Saturday, July 28, 2018

XRP cryptocoin hits new 2018 low on June 29

(July 2) On Friday June 29th the price of XRP, the third largest cryptocoin by market cap, fell below $0.43 hitting a new low for this year. It fell to $0.424 on the Bitfinex exchange at 13:00 UTC. This broke a low of $0.438 that was set just five days ago.

The last time XRP closed below $0.42 was on December 12, 2017.
Market looks bearish
The price of XRP on June 29 at 20:31 UTC was averaging $0.43 again. However, this represents a 24 hour drop of 3.5 percent. Over an entire week the drop was 14 percent. If the price does not hold at the current level the outlook will be even more bearish with the strongest layer of support only at $0.19.
New lows were also set by OmiseGo (OMG), neo (NEO) and litecoin. Bitcoin was just $14 away from breaking through its low of 2018 $5,786 earlier on Friday.
The total cryptocurrency market is also down with capitalization at just $232 billion. This is the lowest it has been since last November. It is 72 percent below its all time high of just below $830 billion according to CoinMarketCap.
Present situation
The situation has improved greatly for the XRP price through Sunday into today July 2. The price opened the day up a full three cents from on Friday at $0.46 and has actually reached a high so far of $0.49 with a low of just $0.45. As of 20:45 UTC the price was at $0.48 up 4.72 percent on the day.
BItcoin also is doing better today. From recent lows below $6,000 it is at present $6,618 on its way back up for now. The price is up well over 4 percent so far today with only a few hours left in the day. The present price for bitcoin can be found here. The price for Ripple is at this site.
The cryptocurrency market appears to be starting the new week in recovery mode. 100 billion XRP were issued a fact which explains the high market cap in spite of the low price. No more are to be issued.


Published previously in Digital Journal

Friday, July 27, 2018

A cryptic message on a website may signal founder of bitcoin may write a book

(July 1)A cryptic message posted this Friday on a website that is possibly linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym of the person who released the original white paper on Bitcoin in 2008 indicates the bitcoin founder may write a book setting the record straight.

Satoshi Nakamoto
The WIkipedia entry on Nakamoto says: "Satoshi Nakamoto is the name used by the unknown person or people who developed bitcoin, authored the bitcoin white paper, created and deployed bitcoin's original reference implementation. As part of the implementation, they also devised the first blockchain database. In the process they were the first to solve the double-spending problem for digital currency using a peer-to-peer network. They were active in the development of bitcoin up until December 2010."
In a profile Nakamoto claimed to be living in Japan and to be born on April 5 1975. However, evidence has led many to concentrate on several computer science and cryptography experts of non-Japanese descent living in the US and a number of European countries. However Nakamoto's identity remains a mystery and the pseudonym could even refer to a group. The white paper was released back in 2008.
Nakamoto was the original sole miner of bitcoin and was awarded bitcoin for mining at the genesis block and subsequently for 10 days. These coins have remained unspent since mid-January 2009. Public bitcoin transactions logs show that Nakamoto's known address contains about one million bitcoins. Of course at the time they were worth virtually nothing but in 2017 at the peak price of bitcoin they were worth over $19 billion. They are worth much less now but Nakamoto would still be a billionaire. Nakamoto is keeping his coins through thick and thin indicating he is not interested in simply cashing out and becoming a billionaire.
The cryptic message
The site, possibly linked to Nakamoto details what it calls the" "first excerpt to a literary work consisting of two parts" that promises to be "a short story if you will, with some of the most brought up questions and answers. I wanted the people and the facts to be known.""
The post even includes a cryptogram which is supposed to reveal names related to the title of the book. The answer to the cryptogram seems to be "honne and tatamae" a Japanese expression that describes the contrast between a person's true feelings and desires and the behavior and opinions one expresses in public.
Bloomberg could not independently verify the authenticity of the post or the excerpt. The site could be hacked or someone could simply be perpetrating a fake news scam.
Passages on the beginning of bitcoin
The author refers to people who were connected to the early development of bitcoin. He also refers to the "first" genesis block which is a bit strange since it seems to imply there was more than the one that Nakamoto released in early 2009. The author also claims that Nakomoto got involved in the cyberpunk movement that spawned bitcoin as a 14-year old.
At one point the author says: "I’m going to take a moment here to explain something. I know that some of you might be reading this or hearing about it for the first time, might not know, so I should state it publicly, although by now it is assumed, but has never been publicly stated before, so I will make it official. Satoshi Nakamoto is not a real name. Specifically, not a legal name. It is primarily the essence of thoughts and reason."
The first line of the excerpt is "It was inevitable". The book should it appear will probably have lots of buyers whether it be a hoax or the genuine article.

Previously published in Digital Journal

- Canadian consumer confidence slides as trade friction between Canada and the U.S. escalates.

