The Middle East Eye had a recent interview with Mattia Toaldo, Policy Felllow for the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Mohamed Eljarh, non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
|The two analysts are asked a number of questions in an attempt to make sense of the complex series of happenings in Libya. The whole interview is well worth reading in its entirety and much superior to the reporting in most coverage of Libyan events in my opinion. Toaldo gives an interesting account of why the Libya Dawn militia did not come out in support of the Tripoli government and mount a fight against the GNA when it arrived in Tripoli.|
Some people in Libya fear that the GNC might try to take the lead [in the GNA] because of the HOR not moving forward with its implementation. They fear that some Europeans and the United States might say "okay, the HOR doesn't want to play ball, the GNC State Council has been purged of its hardliners, so let's work with the GNC".Toaldo thinks that will not happen because the HoR has the backing of Egypt and the UAE. He does not think France or Italy will go against the wishes of these supporters of the HoR. Actually, they are supporters of Khalifa Haftar the commander in chief of the Libyan National Army who virtually controls the HoR. Some might worry that members of the Muslim Brotherhood could dominate "Libyan politics" but Toaldo thinks this unlikely. What could happen however is that to bring the HoR on board and support the GNA, the UN might allow Haftar to keep his position and if this happens the GNA might implode with Islamists and many others leaving.
Article 8 of the additional provisions states that all senior military positions would be reset as soon as the agreement is signed, but that has not been the case because the House of Representatives about seven weeks ago met and voted to drop Article 8 or freeze it completely. I think that will be one of the sticking points there. But my reading is that there will be a compromise and that we will see Article 8 frozen or dropped altogether and then we will see the GNA approved.
All powers of the senior military, civil and security posts stipulated in the Libyan legislations and laws in force shall be transferred to the Presidency Council of the Council of Ministers immediately upon signing this Agreement.This appears to say that the power of commander in chief is transferred to the PC. As I argued in an article back in the middle of January. Haftar lost his job back on December 17. Is that incorrect? Exactly why?
2. Terms of Reference of the Presidency Council of the Council of Ministers: a. Assume the functions of the Supreme Commander of the Libyan army