotiate the future of South Yemen rather than continue fighting.. The STC appears to still have control of Zinjibar. On April 25th the STC had declared self-rule in the southern areas of Yemen they control including the southern port capital of Aden.

The aim of the STC all along has been to create a separate state in the south as had existed previously.. This puts them at odds with Saudi Arabia and the former Hadi government which is fighting for a unified Yemen. Both the UAE and the Saudis are allied in fighting the Iranian supported Houthis who control much of the north including the capital Sanaa.

Background

The STC declared self-rule recently, aiming to reestablish South Yemen as an independent state. The Saudi-backed government has a big problem with this, however, because Hadi wants a unified Yemen. The Saudis and UAE had brokered a power-sharing deal with the STC and the Hadi government last fall but the Hadi government had always resisted the sharing and the deal is now dead with the STC declaring independence in effect. The STC announcement makes it clear that it does not intend to try to reach another compromise but to rule territory they already control.

Continued conflict likely

The UN and others have been requesting the two sides to stop the conflict so that both can work to counter the COVID-19 epidemic which is helping cause a huge humanitarian crisis in the country. The health infrastructure in Yemen is week and not prepared to deal with the epidemic. The Saudis declared a unilateral ceasefire but the Houthis refused to reciprocate and in any event the Saudis appear to have not honored the ceasefire.

Mohammed al-Hadhrami, the Foreign Minister of the Hadi government said that the STC had refused calls from the Yemen government and the international community to reverse its position and agreed to negotiate. Al-Hadrhami said that the Yemen army would do "everything necessary to preserve the state, its institutions, and the safety of its citizens against (the STC).”

In a speech this Monday Aidarous al-Zubaidi called for his forces to be ready and urged people in areas they control to defend their national gains. It appears that fighting will continue between the STC and the Hadi government and also between them and the Houthis. This can only exacerbate the situation for Yemenis as the face the COVID-19 pandemic.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

In Yemen the Southern Transitional Council fights with Saud-backed forces in the city of Zinjibar

(May 12) On April 25th the separatist Southern Transitional Council had declared self-rule in parts of south Yemen in which supported by the UAE they had control. On Monday the first fighting broke out in the city of Zinjibar the capital of Abyan Province.

The conflict 

 The fighting was between the Saudi-backed government forces and those of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The battles started in the outskirts of Zinjibar and then spread rapidly. Medical sources told the AFP that two government soldiers were killed and 13 wounded, while the STC separatists suffered two dead and 11 wounded. Another report claimed that at least 10 people were killed with both sides claiming victory. However, AFP journalists on the scene saw government armored vehicles near the city on fire with STC forces celebrating what they claimed was their victory. 

 Zinjibar has often changed hands 

 Zinjibar is about 50 kilometers or 30 miles from the southern capital of Aden. During the Arab Spring it was taken over by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and then taken by the STC after a flareup between it and the Saudi supported Hadi government. 

 The split between the Hadi government and the STC 

 Last August with the support of the UAE, the STC seized control of Aden and surrounding areas leaving little of Yemen controlled by the UN-backed government of Mansur Hadi that was supported by Saudi Arabia. Both the UAE and the Saudis were allies in an attempt to oust the Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, who control much of north Yemen including the capital Sanaa since 2014. In late fall, the STC worked out a power-sharing agreement which would give the STC a considerable presence in the Hadi government. However, the Hadi government resisted the deal. With the announcement by the STC back in late April of self-rule in the areas they control any earlier deal is now dead. The STC has always pressed for a separate South Yemen as existed previously whereas the Hadi government supported by the Saudis have always wanted one unified state. The Saudis may in time decide to opt for a peace deal that will see the Houthis rule a northern Yemen and an STC dominated separate state in the south. Hadi may be forced to settle for some share in this southern government or face being sidelined with little power. 

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Sillvercorp USA sought investors for the takeover of Venezuela

(May 12)  With the release of documents regarding planning for the failed incursion into Venezuela last week it turns out that Silvercorp USA was searching for investors into the takeover of Venezuela.

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Plan was to takeover Venezuela on behalf coup leader Juan Guaido

The documents implied Silvercorp USA the attack planner had ties to the Trump Administration. Silvercorp hoped to raise $750 million to finance the Venezuelan coup led by Guaido. Guaido announced himself interim president and was recognized immediately by the US and many other countries.

Once the operation was successful, the government would take over the oilfields and turn a profit for the coup government. One of the investors approached claimed the Sivercorp head Jordan Goudreau said the scheme had the backing of the US State Department.

The botched attack

The budget of the plan called for funding and equipment for hundreds of people and a 30 day operation. However, Venezuela was able to foil a main part of the operation within hours capturing a mere few dozen plotters. Those captured said that the plan was to kidnap Venezuelan President Maduro take the Caracas airport and fly Maduro to the US where they would collect the $15 million bounty the US offered for his arrest. It does not appear that the plotters even came close to achieving their aims.