 A new poll by Nanos Research shows a sharp drop in household sentiment two weeks after Trudeau and Trump had a tiff after a G7 summit.
Canadian consumer confidence at lowest level in 2 years

Trump had threatened that his dispute with Canada over tariffs he levied on steel and aluminum would end up costing the Canadian people a lot of money. The consumer confidence level has fallen to the lowest level in two years.
Nick Nanos, the chair of Nanos Research said: “We rarely see an all out economic threat issued by anyone to Canada. It’s probably fair to say a certain proportion of Canadians think that Canada will pay and it won’t be a pleasant experience.”
The survey shows the extent to which the trade tensions are creating anxiety about the Canadian economy. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on that of the US for exports. The heightened uncertainty created by Trump's policies could prompt both consumers and businesses to scale back spending. This uncertainty could have a greater negative threat than the actual tariffs themselves.
Later this week the first survey of business sentiment since the recent G7 meeting in Canada are expected to be released. These should provide more insight into the extent to which the trade dispute is impacting investment decisions. On Thursday the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) will release it small business barometer. On Friday, the Bank of Canada publishes a quarterly survey of executives.
The Nanos survey
Each week, Nanos Research polls 250 Canadian asking questions on personal finances, the outlook for the economy, job security. and where real estates prices are going. Bloomberg then publishes four-week rolling averages of the 1,000 telephone responses. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is calculated from the rolling averages of the above-mentioned four questions.
For the week ending June 22, the overall index was down to 55.3 the lowest since 2016 and down from the 57.1 of the previous week. The one week gap is the largest since Nanos began its polls in 2013
The results show a decline in sentiment for all questions but the largest drop is in the outlook for the economy. Only 14.7 of those polled thought that the economy would get stronger over the next six months. This is the lowest since 2015 when Canada was technically in a recession. The percentage who thought the economy would weaken was 38.2 the highest since back in 2016.
Nanos chair, Nik Nanos said: “Of note, there was negative pressure on all four economic indicators – personal finances, future strength of the Canadian economy, job security and future value of real estate. The most pronounced one-week drops in consumer confidence were in the Prairie regions and Ontario.”
US Canada relations are strained
An article in the Star shows the complex events that led ultimately to the Trump outburst against Trudeau at the end of the G7 summit in Canada. The articleconcludes: "In the end, a summit meant to patch trade rifts ended with a deeper acrimony and questions about the Canada-U.S. relationship and how it could recover in the crucial weeks ahead."
Trudeau had said at a press conference at the end of the conference that the decision to impose tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel was insulting. Trump and his advisers were angry and Trump tweeted from Air Force one that Trudeau was dishonest and weak. His trade adviser, Peter Navarro even said that there was a special place in hell for leaders such as Trudeau who negotiated in bad faith Navarro later apologized, at least for his wording. Trump refused to accept the final joint communique.
Consumer confidence often a good guide to economic health

The tension with Trump has just added fears to households that were already uneasy about the future. For much of this year consumer confidence has been low. Headwinds have included higher interest rates and a slowing of the real estate market. For three quarters in a row economic growth has been unable to grow above 2 percent. Such a slow growth rate has not happened since 2015.
While most economist expect the economy to grow over 2 percent for the remainder of 2018, the recent tariffs and looming trade war could change the outlook. Nanos said: “We have to see whether things settle in terms of people thinking this is maybe a one-off or a significant decline is on the way".

Previously published in Digital Journal



Startup Serial Box is now publishing mini stories using push notifications

Serial Box, a startup publisher, decided a couple of years ago to publish stories in a somewhat different way. It would take a long story and divide it into shorter more manageable stories written by a writing team.

Serial Box is now venturing on a new scheme to publish even shorter stories using push notifications.
The new mini stories
Since it began, Serial Box has released a number of serials including "The Witch Who Came in From the Cold". This is a fantasy spy thriller set during the Cold War. The stories are structured somewhat like a TV series the entire story playing out through a dozen more or less short episodes. The Serial Box site is here.
However in a blog post the Serial Box announced that starting on July 9th they are launching what they call Microfiction Mondays. Each week, the Serial Box app users will get a push notification containing a tiny story that will be no longer than 150 characters length authored by some from the pool of authors who have worked on the company's serials. Push notifications are messages that pop up on a mobile device. They look like SMS text messages and mobile alerts but they will only reach users who have installed the app associated with the notification.
The micro stories will appear only in the push notification not anywhere else on the Serial Box site. Those who have the app downloaded will need to turn on notifications in order to receive the stories. The aim is to get stories to people, even if they have almost no time to spend on reading stories.
The stories may be similar to some that are published now on Twitter that must keep things brief because of the character limit. The classic example of a mini story is attributed to Ernest Hemingway: "For sale: baby shoes, never worn".
Mini Stories on Twitter
Some authors have been using twitter as a medium for telling short stories but often in a series in which separate tweets operate much as part of a series. Award-winning author David Mitchell is authoring a new short story. As a recent article describes the process: "Over the past four days, Mitchell has intermittently posted tweets from the perspective of his narrator, an obsessive stalker and hacker. The story is told in the style of slang-filled tweets, rather than 140-character snippets of narrative. But the Twitter handle @I_Bombadil is a reference to a Tolkien character, and there are frequent cultural allusions amid the hashtags and emojis."
Melissa Terras, professor of Digital Humanities at University College London, notes that every literary medium has some kind of constraint, and Twitter is simply the latest restriction:“It’s the role of literature to play with forms. In poetry you have very rigid forms, and people have to operate within those constraints. With Twitter fiction, people are taking the limitation of 140 characters and doing something creative. It’s a slightly different artform and it creates a different experience of fiction.”
The Serial Box is doing something similar with its push notification mini stories.

