Musharraf to declare a state of emergency in Pakistan?

Musharraf has always been threatened by fundamentalists. It will probably get worse if he declares a state of emergency since he faces opposition for his firing Chief Justice Chaudry. If all those opposed to Musharraf unite and elements in the armed forces decide to rebel as well then he could be doomed. The resulting government may not be at all pro-US.

Musharraf may declare state of emergency
Bruce Loudon, South Asia correspondent
11jul07

PAKISTANI President Pervez Musharraf may use the smashing of an Islamist rebellion at a mosque in the heart of the capital to declare a state of emergency and avoid presidential and parliamentary elections due within months, reports said yesterday.


Nearly 60 people were reported dead after Pakistani commandos stormed the besieged Red Mosque after negotiations between the country's leaders and Islamic militants broke down.

In a sign of more violence ahead - and more trouble for General Musharraf - hundreds of armed supporters of the Red Mosque militants were reported to have blocked the vital Karakorum Highway in the Himalayas, a vital trade route linking Pakistan and China.

Led by local madrassa students, they took up positions along the Silk Route near Batagram, pledging to fight a jihad against General Musharraf.

Earlier, more than 20,000 tribesmen in the Bajaur region of the North West Frontier Province protested against the siege and also pledged to bring down the President.

Even before the crisis over the mosque and last night's bloodbath, the Pakistani leader was facing his gravest crisis since he seized power eight years ago, with a massive protest movement building up over his attempts to dismiss the country's Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry.

Pakistan is due to hold elections in the next few months that, if General Musharraf has his way, will give him another five-year term in office.

Declaring a state of emergency could keep him in office without an election, and postpone federal and provincial parliamentary elections indefinitely - which would suit him, given the expectation of an opposition win.

"He's in a real jam," one diplomatic source in Islamabad said last night. "The crisis over the Chief Justice was bad enough, but now things are much worse, with the Taliban and the fundamentalists up in arms over the storming of the Red Mosque."

The Supreme Court is expected to deliver its verdict on the removal of Mr Chaudhry in less than two weeks. General Musharraf has said he will abide by the verdict, even if it goes against him.

Most analysts believe, however, that this could make his position unsustainable - and that in this context the outrage over the storming of the Red Mosque adds immeasurably to his problems.

Another analyst said: "The assault was inevitable ... and may even give Musharraf a short-term breather. But that's unlikely to last long because ... millions across Pakistan who support Islamic extremism will be hellbent on avenging what happened."

General Musharraf held a series of meetings with military and civilian advisers before the order was given to launch yesterday's assault.

Given their combat superiority, it was always inevitable the Government forces would be able to smash the uprising.

But analysts are asking why the Government did nothing for six months while the rebellion grew from a sit-in by schoolgirls at a local library, to demand the rebuilding of demolished mosques, into a potent challenge to General Musharraf's hold on power.

Time and again, General Musharraf was warned the rebellion was getting out of hand, especially when the militants started launching raids outside the mosque directed against video stores and alleged brothels.

But he opted for conciliation rather than confrontation - fearing the support that exists across Pakistan for Islamic extremism as well as al-Qa'ida and the Taliban.

"He was boxed in," a Pakistani commentator said. "He was worried that if he did anything, there would be a reaction. Now he's faced by that reaction."