Venezuelan authorities arrested more than a dozen people including two Americans who worked for Silvercorp USA. A recent article reports: "Maduro showed what he said were the US passports and other identification cards belonging to Airan Berry and Luke Denman, who he said were in custody and had been working with Jordan Goudreau, an American military veteran who leads a Florida-based security company called Silvercorp USA." The two Americans appeared on TV in Venezuela and admitted they were given the task of kidnapping and flying out Maduro and bringing Guaido into power.

US denies any involvement

When asked about the documents and the appearance of two Americans who described the plot a US State Department spokesperson said: : “There is a major disinformation campaign underway by the Maduro regime, making it difficult to separate facts from propaganda.” Even though there is no definitive proof that the US was directly involved Silvercorp is portraying it as such and certainly the US has been trying for ages to find some way of mounting a coup against the Maduro government.

President Maduro said that even informal communications between Venezuela and the US have gone dead since the failed operation. There had always been links previously Maduro claimed in an interview on TV but now there was total silence.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

The WHO has anounced that it is withdrawing from those parts of Yemen controlled by the Houthi rebels

 (May 11) The World Health Organization(WHO) announced over the weekend that they are withdrawing from the parts of Yemen in the north controlled by the Houthi rebels. The Houthis are supported by Iran.

The order and its rationale

The announcement claimed that there were ""credible threats and perceived risks" in the areas. The move is said to be designed to pressure the Houthis to be more transparent about the number of cases in the area it controls information needed by WHO to determine its actions.

Some aspects of the report appear somewhat contradictory saying at the same time that staff are being withdrawn from areas but at the same time that the operation is not suspended: "The WHO order was issued because of "credible threats and perceived risks which could have an impact on staff security", the agency said, adding operations were not suspended."

Another part of the announcement implies that in certain areas WHO operation are suspended: "A WHO directive issued late on Saturday notified staff in Sanaa, the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, the northern province of Saada, and the central province of Ibb that "all movements, meetings or any other activity" for staff in those areas were paused until further notice." These are areas controlled by the Houthis. No explanation is given of the seeming contradictory aspects of the announcement. In any case it seems clear that many WHO operations are suspended in Houthi areas for now.

Main threats are from Saudi-led air attacks

For years now a Saudi-led coalition has been attempting to restore the previous Hadi government but so far has been unable to dislodge the Houthis from most of the north. The UAE is part of the coalition fighting the Houthis but they have also allied themselves with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) which now has control of much of the south which they now announce they rule as reported on the appended video. This creates a huge problem for the Saudis as Hadi wants a unified Yemen and has reacted against an earlier peace deal that would have seen the STC share government posts within a Hadi government.

The main threat to WHO in Houthi controlled areas is bombing or artillery fire from Saudi-controlled areas. WHO did not always get along with Houthi officials but they did not have that many problems except that Saudis hit a hospital occasionally.

Withholding aid will exacerbate humanitarian situation

The WHO actions will exacerbate the situation of people in the Houthi-held areas. The Saudi strategy seems to be to keep those in Houthi-controlled areas desperate for food and medication. The Saudis are using a humanitarian as a weapon to help defeat the Houthis.

Published previously in the Digital Journal

The US has blocked UN security motion on resolution of the COVID-19 pandemic

(May 10) After delays and much extra work on language changes a joint resolution by France and Tunisia at the UN Security Council was expected to pass soon.

The resolution

The resolution deals with the COVID-19 pandemic and also calls for global support for ceasefires so that countries can focus on fighting the virus.

The UN General Assembly had already approved two resolutions on the pandemic in April: "One recognizes “the unprecedented effects” of the pandemic and calls for “intensified international cooperation to contain, mitigate and defeat” the new coronavirus. The other urges global action to rapidly scale up development, manufacturing and access to medicine, vaccines and medical equipment to confront the pandemic."

Disagreements over language

The US refuses to allow any mention of the World Health Organization (WHO) in the resolution. Trump has cut off US funding for WHO accusing it of pro-China bias. Trump also wants a reference to 'transparency' while Chinese officials object to this as they think it is an implicit criticism of them since the US accuses them of not having been transparent.

The proposed compromise resolution

In the compromise resolution there is no direct reference to WHO but the resolution notes “the urgent need to support all countries, as well as all relevant entities of the United Nations system, including specialized health agencies, and other relevant international, regional, and sub-regional organizations, in line with their respective mandates, to enhance coordination and assist in the global fight against COVID-19.” However, the only specialized UN health agency is in fact WHO.

Also there is no direct reference to transparency as desired by the US but the resolution does welcome “all efforts and measures proposed by the secretary-general concerning the response to the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to conflict-affected countries, in particular his appeal for an immediate global ceasefire.” Some claim that the reference to UN Secretary General, Gutteres, is an indirect reference to support for transparency.

The call for a ceasefire does not include attacking ISIS or other terrorist organizations. There was not any mention of Israel being allowed to attack Syria although this was said to be a US priority.