Previously published in Digital Journal


Tuesday, July 24, 2018

US Supreme Court rules police must obtain search warrant to gain info on individual's cell phone location

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Friday that police are required to obtain a search warrant before they can gain information to any individual's cell phone location.

Police were routinely getting the information with no warrant
The ruling will put new limits on police ability to use the increasing amount of data that private companies are amassing about individuals. Not surprisingly the vote was close 5 to 4.
Cellphone providers keep location information for customers in order to help improve their service. Up until now the legal view has been that if an individual voluntarily shares his information with a third party, such as by signing up for cell phone service, then police are able to access that information without a search warrant.
However, that view was challenged when Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the decision for the court majority.
The Supreme Court's view
Roberts wrote that the cellphone location information is a nearly perfect tool for government surveillance of individual behavior. He said it was analogous to a person wearing an electronic monitoring bracelet. He maintained that the authors of the US Constitution would have held that an individual would have an interest in his or her day-to-day, hour-to-hour and even minute-to-minute records of where he or she was.
The case, Carpenter versus the US, was brought by Timothy Carpenter, who had been prosecuted as a ringleader in a series of armed robberies in both Michigan and Ohio. Cell tower information proved important evidence in his conviction. He appealed and contended that the police had unconstitutionally invaded his privacy by not obtaining a search warrant before accessing his cell phone information.
The court ruled that the routine court order that police had obtained in the case required only a showing that the police were after relevant information. A search warrant would require a far higher standard and was appropriate as Carpenter had a privacy interest that made the search warrant necessary.
Carol Rose, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Massachusetts said: “This is a groundbreaking victory for privacy rights in the digital age.” She also claimed it provided a framework for protecting other digital information.
Decision discussed by some academics
Orin Kerr, a fourth amendment scholar the University of California said: "Big Brother is coming and we need to stop it. That seems to be the big takeaway from the opinion. It almost reflects an anxiety about technology thwarting privacy. If we don't stop the government here, what will they be able to do?"
Jamee Jaffer, director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University claimed: "This is a landmark privacy case. It's also a very significant case for First Amendment freedoms — that is, for the freedoms of speech and the press and association. A government that can track your every movement without a warrant is a government that can freely monitor activist political associations, or monitor government employees' contacts with the press." Jaffer admitted that the decision could very well create practical problems.
Majority author considers decision narrow
Chief Justice Roberts considered the decision to be a narrow one. The ruling does not stop the routine use of subpoenas to obtain financial, bank, and business records. In emergency circumstances such as chasing a fleeing subject, or in a kidnapping or imminent danger the cell phone info could still be legally obtained.
The decision does not call into question other techniques that could be considered invasions of privacy such as the use of security cameras. It only ensures that the progress of technology does not erode fourth amendment guarantees of privacy.
Roberts was joined in the majority by liberal justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. The four other conservatives judges Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alto and Neil Gorsuch all dissented and even wrote separately to describe their reasons for disagreeing.
Dissenting opinions
Kennedy pointed out that the decision was in conflict with previous decisions about records held by third parties. In order to obtain a bank record, telephone records and credit card statements as part of an investigation the government can use a subpoena and does not need a warrant. He claimed it made no sense to make an exception in this case. He claimed that “cell-site records are uniquely suited to help the government develop probable cause to apprehend some of the nation’s most dangerous criminals: serial killers, rapists, arsonists, robbers, and so forth.”
Kennedy noted also that the records are created, kept, and owned not by Carpenter but by cell phone service providers who even sell the information to third parties. Carpenter cannot claim to own or possess the records and has no control over them.
Alito claimed that if the ruling was meant to protect privacy in the digital age it was misdirected: “Some of the greatest threats to individual privacy may come from powerful private companies that collect and sometimes misuse vast quantities of data about the lives of ordinary Americans. If today’s decision encourages the public to think that this court can protect them from this looming threat to their privacy, the decision will mislead as well as disrupt.”
Alito concluded: "The Court's reasoning fractures two fundamental pillars of Fourth Amendment law, and in doing so, it guarantees a blizzard of litigation while threatening many legitimate and valuable investigative practices upon which law enforcement has rightfully come to rely."
Alito also questioned Carpenter's ownership of the cell phone data. He noted that service providers routinely charge cellphone users a fee in order to inspect their own records. He said it was strange that if he were the owner of the records he would be required to pay to see them.
Clarence Thomas too argued that the records did not belong to Carpenter whereas the fourth amendment guaranteed an individual only the right to be secure from searches of their person, houses, papers, and effects. These records belonged to the service provider.
The decision will have no effect on the ability of private companies to amass use and sell their information. The Fourth Amendment applies only to government actions not private conduct.
Previously published in Digital Journal

