I wonder how "objective" the polling organisations are when they seem to vary a considerable amount. Overall the polls would indicate a clear Labor victory. Rudd is not all that different in many policies although he will withdraw troops from Iraq. The Australian labor party has swung quite far to the right. Almost every social democratic and labor party has opted for some variation of the third way so that there really is no sharp choice between right and left. This should be called the law of the exclusive middle!
Two out of three polls back a Labor win
Friday Nov 23 09:43 AEDT
Two out of three polls released on the eve of the federal election predict a clear win for Labor, but a third shows John Howard still in with a chance.
The latest Galaxy poll has Prime Minister John Howard in with a chance, while a Nielsen poll has the coalition facing annihilation, and a Morgan poll says the ALP will win in a close contest despite a swing towards the coalition.
The telephone poll conducted by Roy Morgan research on November 21 and 22 showed that on a two-party preferred, support for the coalition had risen one point to 45.5 per cent, while support for the ALP had dropped one point to 54.5 per cent.
This represented a swing of 7.2 points to the ALP since the 2004 Federal election, spokesman Gary Morgan said.
However, in 22 key coalition marginal seats, where Labor needed to grabbed 16 seats to win government, the swing was less at 5.2 points to the ALP, he said.
Sixty-three per cent of voters polled thought the ALP would win Saturday's federal election, compared to 22.5 per cent who backed the coalition to win, while 14.5 per cent were undecided.
"With a day to go, the ALP is set to win the federal election," Mr Morgan said.
"Marginal seat polling in 22 coalition seats finds the ALP three per cent ahead: 51.5 per cent compared to (the coalition's) 48.5 per cent," he said.
"This suggests an ALP gain of between 14 and 20 seats even with the likelihood of Labor losing a seat in Western Australia."
The latest Galaxy poll of 1,200 voters was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday for News Ltd - before the revelations of a bogus leaflet scandal that threatens to hand a key marginal Sydney seat to Labor.
It found the coalition stands at 48 per cent with Labor on 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, with both parties even in the primary vote stakes on 42.5 per cent.
But the poll conflicts with the Nielsen poll of 2,071 voters taken between Monday and Wednesday for Fairfax's Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers.
It found Labor leads the primary vote by 48 per cent to 40 per cent, giving it a two-party preferred lead of 57 per cent to 43 per cent.
The figures represent a 10-point swing to Labor since the 2004 election, more than twice what Labor needs to win the 16 seats it must pick up to form government.
According to the Galaxy poll, 62 per cent of voters expect a Labor victory compared to 25 per cent who expect the coalition to win.
Labor leader Kevin Rudd was preferred prime minister on 51 per cent of the vote, compared to Mr Howard on 43 per cent.
Mr Rudd was also judged to have been the best on the campaign trail by 57 per cent of voters, with just a 27 per cent support for Mr Howard.
The poll also found half of voters questioned said they were better off than three years ago, 29 per cent said they were worse off and 44 per cent said they were under financial stress.