US rejects compromise resolution

Many thought the compromise resolution would pass on Friday but the US rejected the language of the compromise because it obviously referred to WHO which is the only specialized UN health agency. The fact that it was not directly named was not enough to satisfy the US.

An anonymous Chinese diplomat said: “The United States had agreed to the compromise text and it’s shocking and regretful that the U.S. changed its position.” He added that China supported the draft. However, an anonymous US official claimed that the US had never agreed to the text.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

US denies any involvement in failed Venezuela coup attempt

(May 9) President Trump said that the US had nothing to do with the recent failed attack on Venezuela and that he personally knew nothing about it. He mocked the attack as a failed operation by a rogue group from other countries.

Trump said: "I know nothing about it. I think the government has nothing to do with it at all, and I have to find out what happened. If we ever did anything with Venezuela, it wouldn't be that way. It would be slightly different. It would be called an invasion...I saw the pictures on a beach. It wasn't led by General George Washington, obviously." The US has repeatedly threatened threatened regime change in Venezuela to topple President Maduro for over a year now.

Trump even offers $15 million bounty on Maduro arrest information

The Trump administration is offering a $15 million reward for information that leads to the arrest of Maduro. Maduro has been indicted in the US on charges related to the use of cocaine as a weapon against Americans. Mike Pompeo US Secretary of State claimed: "The Venezuelan people deserve a transparent, responsible, representative government that serves the needs of the people – and that does not betray the trust of the people by condoning or employing public officials that engage in illicit narcotics trafficking."

Evidence that the US was involved 

The US has arguably been involved with attempts to overthrow a Venezuelan government before in 2002 when there was a failed coup against the Chavez government. The latest plot was led by two US veterans, and that plot was run by US-based Silvercorp. The plot was said to be mounted on behalf of Juan Guaido the self-declared interim president of Venezuela. He is recognized as the legitimate president by the US and many of it allies. The US supports Guaido taking over the country. The US has been financing Guaido's activities and no doubt it also in part helped pay for the Silvercorp operation. While the US may not have been directly involved there is evidence that it was indirectly. The Washington Post said that a former US soldier who was captured in the failed raid claimed that he was contracted by a Florida security firm to seize control of the Caracas airport kidnap Maduro and bring in a plane to fly him to the US. The Post also had a document indicating that members of the Venezuelan opposition had negotiated a $213 million deal with Florida-based Siilvercorp USA to invade the country and overthrow Maduro. No doubt some of the opposition funds were provided by the USA. 

Venezuela wants extradition from US of the plan master mind

Jordan Goudreau, a US military veteran and head of the Silvercorp USA has claimed responsibility for the plan. Venezuela's chief prosecutor Tarek Saab wants Goudreau and two Venezuelans suspected as being involved in the plan to be extradited to Venezuela. Saab claims Miami-based political strategist Juan Rendon and the exiled legislator Sergio Vergara were also involved in the plot. The foiled operation left eight people dead and more than a dozen in jail, including two US citizens involved.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Trump administratiion to withdraw some equipment from Saudi Arabia

(May8) The Trump administration is annoyed at Saudi Arabia's inability to keep oil prices high enough to enable US shale producers to make any profit and some think the partial withdrawal is intended to punish the Saudis.

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US claims Iran threat is less now

The original rationale for sending troops and equipment to Saudi Arabia was claimed to be threats from Iran. The buildup happened after missiles probably from Yemen his Saudi oil producing facilities. Now the US will withdraw two Patriot missile batteries it had sent along with a number of planes. The two missile batteries and planes were to guard the oil facilities. About 300 troops who operated the batteries will also be withdrawn. However, at least two Patriot batteries remain at the Prince Sultan Airbase in the Saudi desert along with other air defense systems as well as jet fighters.

Conclusion The US no doubt hopes that the withdrawal will coax the Saudis into further attempts to reduce oil production and help raise prices for oil. However, there needs to be further reduction in production by other countries to also cut production as there has been a sharp drop in global demand. It seems unlikely that there will be any very damaging attack on the Saudis from Iran or anyone else. There is no needed for the US to spend a great deal to assure Saudi security. The forces remaining should be sufficient. However, attacks in Iraq by Iran-supported militia has resulted in the US sending Patriot systems into Iraq to protect bases there. Some bases have been closed to consolidate US troops in larger bases which can be adequately defended. The US was angered when the Saudis ramped up oil production slashing prices earlier this year. US Republicans accused the kingdom of creating even more instability in the oil market that was already weak because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tho cost of production for US shale producers became greater than the selling price. The result was layoff in the industry often in states where Republicans were in power. It remains to be seen whether the Saudis will find the US move a significant reduction in security which will cause them to action that would help raise prices. It seems more likely that they will accept the status quo. This may be acceptable to the US. Trump has always wanted to reduce US troops overseas and be less involved in what he has sometimes called useless wars. A partial withdrawal from Saudi may be acceptable to both parties.

Previously published in the Digital Journal