Friday, July 13, 2018

US Supreme Court Sales Tax decision hurts small online businesses

The Supreme Court has ruled that US states can require online sellers to collect sales tax. However, the ruling could mean that the sellers need to collect sales taxes not just for their own state but for all the other states to which they sell.
A case study
Vince Kadlubek was originally happy enough when he heard of the Supreme Court ruling. He is CEO of the art collective Meow Wolf and his group brings in about $12 million a year with most coming for admissions to his New Mexico art attraction. He sells most of his admission tickets online. Kadlubek was fine with helping the state gain more revenue.
Then he heard that it could mean collecting sales tax revenue from other states as well. Kadlubek then said to NBC news: "This is going to be a headache. That makes me really think twice about whether or not we push online sales as a component of our company. I'd much rather have people buy their tickets at our front desk and keep the tax local." Perhaps, Kadlubek could simply limit online sales to residents of New Mexico.
It may be difficult and costly for Kadlubeck to comply as many states will demand that online sellers in other states collect sales tax from buyers in their states. The estimates of the amount of sales tax lost to sellers outside of a jurisdiction is from $8 billion to $33 a year according to the Supreme Court decision.
Reaction to the ruling is mixed
Companies with a physical retail presence in states have cheered the decision since before they were at a competitive disadvantage with online sellers. Tom McGee CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers said: "We think this levels the playing field and promotes competition. We've been operating in a system where we've been at a competitive disadvantage."
States also will no doubt welcome the ruling as it should increase their revenues from sales taxes. It remains to be seen if the ruling has much of an effect on online sales. If people bought in stores they would have to pay the state tax anyway and it may be convenient and often cheaper still to buy online. However, some small businesses may decide there is too much hassle in collecting the tax and curtail their online operations.
The use tax
Many states have a use tax equivalent to the sales tax that applies to online purchases but most online businesses do not comply with it. Rocky Cummings of BDO the accounting, tax, and advisory firm said: "There was very little voluntary compliance with the use tax. If you have a million residents buying stuff online, you're not going to chase a million people. It's much easier to go after the seller to collect it all."
At most, the additional revenue will add 5 to 7 percent to annual revenue, according to John Mikesell, of Indiana University's School of Public and Environmental Affairs. However, it will be good for state budgets.
Big players will be affected
Large online sellers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target frequently collect states taxes but not local taxes. The ruling opens the door to their having to worry about local taxes according to Mikesell. Yet large businesses have technical advantages that make the change much less burdensome for large businesses and so are comfortable with the change overall.
A statement from the large retailer Target said: "We are pleased the Court’s ruling will close the loophole that has allowed online-only retailers to avoid collecting and remitting sales taxes while still requiring local businesses to do so."
Small and medium size businesses are most negatively impacted
These business are faced with a huge problem because compliance is complicated. Darcy Kooiker of the national tax firm Ryan notes:. "Each state gets to determine whether the products, goods, and services sold by the sellers should be subject to that state's sales tax. Part of the biggest challenge for the sellers is to know in each particular state if its goods and services are subject to sales tax, because there's no uniform definition."
Some states have exemptions for collecting sales tax. In North Dakota for example a seller can sell up to $100,000 or 200 transactions with no tax.
Allen Walton CEO of , SpyGuy.com an online seller of security equipment complained: "This makes life very difficult for people like me. Now I have to keep track of the tax laws and collect and report tax in 50 states and over 3,000 counties."
Chris Cox, a lawyer for e-commerce industry group NetChoice, claimed that small businesses would be most affected: “Consumers will quickly feel the negative effects as those businesses dry up or are forced into the arms of Internet giants.”
Hart Posen an associate professor at the Wisconsin School of Business thinks that the decision can be a boon for Amazon. Many small online sellers may use Amazon's platform as it will collect and remit sales tax for them.
A number of states have already legislation that will trigger sales tax collection should the Supreme Court decision allow it, as it has. This means companies must comply right away or risk an audit and fines from different states. Forty five of the 50 states impose sales taxes.
The Supreme Court Decision
The ruling pitted several retailers against the state of South Dakota: "The justices, in a 5-4 ruling against Wayfair Inc., Overstock.com Inc. and Newegg Inc., overturned a 1992 Supreme Court precedent that had barred states from requiring businesses with no “physical presence” in that state, like out-of-state online retailers, to collect sales taxes."
The ruling authored by Justice Anthony Kennedy revived a 2016 law that required larger out-of-state e-commerce companies to collect sales tax a law that retailers fought in court. Kennedy said that rejecting the physical presence rule was needed to ensure that an artificial competitive advantage was not created by court precedents.
The ruling led to Wayfair stocks declining 3.8 percent while Overstock lost 2.1 percent. Even Amazon fell as much as 1.9 percent even though it may eventually benefit from the decision.


Previously published in Digital Journal

Thursday, July 12, 2018

Amazon workers protest sales of facial recognition software to the police

Workers at Amazon are demanding that the company cease selling facial recognition software to the U.S. government as it would be contributing tools that violate human rights.

 1 of 2                           
A letter to CEO Jeff Bezos cites recent mistreatment of refugees and immigrants by ICE as well as the targeting of black activists by law enforcement. The letter noted as a parallel IBM's sale of computer services to the Nazis: “As ethically concerned Amazonians, we demand a choice in what we build, and a say in how it is used. IBM did not take responsibility then, and by the time their role was understood, it was too late. We will not let that happen again.”
Amazon Web Services Rekognition and AWS cloud services

The workers said that Amazon Web Services Rekognition, the facial recognition software, should not be sold to law enforcement. The AWS cloud services should not be sold to Palantir. Palantir is a data analytics firm that provides mission critical software to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The sale of Rekognition software to the police was discovered by a American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) investigation in May. The ACLU warned that the deployment of such technology could be the beginning of automated mass surveillance in the US.
Palantir has been working with ICE since 2014 when Obama was president. It helps the agency manage the mass of personal data needed to target and deport individuals. The letter makes particular reference to the separation of families at the US border as a prime motivation for their protest. The entire letter can be found here.
The letter says about Palantir: "We also know that Palantir runs on AWS. And we know that ICE relies on Palantir to power its detention and deportation programs. Along with much of the world we watched in horror recently as U.S. authorities tore children away from their parents. Since April 19, 2018 the Department of Homeland Security has sent nearly 2,000 children to mass detention centers. This treatment goes against U.N. Refugee Agency guidelines that say children have the right to remain united with their parents, and that asylum-seekers have a legal right to claim asylum. In the face of this immoral U.S. policy, and the U.S.’s increasingly inhumane treatment of refugees and immigrants beyond this specific policy, we are deeply concerned that Amazon is implicated, providing infrastructure and services that enable ICE and DHS."
We will have to wait and see whether the protests at Amazon will change policy but the trend is for tech workers to take an active stance when their companies engage in work which is questioned by many including employees.
The Amazon protest follows earlier ones at Google and Microsoft

In March, it was revealed that Silicon Valley workers were helping build AI tools to analyze drone surveillance footage. In response workers protested and more than a dozen even resigned. The protest was successful and Google pulled out of the contract and even pledged not to develop AI weapons.
Google had offered its resources to the US Department of Defense for Project Maven. This is a research initiative to develop computer vision algorithms that can analyze drone footage. More than 3,100 Google employees signed a letter asking Sundar Pichai the Google CEO to reevaluate the company's involvement. The letter said that Google should not be involved in the business of war.
Microsoft has attempted to downplay its work with ICE but this has not stopped internal dissent. More than 300 employees have signed a letter denouncing the campaign. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella claims the company was only providing benign software for tasks such as messaging and email. It remains to be seen whether the protests will result in any change of policy.


Previously published in Digital Journal

China warns it can harm large Dow Jones listed firms in a trade war

(June 21) The Chinese government-controlled Global Times tabloid said that China could hit back at Dow Jones listed U.S. firms should the U.S. keep exacerbating tensions over trade.
Trump threatens even further tariffs on Chinese goods
Just this Monday U.S. president Trump threatened to put 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products if China were to follow through on the threat to retaliate against his earlier targeting of $50 billion in Chinese imports with tariffs.
The threats are beginning to have a negative effect on stocks in the Dow Jones index (DJI). It closed down 0.17 percent on Wednesday. For the year now the index has declined 0.25. However, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index has declined even more this year, 13.1 percent.
China may retaliate further
In a commentary, Global Times said: “If Trump continues to escalate trade tensions with China, we cannot rule out the possibility that China will strike back by adopting a hard-line approach targeting Dow Jones index giants.”
There were three rounds of high level talks between the world's two largest economies since early May but they failed to reach a compromise. The U.S. complains about Chinese trade practices and the $375 billion trade deficit it has with China.
Chinese commerce minister, Gao Feng, on Thursday said that although previous trade talks with the US were constructive the U.S. was now acting capriciously over bilateral trade issues. He warned that the interest of US workers and farmers would in the end be hurt by the Trump policy of brandishing "big sticks".
The U.S. has accused China of stealing intellectual property from the US, a charge that the Chinese deny: "Washington’s accusations of forced tech transfers are a distortion of reality, and China is fully prepared to respond with “quantitative” and “qualitative” tools if the U.S. releases a new list of tariffs, Gao told a regular briefing in Beijing."
In response to Washington's decision to levy tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods China plans to impose additional tariffs on 659 U.S. products. Duties on 545 of the goods is to start on July 6. These tariffs are in addition to tariffs already imposed on 128 U.S. goods including pork, fruits, and nuts a response to Trump's earlier imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. The goods to be affected on July 6 include also pork, fruit, but soybeans, autos and many marine products.
China remains committed to opening up its markets
Even as China takes measures in retaliation against US tariffs the tabloid insists the country is committed to reform and opening up its markets saying: “Beijing will further open up China’s financial markets to the world, a move that may draw funds from U.S. stock markets as global investors increasingly add Chinese stocks to their portfolios.Those measures may further knock down U.S. stock prices.”
China has said that it is willing to boost imports and widen market access. In April this year, Chinese president Xi Jinping said at a high profile Chinese forum that import tariffs on goods such as cars would be cut. In May, China promised it would lower import tariffs on 1,449 consumer goods beginning on the first of July this year. On Thursday Xi told a group of foreign executives in the capital Beijing that he had been keeping his promises.
Xi said that countries should not fight among themselves but cooperate to meet challenges together and warned that the last financial crisis was not that long ago. Xi said: “We still have vivid memories of what happened during the financial crisis and we are not yet fully recovered. We must also stay vigilant because, as economic growth still lacks momentum, we have seen a surge of trade protectionism, isolationism and populism.”
Gao warned that a trade war between China and the U.S. could disrupt global supply lines for the tech and auto industry and derail world growth. This would ultimately harm the interest of U.S. companies, workers, and farmers, Gao warned.
While the tariffs may be temporary and an attempt to force China to come to an agreement more favorable to the US the tactic could backfire. The tariffs could end up hurting farmers many of whom may support Trump. U.S. farmers export huge amounts of soybeans to China. However, in response to the tariff threats China has ordered its farmers to plant more soybeans. It is also planning to import more soybeans from other countries such as Canada. U.S. farmers may find that even if the tariffs are eventually removed by China their markets are mostly evaporated as China relies more on its own production and other countries than the U.S. for imports.


Previously published in Digital Journal

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Facebook to allow certain groups to charge monthly fees as a pilot project

Facebook has decided to allow administrators of some groups to begin charging $4.99 to $29.99 a month for exclusive memberships. The company made the announcement in a blog post indicating it was part of an early test.
     
Only certain groups will participate
Groups in the area of parenting, cooking and home cleaning will be the first to take part in the tests. For now the free groups will remain as they are but they will shortly have the option of launching premium groups with charges attached.
Groups that will participate include an Organize My Home group that will cost $14.99 a month to join and the administrator will be Sarah Mueller, a lifestyle blogger who now has a Declutter My Home group.
The Grown and Flown Parents group will launch a College Admissions group that will charge $29.99 a month and will enable members to access college counselors.
Reasoning behind the change
In the past Facebook groups have always been free but the company feels that a charge for membership would make members feel more special. However, it could end up just driving people away.
Another reason for the change is to allow administrators of groups to make some money for all the time and effort they expend to expand their groups. The money earned could also be used to purchase higher value content for the group, including more posts, videos, and even offline events.
The blog announcement notes: "We hear from group admins that they’re looking for ways to help them earn money to deepen engagement with their members and continue to support their communities. Many admins do this today by creating an additional subscribers-only group that sits alongside their existing group, and rely on additional tools to track and collect payments. Subscription groups were created to make it easier for admins to provide these experiences with built-in tools, and to save them time so they can focus on offering members-only content."
For now Facebook will not receive any part of the fees

The project is still at the experimental stage and Facebook will not receive any return from the fees charged. However, as part of the standard App Store and Play Store policies, Apple and Google will take a part of the subscription fees. However, this is just the beginning of Facebook's attempt to monetize groups. Unlike the News Feed, the groups do not rely on advertising to generate revenue.
Facebook
Facebook is an online social media and networking service company with headquarters in Menlo Park California. It operates world-wide except in a few countries where it is banned. The chief executive officer is Mark Zuckerberg.
The company was founded in February of 2004 by Zuckerberg together with a number of fellow Harvard College class mates.
Facebook had its initial public offering (IPO) in February 2012 with the company valued at $104 billion the largest valuation so far for a newly listed company. Most of Facebook's revenue comes from ads on screen.
As of January this year, Facebook had more than 2.2 billion monthly users.
Previously published in Digital Journal

Starbucks speeds up closing of 150 US stores as sales slow

Starbucks is planning to speed up its closings of US stores next year as sales growth is cooling. Usual rate of closings is 50 stores a year but next year it will close 150 under-performing stores in heavily penetrated markets.

Starbucks has huge presence in the United States

At present, Starbucks has about 13,900 locations in the US almost as many as the 14,400 restaurants operated by competitor McDonalds. In just the last year Starbucks has opened 1,000 new stores in the US, Canada, and Latin America.
The new stores in some instances may be taking customers from already established operations. Also, competition from rivals such as Dunkin Donuts and McDonalds is increasing.
Starbucks has 25,000 coffee shops in 70 countries. After the announcement of the closure Starbucks shares fell 2 percent in after hours trading.
Competition is heating up
Analyst Sara Senatore said in a research note: "Intensified competition in the slushy coffee category is exacerbating the shift towards health and wellness weighing on Frappuccino demand. Starbucks will focus on Teavana drinks and other more healthful options in its core offering, which it views as 'more differentiated.'"
Even though there is strong competition Starbucks expects 1 percent growth in global sales in the third quarter.
Starbucks holds race-bias training for employees in US
The growth in sales came in spite of an uproar over the arrest of two black men at a Philadelphia Starbucks as reported in a recent Digital Journal article. Two men were arrested when they were simply waiting for a third man to arrive for a business meeting.
The company closed its US stores on May 29th to hold a training session on racial bias. The closing of the stores was estimated to have cost Starbucks $12 to 14 million in lost sales. Although some criticized the exercise as virtue signaling, many black officials and activists were cautiously optimistic about the session.
New shops may be cannibalizing existing operations
Analyst Senatore said that the new stores could be cannibalizing customers from existing stores. She estimates that in some cases 1 out of 7 transactions are diverted from existing shops to the new ones.
A good example is in Burlington Vermont. For years, there was only one Starbucks location on the south side of the city. It was on a main road. However, a new shop was but built right across the street from the older cafe.
The former CEO of Starbucks Howard Schultz at present executive chairman has announced he is leaving his position and may run for public office, even perhaps for president as suggested in the appended video. He has been with the company for decades. Schultz is a billionaire.
Previously published in Digital Journal

Monday, July 9, 2018

Using AI the approximate time of death of patients can be predicted

Artificial Intelligence can use data from health records to predict with considerable accuracy when a patient will die. Such information can have a positive use and end up saving lives.

Developing more accurate predictive models
A recent paper published in Nature by a large number of researchers says that feeding data from electronic health records (EHR) into a deep learning model can substantially improve the accuracy of predicted outcomes.
In trials that used data from two U.S. hospitals, the researchers were able to show that the algorithms in the model improved predictions as to the length of stay and time of discharge — but also the time of death of patients.
The neural network in the study uses an immense amount of data, including information about the patient's medical history and vitals. A new algorithm lines up events in the patient's records into a timeline, and this enables the learning model to predict future outcomes such as length of stay and even death. The predictions are made in record time as well.
Uses of the predictions
The predictions may enable the hospital to prioritize patient care, or adjust treatment plans, and even recognize medical emergencies before they happen. It will also free up the time of healthcare workers who had to sift through all this data in order to make less accurate predictions.
Other recently developed algorithms can diagnose lung cancer and heart disease better than human doctors. Another study has fed retinal images into AI algorithms that are able to predict the chances that a patient could develop one or more of three major eye diseases.
One problem is to amass all the data about patients in one central database as the data is often spread widely through various healthcare systems and government agencies often without the data being shared.
Dangers of centralizing patient data
Some worry that collecting this massive amount of personal health data and putting it all into a single model that is owned by Google, one of the largest private companies in the world, could very well create problems. There would need to be guarantees that the data would not be shared. Many companies would be anxious to use the information for their purposes. As the article notes: " Electronic health records of millions of patients in the hands of a small number of private companies could quickly allow the likes of Google to exploit health industries, and become a monopoly in healthcare."
A case for caution
Recently the U.K. government was concerned that DeepMind Health, owned by Alphabet, Google's parent company, was able to exert monopoly power as described in an article in TechCrunch. There had been earlier concerns that DeepMind Health had broken U.K. laws by collecting data on patients without their consent last year.
A group who reviewed the project said: “There are many examples in the IT arena where companies lock their customers into systems that are difficult to change or replace. Such arrangements are not in the interests of the public. And we do not want to see DeepMind Health putting itself in a position where clients, such as hospitals, find themselves forced to stay with DeepMind Health even if it is no longer financially or clinically sensible to do so; we want DeepMind Health to compete on quality and price, not by entrenching legacy position."
Healthcare professions are already worried that AI could have some negative effects on medicine once it is embedded in the system, without precautions taken to ensure transparency. The American Medical Association (AMA), while admitting the benefits AI can bring to medicine, also notes that AI tools must “strive to meet several key criteria, including being transparent, standards-based, and free from bias.” It is not clear how one makes algorithms transparent. The AMA notes that the US regulatory framework is far behind the advance of technology with legislation being passed over two decades ago.
Algorithms can be biased
Algorithms developed for the AI systems can reflect bias, often unconscious, of those who develop them. Many seem to accept algorithms since they are mathematical as objective and unbiased by their very nature. However, as a recent article points out there are biased algorithms everywhere and refers to a statement by the author of the book "Weapons of Math Destruction": "Cathy O’Neil, a mathematician and the author of Weapons of Math Destruction, a book that highlights the risk of algorithmic bias in many contexts, says people are often too willing to trust in mathematical models because they believe it will remove human bias. “[Algorithms] replace human processes, but they’re not held to the same standards,” she says. “People trust them too much.”
Previously published in Digital Journal

Friday, July 6, 2018

US ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft receives suspicious package and death threats

A package containing a suspicious substance and death threats was sent to Kelly Craft, the U.S. ambassador to Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was one of at least two Canadian officials who immediately expressed support for Craft.

A white powder in the package was determined to be harmless. The parcel was discovered by a mail-room employee at the ambassador's residence and police were contacted. A letter full of expletives and with death threats directed at Craft, Trump and Trump's family was also in the package. Officials did not go into further details as to what was in the letter.
Tensions high between Canada and United States
There have been several events that have raised tensions between the two countries. Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum on the grounds that Canada is a security threat is one important source of tension. Canada has responded by imposing equivalent tariffs on US goods including whiskey.
Another, is Trump's failure to support the final communique after the recent meeting of the G7. Trump criticized Trudeau as dishonest and weak after his refusal to sign the joint statement.
The two countries are also unable so far to reach a NAFTA agreement with the US along with Mexico. Trump had been using the threat of tariffs against Canada and Mexico in order to put pressure on the two countries to reach an agreement. The US also has placed tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and has even threatened to put tariffs on the auto sector. Trump regularly complains about Canada's supply management system in the dairy sector. Trump regularly threatens to leave the pact.
The US has also placed tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and has threatened to add tariffs in the auto sector.
The situation was not helped when the White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro said in a Fox News interview on June 10 that there was a special place in hell reserved for Trudeau. He later apologized for his wording. Larry Kudlow, Trump's economic adviser, also supported Trump by claiming that Trudeau "kind of stabbed us in the back".
Trudeau and Freeland react
Trudeau's office said that he called Craft today to check on her welfare Chrystia Freeland, the minister of foreign affairs, in a tweet expressed her support:“I also expressed my support for the Ambassador following the wholly unacceptable threat made against her.She does an essential and difficult job and Canada respects her service.”
Some media members to boycott Craft's 4th of July party
The ambassador's 4th of July bash for US Independence Day typically attracts up to 5,000 people. It will be the first party for the event to be held by Craft who took up her post last October. Usually many MPs and government officials attend. However some prominent Canadian media members say they will not attend and suggested cabinet ministers do likewise.
This year the party celebrates "Red, White, and Bourbon" in deference to Craft's home state of Kentucky noted for its bourbon whiskey. This is somewhat ironic in that the party takes place just a few days after Canada's whiskey tariffs are to go into effect on July 1.


Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Open letter signed by more than 400 Washington Post employees demands fair pay, benefits and job security

An open letter sent by more than 400 Washington Post employees to CEO Jeff Bezos petitioned for fair pay, benefits, and job security. It also criticized present practices calling them shocking.

 1 of 2 
The employees also uploaded a video on You Tube setting forth their position. It is appended to this article.
The Washington Post
The Washington Post was founded on December 6, 1877. It is the largest newspaper published in the United States capital Washington DC. It emphasizes coverage of national politics. Its slogan is "Democracy Dies in Darkness" which appears on its masthead. There are daily broadsheet editions that are printed for the District of Columbia and Maryland.
The paper has won 47 Pulitzer prizes
Jeff Bezos buys the Washington Post

In August of 2013 Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of Amazon, bought the Washington Post for $250 million.
At the time, the current publisher and CEO Katherine Weymouth said:"With Mr. Bezos as our owner, we enter a new era and embrace an exciting future. I look forward to it, and I firmly believe you should as well." Weymouth stayed on as publisher until 2014 when Frederic Ryan Jr. took over where he remains now.
Trump has been a constant critic of Jeff Bezos and also the Washington Post as reported in a recent Digital Journal articleTrump has called the Post the chief lobbyist for Amazon.
The letter notes that the unionized staff under the Washington Post Guild are "extremely grateful" that Jeff Bezos bought the Post when he did but the employees want better pay, benefits, as well as job security.
The petition claims: "All we are asking for is fairness for each and every employee who contributed to this company's success,Fair wages, fair benefits for retirement, family leave and health care; and a fair amount of job security." The employees claim that negotiations with the Guild's bargaining committee have been ongoing for more than a year.
Some benefits have been gained. This includes a right to ask for pay review based on the possibility of gender or minority-based pay discrimination. However, employees complain that top management has not been willing to meet them half-way on many issues they they consider important.
One issue is the rate of pay. Management is offering a pay raise of ten dollars a week but employees complain that this is below the present inflation rate. The employees also mentioned that there was a refusal to increase retirement benefits. The management is also demanding that laid-off employees waive their legal right to receive severance payments. The Washington Post has refused to comment on the letter so far. The petition can be found here.


Previously published in Digital Journal

US will bank Tik Tok unless it sells off its US operations

  US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said during a CNBC interview that the Trump administration has decided that the Chinese internet app ...